Why some horses are like a fine wine

I wanted to take a minute and give credit where credit is due.

When I first started playing in Photo Finish (not that long ago), I felt it necessary to purchase as many 3yo horses as I could in hopes as to catch them when they were maturing in ordered to win some races. Since then, my strategy has changed drastically. I have been keeping a close eye on one horse in particualr, Pleasant Galaxy, and he has inspired me to say the least. I have the utmost respect for Oak Tree Stables for keeping this horse on the track and in the stable.

I read a great article back in April by Ostego "Young vs. Old" and I couldn't agree more with his perspective. I personally purchased a great horse last auction (Naive) from Karie at KRF stables and he has already surpassed all my other younger horses in money earned. Here are some horses from the "06" season and there records taken from Amanda's PP's.

1. Waddlin Moon-- age 6yo, 12-0-4-7 $277,350
2. Thief of Hearts-- age 6yo, 14-2-2-3 $495,000
3. Sunday Rose-- age 6yo, 11-1-3-4 $306,250
4. Zoborra-- age 6yo, 17-7-4-2 $1,485,900
5. Pleasent Galaxy-- age 7yo, 9-1-1-1 $121,600
6. Palm Island-- age 6yo, 12-5-1-1 $1,583,500
7. Brave Trick-- age 6yo, 11-2-4-2 $900,000
8. Sister Glory-- age 6yo, 4-1-1-2 $300,000
9. Promised Land-- age 6yo, $1,401,500

Please don't think that these horses only ran against themselves, they ran against some of the best horses in the league at this time and averaged anywhere from a 3 horse field to a 19 horse field.

I would strongly suggest that new stables look into these hidden treasures

I know if I had to do it over again I would look at older proven horses rather than rolling the dice on 2 and 3 year olds.

Submitted by Jamie Calloway - Sunset Ranch (Posted by Nancy Newmarket)

How Much Is A Win Worth?

Several responses this week to the results have prompted me to ask this question “How much is a win really worth”? Do you measure the win purely in monetary terms, or by the prestige, who your horse beat or just simply enjoy the feeling of winning?

Lets start off with a new player, Jamie Calloway of Sunset Ranch. He has been playing for a few months and has been a vibrant contributer to the forum but so far none of his horses have managed to find the winners circle, not through bad management just simply his horses were finding a few too good/fast. This week he entered his 4yr old colt, G Major in a 4 furlong (1/2mile) Starter Allowance on the dirt. G Major was sent off the 9/4 joint favourite and fully justified the bettor’s faith by winning by 2 lengths and earning $12,000 in the process. OK wasn’t a $million dollar purse, nor was it a G1 Triple Crown race but to Jamie it must have felt as good as and why shouldn’t it? The first win is always the hardest and the longest savoured. He was quoted on the Forum as saying “we finally got our very first WIN, our new purchase from HT Stables looked very good yesterday all be it a grade 4 sprint he came in first place paying off his purchase price, we are very excited with this colt and think he has a great future ahead, since he brought home our very first, first place trophy he will be a part of our stable for a very long time”. And no one can begrudge him this feeling.

OK – so we have had the debut winner, lets move on to a more experienced stable with a win that’s been a little harder to come by. I am talking about the highly successful FDL Lodge stables who have had several high profile winners over the years, including All For Camena, Madam De Francis and Braveheart to name but a few. This week he sent out one of their highest priced purchases, St Cay, who is a half brother to a Melbourne Cup winner (Bally Doyle’s Case Closed) both being out of the mare, Grinders Daughter. According to stable sources, St Cay has been a little frustrating since his purchase and been tried over a variety of trips and surfaces but not quite fulfilling the potential he shows in the mornings. He was entered for the G1 CF Orr Stakes, over 7f on the turf open to 2yr olds and up. He was sent off the 5/2 joint second favourite behind Godolphins Half Speed who was Evens. At the end of the race, St Cay was the winner by just under a length from Half Speed and his win meant a further $250,000 added to the account of FDL Lodge. How can we tell this meant so much to a stable who enjoys success at this level regularly? This is how - “the most satisfying of the trio of wins has to go to the $2 million purchase St Cay who eventually paid his dues with a fine win at the top level. This brought me a lot of joy.” – not the comments of a stable who expects wins every time out, just the elation of having picked a horse out based on its raw talents and nuturing him along to get the best out of him on the track.

