A Month to Go...

A lot of talk has been going around about the upcoming Breeding Season, I am a culprit of this as much as the next person, but let us not forget that there are a lot of more races to be completed before we look to the future stars.

In about a month (game-time), all eyes will turn to Churchill Downs for the running of the 2008 Breeder’s Cup. It is once last chance for the years best to gather at one racetrack and prove themselves – at least to the eyes of the Eclipse voters – who is the best of the best. Rivals have been won and lost, and Eclipse Champions decided here… but who will come out the winner?

We’ll take a look at some top candidates for the upcoming races… Hopefully I’ll get through them all before race day (If anyone else wants to contribute they would be most welcome!)

I’ll be covering the races in the following order: Classic, Turf, Endurance, Sprint, Distaff, Mile, Filly/Mare Turf, Juvenile, and Juvenile Filly. Why? Not sure… but, again, if anyone wants to cover a race I have already done, or one that I have not gotten around to, then by all means do – if you are a regular staff member, or want to e-mail your article… shahmat_amal@hotmail.com for those daring enough to put our their predictions…

Enough of that… down to business. Nine Races… and $15,000,000 (that is a total of $9 million dollars to the winners). The richest race, The Classic, is a test for 3 year olds and up at 10 furlongs on the dirt. It has a purse of $4,000,000 ($2,400,000 to the horse that crosses the line first).

But who will show up? And better yet, who will win it? Here is my Top 3 (listed in no particular order) for this year's Breeder's Cup Classic:

A BUS – (Fields of Omagh x Unworldly) This 4 year old bay colt bred and owned by Port Pirie Racing is the reigning Horse of the Year, Champion 3 Year old Colt, Champion Male Turf, and Breeder's Cup Turf winner. He is the only current racer in the Top 10 overall, and is closing in on 2nd placed THUNDER ARTIC. Last year he ran in the BC Turf, but we think his connections may choose to enter him in the Breeder's Cup Classic this year.

He's had a stellar year this year, with a record of 9:6-3-0 bringing home $3,697,500. His biggest win was the G1 Melbourne Cup at 16 furlongs, where he won by nearly 17 lengths on a sloppy track. The longer the distace, the better this colt gets... so why would his connections send him to a 10 furlong race? The Horse of the Year is up for grabs... and a 3 year old filly has recently come out on top...

PERFECT BELL (Bellbuster x Perfect Arc) This 3 year old bay filly bred and owned by Rainbow has dominated the 3 year old division and is stepping out of her class. She has a record of 8:7-0-1 with $5,139,200 in earnings. Her only flaw came in the Belmont Stakes, but she has proven herslef time and again since.

Her biggest win this season came a few weeks ago in the Arlington Million, a race for 3 year olds and up over 10 furlongs on the turf. She narrowly beat A BUS for the win over PEGASUS SONG, LED ASTRAY, AND LAZY LOPER. Earlier in the year she faced A BUS in the Caufield Cup over 12 furlongs and beat him yet again, by the narrowest of margins. But is there an older filly who may beat them both to the wire?

PEGASUS SONG (Fusaichi Pegasus x Serena's Song) This 4 year old filly was the Perfect Bell of last year. She won the Kentucky Derby, opting for the Open U.S. Triple Crown, and then later in the year won the Breeder's Cup Distaff. She has a lifetime record of $9,510,000 18-12-4-1 which places her 13th on the overall Top 25. She's had a stellar year this year, coming home with $5,550,000 in six races (6:4-1-1), which places her at the top of the Top 10 4 Year Olds for 2008. She may also be similar to A Bus, and opt to race in the Classic this year, instead of defending last's year BC win.

Her biggest win of the season came in the G1 Dubai World Cup, where she won by nearly 3 lengths over Lazy Loper; but more than that she ran an outstanding time of 1:58.28 - posting the best time of the year for 10 furlongs. She did lose to Perfect Bell in the Arlington Million, coming in a solid third, but that race was on turf, and anyone could see that it was not her preferred surface. On the dirt track in Kentucky she may give us a better showing...

But will there be an upset? These horses may be up for the challenge...

RAPIDO (Spanish Midnight x Take Charge Lady) This Bonai bred colt is currently races for FDL Lodge; he is one of the few foals by the Kentucky Derby and Breeder's Cup Classic winner SPANISH MIDNIGHT. He has a decent lifetime record of $626,400 20-1-3-2, but has only managed to come in the money thrice this year. His only win came from the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes earlier in the year.

His owner, Finlay, known for sending a large contingent to Breeder's Cup week, has stated that this 3 year old colt may be on his way to Churchill Downs for this $4 million race; although, they say that his chances aren't very good.

We believe that this colt will have to find a whole other level if he'll be able to race with Pegasus Song, A Bus and Perfect Bell. His only race at 10 furlongs this year he was clocked at 2:03.21 - it simply won't cut it to Pegasus Song's 1:58.28, Perfect Bell's 1:58.62 or A Bus' 1:58.67.

ENLIGHTENMENT (Sakhee x Open Mind) This 3 year filly was bred by Stonewall Stables, but is under Watch This Space's management. This filly isn't listed here because she is a champion racer with an impeccable record, but due to her potential.

She isn't on any Top Ten, and has a lifetime record of $1,248,550 20-7-2-2. Not great... but on August 16 she won the G1 Alabama Stakes, a race over 10 furlongs by 8 lengths with a time of 1:58.38. Now, my math may be wrong, but I think that is just 1/10th of a second off of Pegasus Song's top time for 10 furlongs, and that it beats both Perfect Bell's and A Bus' top times for 10 furlongs.

Now, here comes the disclaimer... she hasn't run with those champions, hasn't stared them down coming home in the final stretch, and she has been a bit inconsistent this year. However, if she can put up those kind of numbers, well she has some speed in her feet.

LED ASTRAY (Our Differences x Astra) This 3 year old filly bred by American Acres and trained at Hopeful Farm is this year's Belmont Stakes winner, and one of the best 3 year olds around. She is 7th on the 2008 Top Ten list for 3 year olds, with a 2008 record of $1,855,000 with 8:4-0-1, her three off the board races she placed 4th.

One of those 4th place finishes came in the Arlington Park where she placed a game 4th to Perfect Bell, A Bus, and Pegasus Song, which is her only race at 10 furlongs. That day she posted a time of 1:59.22 - not as good as we've seen, but very respectable.

If she runs in the Classic, don't expect to find her too far from the leaders. She is a game filly who has been strong this entire year, and had a good run in the Arlington Million. However, here is a filly that we believe would excel at longer distances.

LAZY LOPER (Menacing Dennis x Lazy Slusan) This 4-year-old colt was bred by Snowbank Farm and is trained at Bonai Farms. He has a record of 25:16-5-2 with $6,670,000 in lifetime earnings, which puts him in the Top 25 Overall, and 4th in the Top 10 for Lifetime 4 year olds, and 3rd in the Top 10 for 2008 4 year olds.

If Lazy Loper goes to this year's Breeder's Cup it'll be his first and last time, as he is retiring at the end of the year. This colt has had a good season thus far, only running worse than 3rd once.

Earlier in the year, in the G1 Hollywood Gold Cup ran 2nd to Pegasus Song, less than 2 lengths back, and posted a time of 1:58.63. He has the speed and endurance to post an excellent time at 10 furlongs on dirt, but will he be able to pull it out in the face of the Top 3?

Coming up... Breeder's Cup Turf