Then there was the win from a horse who does nothing but win, but this time winning at a distance never tried before. The horse in question is Scenic Sheba from the stable of Foxies Lodge (like FDL before based in Australia). She has been doing most of her winning over 8f and has an impressive set of G1 victories to her name but her owners felt that that wasn’t the end of her talents and had been looking around for a suitable 10f turf race for her which would attract a good field for her to be tested to the maximum. So this game 4yr old mare was entered in the $200,000 purse G2 New York Handicap over 1 1/4miles (10f) on turf. Several quality mares opposed her including the 1000 Guineas winner from England, Unbridled Analysis and the two tough and consistent fillies of April Carrot (Parklands) and She’s A Prize (Bonai Farms). The outcome was never in doubt as Scenic Sheba routed the field, leading from start to finish and setting a new track record. (Oh and earning the small matter of $120,000). That wasn’t the cause for the joy in the winners enclosure, it was the fact that the mare had got a win over a distance many said was too far, against good opponents and several other reasons as to why she couldn’t win. Foxies Lodge was moved enough to post the following “Well what else can i say stepped up to 10F for the 1st time runs a 1:59:02 in TR time with some still left beating last years BC F/M Turf winner over 10f in She`s A Prize ... New record of $4,110,950 20-14-2-2 ... What cant she do?”

Another stable celebrating a win for different reasons was Bally Doyle from England who had the winner of a 2yr old Starter Allowance. Not that exciting you ask but when you look at the card you will see that it was a homebred colt called Knight of Ni who won at his 4^th attempt and over 7f on a dirt track against a full field of horses. He dropped out early but made startling progress late in the race to win in the last 16^th of a mile from two very well regarded horses in Play Nice (Port Pirie) and Faldo (FDL Lodge). He may have only won $21,000 and lowest grade race in the game but a stable representative was overheard in the winners enclosure as saying “nothing beats breeding your own stock, racing it and having it win” . So looks like some players take as much pleasure from breeding winners (even if they no longer own them) as to actually winning a race. (Also on the card Bally Doyle sent out another homebred Rain Man to win a G2 race).

Nothing can take away from the feeling of euphoria felt when you have that first win in Photo Finish, be it winning a Triple Crown race (or even the Triple Crown itself!), a triumph at the Breeders Cup or even a $5,000 Starter Allowance! Or perhaps they take the pleasure in breeding the winners of racers rather than racing them personally?

So does that help explain How Much A Win is Worth? No – well that’s the point! A win means many different things to many different players. Some players believe that a G1 win is the only win that counts, others that it’s the money value of a race that makes a good win great, some feel that its how the horse won that’s important and so on and so forth.

But its all agreed that once you have that winning feeling than it’s a feeling worth repeating again and again and.....

July Cup

This week's featured race is the $400,000 G1 July Cup. It will be the 5th running of the Newmarket race for horses 3 and up. The previous winners of the race:

• 2005: Dansilver - 1:09.19 (111 PSR)
• 2006: Kendane - 1:09.66 (105)
• 2007: Levicorpus - 1:09.53 (106)
• 2008: Attack At Dawn - 1:08.89 (115)

A few more blurbs before we get to this year's race:

• Kendane won this race as a 6YO.
• The race has been run on "Firm" turf every year but 2006, when it was run on "Firm to Good".
• All of the previous races have been pretty competitive with winning margins in lengths of 1.95 (Fine Memories), 1.75 (Court's Guru), 2.35 (With Imagine), and 3.85 (Miss Bust).
• The field sizes for the previous runnings: 9, 6, 7, and 10.
• The winning post positions: 9, 3, 5, and 4.
• This race has produced two of the top-100 for the distance/surface. Attack At Dawn's winning time checks in as the 21st best. Dansilver's time was good for 58th.

Now, for this year's lineup...

• Blazing Risk: 8 wins from 27 career starts. A 108 PSR average on the year, and you only have the 4th best average in the race! This race is loaded...at the top end at least. Two wins in eight starts for this one on the year. Coming off a very impressive performance last out in The Australia Stakes. He covered the 6 furlongs on a "Good" track in 1:08.87 (118 PSR), which was the 17th best all-time. He also has one other top-100 time, 70th in last year's Foster's Cup (1:09.28). His only other start at this distance/surface this year was in his season debut. He finished 5th in 1:10.03 (96 PSR). This will be his first start at the track. He should be right near the lead from the start, and has an excellent shot.
• Miss Bust: It's only taken her 20 starts to get her 9 wins. Having an excellent year so far. Three wins in six tries. She also has 2 second place finishes where she had PSR's of 123 and 120! World Record holder at 5.5 (set in her season debut this yar) and 7 furlongs. Has only tried this distance once this year (her last race), winning the Gold Jubilee Stakes in 1:08.67 (119 PSR), the 7th best time ever. She's run four times in her career at this surface/distance garnering three wins (3rd, 7th, and 37th best times) and one second in last year's July Cup (109th best). This will be her third career start at the track. Besides last year's second in this race, she also had an 8th place finish in a mile race on a "Yielding" track. Her PSR average here is 91. Just going by her record at this distance/surface, she has to be the one to beat here.
• Returnofthedancer: Just fast enough to lose? Only 3 wins from 23 starts in his career, but 11 seconds! This year it's more of the same...consistently fast, and only one win to show for it. Won his debut, going 6 turf furlongs in 1:08.90 (22nd best, 113 PSR). Then ran a 119 PSR over 7 furlongs (1:21.69, 16th best), and finished 3rd. Next out, he switched to 6 on the dirt for the Dubai Golden Shaheen. He ran 1:08.57 (48th best, 102 PSR) and finished 11th! That's just a crazy fast race. His last time out was back to 6 on the turf. He ran a career best time of 1:08.70 (8th best, 118 PSR), but had the misfortune of being in the same race as Miss Bust (and screwing around some in the stretch)...losing by a neck. This will be his debut on this track. Can he turn the tables on Miss Bust? Maybe. Depends on whether he can keep his mind on the task at hand.
• Scenic Sky: Two career starts, both this year. Two times coming in dead last. Beaten by 24 and 28 lengths. Has never tried a sprint before. You'd have to believe there are better places for this one to be. Don't see any way that he doesn't get pummeled.
• Silver Inside: 7YO has had a busy little (and decent) career...6 wins from 61 starts. Half his wins have come this year in 9 starts. This race is just well above his level though. The best he's ever run at this surface/distance is 1:09.94 (223rd best), and that came two years ago. His best this year is 1:10.39 (428th), and that's from four tries. He tried this race last year, and finished 9th of 10...18 lengths back. He ran 14 days ago at Shenandoah Downs, finishing 4th. Luckily, he will scratch as his connections were looking for a guaranteed check. This old warrior deserves better.
• Unknown Direction: Unknown is a fitting name for this horse. He's had a decent career (4 for 28), and probably not too many people realize it. Two of his wins have come this year from 9 starts. That being said, I seriously doubt this is the place for him. First off, he ran 15 days ago...and lost to a 2YO. Secondly, his best ever time for this distance/surface came this year...1:09.65 (144th best, 101 PSR). He's run on this track once before, coming in third in last year's 2000 Guineas (91 PSR). I think this horse has some talent, but he'll need to run his eyeballs out to even get a small piece of this one.
• Victory Dance: She just keeps going and going. 26 wins from 68 starts...just an amazing career. This year, she's only 1 for 5. But, she's still running fast times. She's run twice on dirt at this distance and posted the 2nd and 10th best times ever. She tried 7 furlongs on the turf (141st best) and on the dirt (21st best). Her last time out was at this distance/surface. She finished third (behind Miss Bust and Returnofthedancer) in 1:09.19 (57th best, 111 PSR). In her long and illustrious career, she's started three times previously on this track (2 of them coming as a 2YO), getting two wins (both at this distance) and a second. Her PSR average here is 99. While she might be nearing the tail end of her career, it's obvious that she still is fast enough to win this. I don't think she will win this one, but it would be a huge upset if she doesn't run well and grab a nice check.
• This should be a really good one, and if the top-four are on their games (and the track cooperates), Alytrain's World Record (1:08.19) could be in play. Who to pick for the win though? Miss Bust or Returnofthedancer? Returnofthedancer or Miss Bust? Hmmmmmm. Let's go out on a limb and say the Returnofthedancer stays focused in the stretch this time, and edges out Miss Bust. Victory Dance and Blazing Risk for the next two spots, with Victory Dance just catching Blazing Risk before the wire.

Power Rankings

It's been a little while since I posted one of these, and now you're going to get two! I started the article on Friday evening, added the top-25 spreadsheet, and never got around to finishing and posting it. Well, right after the results were posted on Saturday, I added all the new results into the Power Rankings sheet and came up with the revised numbers. So, now what do I do? Do I just go ahead and delete the article already started? And then the answer hit me...why not just post BOTH lists so we can see how the week's racing affected it?!

• That's pretty tough when you win a race...and drop 13 points. Broken Dream's G2 win was only worth 3.15 points, so that put a big hurt on her average points score. Then the race strength only checked in at 3.46, causing a significant drop in her average race strength.
• Isca's Revenge is creeping up on first...by sitting on the sidelines. Only three races so far this year. I know they already faced once (and Broken Dream won it fairly easily), but wouldn't it be nice to see them go again?
• The first actual change in the order of the list comes from a horse that also won this week (and dropped a spot), Scenic Sheba. Same situation as Broken Dream. Her G2 win was only worth 1.8 points, and the race strength was only 1.37.
• Next comes the big gainer on the week, Bold N' Honorable. A G1 win worth 9 points, and a short field that gave him his best race strength score of the year, 2.87, did the trick.
• The big drop for the week goes to Victory Dance. Despite a race that kept her average race strength faily stable, scoring 0 points (4th place finish) caused a big enough drop in her average points to cause her to tumble 5 spots.
• We had one horse dropping out of the top-25, Arctic Memories, and one horse joining, Confederation. Arctic Memories is actually in the 26th spot now at 4.91. It's a bit of tough luck for Arctic Memories, as he picked up 3.6 for his G2 win causing his average points to increase slightly. He ended up getting his lowest race strength of the year though, .95, causing a big enough overall loss to drop him out of the top-25. Confederation takes advantage by finishing second his last two starts in big point races to top-25 horses (Jenny's My Gal and Bold N' Honorable).

2009 average PSR's

There will be a new Power Ranking list coming out this week. To give you something to peruse until I get to that though, I figured I'd post PSR average lists broken down by age and sex. If your horse has run this year, it will be listed. You just might have to do some scrolling to find it. Enjoy!

A Gleam Handicap

This week's featured race comes to us from Hollywood Park. This will be the 6th installment of the 7 furlong race for fillies and mares. In it's history, there have been a few things that can be counted on. The race will be run on a "fast" track and the winner will need to be fast (100+ PSR each year). The list of previous winners looks like this:

• 2003: Royal Dame - 1:22.33 (101 PSR)
• 2004: Flying Roller Girl - 1:21.02 (119)
• 2005: Lava Drop - 1:21.84 (106)
• 2007: Irene's Affair - 1:21.39 (113)
• 2008: Miss Fitz - 1:22.05 (103)

Let's continue with some fast facts before we get to this year's race.

• At the time, Flying Roller Girl's effort was the World Record mark.
• The smallest field was in the inaugural race when only two horses went to the post. The very next year brought the largest field as ten horses gave it a shot. The other fields were then three, seven, and six.
• The smallest winning margin came in last year's race, as Miss Fitz beat Floating by 1.25 lengths. The largest winning distance came in the 2005 version, with Lava Drop besting 2003 winner, Royal Dame, by 14.5 lengths.
• The first three winners all came from the number one post position. Since then, the winners have come from the number 3 and 4 holes.
• The race has produced three of the top-100 times for the distance. Flying Roller Girl's win checks in at 11th, Irene's Affair's effort was good for 56th, and Unbridled Energy's second place effort in 2004 put her in 63rd.

Ok, on to this year's version...

• Ab-Daledigeath: In the midst of a nice season. Two wins from six starts, plus two other on the board finishes. Coming off a win at this same track in the 6 furlong Los Angeles Handicap. Ran that one in a track record 1:07.89 (111 PSR). This will be her 4th start at this distance/surface on the year. The first two were very impessive: a win in 1:21.34 (51st best all-time) and a second in 1:21.00 (10th best). The third time definitely wasn't a charm though, finishing last in 1:23.37. It wasn't a rest issue or an injury issue. I'd guess maybe a track thing, but she performed decent enough on the track the previous year in the Breeders Cup Sprint. So, who knows? Just one of those things, I guess. It'd be a lot more worrisome if she hadn't been so impressive last time out. She has run this distance at this track previously. Only a 5th place finish in the Railbird Stakes last year, but in a decent enough time (1:22.15, 100 PSR). It's going to take a very good performance to beat her...unless she has another of those "just one of those things" days.
• Causality: One win from four tries on the season. The win came in her initial start of the season. She followed that with three fairly comparable efforts, just without much to show for it. Has yet to try this distance this year...at least on dirt. Her last start was over 7 furlongs on the turf, where she finished 4th in the Jungle Dawn Classic in 1:23.71. This will be her first ever start at this track. She has just two previous efforts at this distance/surface. One was an uninspriring effort on a muddy track, but the other was an impressive 2nd in 1:21.77 (128th best). Duplicating her best effort would definitely put her in the mix, but I'm thinking that a high 1:21 won't be good enough in this field.
• Clever Critter: Dropping down in distance after three straight runs of 8.5 furlongs to start the year. The last one was over this track and resulted in a nice 3rd (103 PSR). She has actually shown quite an affinity for the track in her career with a record of 4:2-1-1 with an average PSR of 102. She will be making just her 4th start at this distance/surface. Actually, she will be making her yearly start at this distance/surface. That's right, she did it once at 2, once at 3, once at 4, and now this year. She does have two wins from the three starts, but her times have gotten slower each year. Her best was at 2, when she ran 1:22.76 (468th). I'm actually quite surprised by her times. With her speed, I'd think she'd be a natural for this distance. Maybe it was just circumstances. She did win her first one by open lengths (8.5) after all. Considering her past efforts at this track, I think you have to figure her for some kind of check in this one.
• Daydreamer: WARNING! The following is not for the thin of skin or faint of heart. If that applies to you, please use your own discretion before going on this ride. You have been warned. Enter at your own risk... Ok, to start with, this is nothing against the trainer of this particular horse. They've just happened to show up in the entries of this races with some perfect material for me to go on a rant about. Take a look at Daydreamer's average PSR column. To average 55 in six starts is not a good sign. Either the horse is outside their peak (before or after) or is just plain bad. There is another possibility though...mismanagement. This horse doesn't particularly like turf. It definitely isn't it's best surface. Yet, her first five starts of the year were on turf. Now, there are horses out there that have to run on surfaces that aren't exactly ideal becuase no surface is really ideal for them. I've had a few of those myself...it happens. But this one actually LOVES "fast" dirt, which as we all know (or should) is what the overwhelming majority of dirt races end up being. Now, there's nothing wrong with trying out the other surface on occasion, even if it isn't ideal. But, to consistently do it (and unsuccessfully at that) when there's a better option being ignored? Why? Those preferences do mean something. All things being equal, you're more likely to get a better performance from your horse on the surface they prefer. Even to those who don't have the HRFan software, there is a wealth of information available...from the past performance sheets, to all those that are always offering help on the forum and chat, to those that are willing to express opinions about horses. That being said, not only were this horse's first five starts this year on turf, they were also all at least a mile (4 - 1 mile starts and 1 - 1 9/16 miles!). So what you might say? Well, this horse's stamina is listed as "Poor". I will grant you, that these are just a guide and there's nothing wrong with pushing the envelope a little to see what the true limit is. But, when it's shown once (or twice even) that it is in fact a true "Poor", then what exactly is the point in continuing to do it? Trying to force square pegs into round holes generally doesn't work too well. Now, I can already hear some of the objections to the criticism I levied here..."but, how can you be so harsh when the horse has picked up checks in four of those five starts?" That is true. Four checks in five starts is welcome in any stable...especially the newer ones. I will say this though. Without access to previous race cards, I can't tell if this is the case here or not, but sticking horses in where they don't belong (this horse did finish dead last in all five races...trounced in three and well-beaten in all)...hoping for a small field (guaranteed check) just rubs me the wrong way. I understand the concept, but I don't see how there can be any enjoyment at all in doing it that way. I'd much rather see one of my horses run a really nice race, show some ability, and just miss out on a check than run dead last, beaten by 26 lengths, post a 16 PSR, and pick up a 4th place check. Maybe it's just me though. I have one more thing to counter the 4 out of 5 checks people. When this horse was placed where she belongs her last time out (on dirt and very short), she actually showed some ability (a decent time and a career best PSR of 86), beat some horses to the line for the first time all year (finsishing a nice 2nd), and picked up a bigger check than she did in all those other races. Kind of makes you wonder what her year may have looked like had she been placed like that all along, eh? Ok, that's enough for the ranting. Time to get down off the soapbox, put it away, and get back to the race at hand. Northern Lights - hopefully, you don't take this this wrong way. Like I said, it just provided a bunch of "hot button" material for me to "go off" on. Hopefully, it ends up helping someone out there. Anyway, take it for what's it's worth....I'm sure some consider it the ravings of a madman. Oh yeah, this horse will be scratching out of this one and heading to another spot that's probably a bit more appropriate for her...a lower level, same age horses, shorter distance, and it'll give her a few more days rest. She has a better chance to do well in that race than she would have here.
• Dynamica: Turf horse trolling for a check way above her level. Thankfully, will be scratching out and heading to a much more appropriate place for her.
• Hell Hath No Fury: 1:23.25, 1:23.24, and 1:24.49, if I told you that these were three of her most recent times at this distance, you'd probably think the rest of this comment would be why she doesn't belong here. Well, they are and I'm not. 7 furlongs is right in this one's wheelhouse. I don't know what to say about those times. They shocked me when I saw them. The last two are from consecutive races this year, and I'm still ready to give her a pass for them. Why is that? Well, she did bounce back in her last outing to run a 1:21.31 (her 2nd best ever and 44th on the all-time list). Plus, she's had a couple of really nice performances at 8.5 furlongs right in the middle of that lackluster 7 furlong run. Besides the 44th best time, she has two other top-100 times with 1:21.18 being her best (30th). In addition, she has two other sub-1:22 times that aren't top-100. See, the distance is right in her wheelhouse...she's just happened to throw some clunkers in along the way too (more than just those three mentioned actually). She's run this distance at this track twice before (the aforementioned other two sub-1:22 times) coming in 2nd and 4th. Her only other appearance at the track was in a win at 8.5 furlongs (also mentioned previously). Her PSR average at the track is almost 105. As long as she doesn't throw in one of those clunkers (which she's avoided at this track so far), you have to figure she's one of the live shots in this one.
• Perfect Burn: This sure seems like a completely random place for this one to show up. This will only be her 4th start since the end of her 2YO season, and just her second this year. She's never come close to winning a race...11 lengths is the closest she's ever finished. Her career best PSR is at this distance. But, it's a 70. She's run this distance one time in her career and finished in 1:24.23. She finished 9th of 11 starters in her last race...and that was in a Starter Allowance at Shenandoah Downs. I'm not sure what else there is to say. Kind of looks like a thrown away entry fee when you add it all up.
• Rose: Coming into this year, she had only ever won at 8.5 furlongs. Well, she looked awful when she tried that distance earlier this year. It does make one wonder if she's on the downside of her career. She did post a win this year at 6 furlongs, though it was only in a decent time (1:09.97, 80 PSR). She's tried 7 furlongs twice in her career. Once was as a 2YO, and isn't all that relevant. The other was this year, and she did it in 1:22.44 (337th best) finishing 7 lengths behind Ab-Daledigaeth. She's raced three times at this track, finishing 1st, 3rd, and 11th. Her average PSR here is 96. With her speed, I think she would have been a really interesting 7 furlong horse...last year. She does seem to be on the downside though. With some of these in this one, that's not good.
• Run With The Bulls: Another horse trolling for a check, but this one is probably scratching into an even worse race for her...an open race (i.e. against males) at a distance that's probably just too far for her. It might be lucky for the connections that I do the horses alphabetically, as I've already gotten my big rant off my chest. This one has actually tried 7 furlongs before, and finished in 1:28.91. That's like a zip code away from where the winner of this one will finish. Actually, this one has always pretty much finished a zip code away from the leader...until her only start this year at Shenandoah Downs. Anyone can feel free to file this away for further use. If your horse gets trounced everywhere else, but happens to run a close race at Shenandoah Downs, that isn't a sign to go try the "everywhere elses" again...it's a sign to stick at Shenandoah Downs.
• Smart Habit: She's back on a decent amount of rest this time, which should make her quite a threat in this one. Two wins from six starts this year, including that super-impressive win at a mile two starts back. Why super-impressive? It was the 6th best time ever run and it wasn't done on the best track (just a "good" rating). She has run once at this distance this year, finishing second to Ab-Daledigaeth (I think I've finally learned how to spell this without looking it up now!) by three lengths in 1:21.89 (161st best). Her only other start at this distance came in her second career start as a 2YO...not a lot to take out of that one that will have any bearing on this one. Her only career start at this track came last time out, where previously discussed rest issues adversely affected her causing a last place finish. Could this be where she gets her revenge?
• One could make a case for any of three or four different horses to prevail in this one. I think I'll go with maybe a bit of an upset in some people's eyes. Give me Smart Habit to bounce back in a big way. Hell Hath No Fury and Ab-Daledigaeth to round out the tri. And if you're feeling adventurous, Clever Critter (or Rose, but I'm leaning towards CC) to finish out the super.

Did you know?

While waiting for results yesterday, I was messing around with some of my sheets. Making a new one actually. Before the big computer crash of '07, I used to have top-20 times lists for every distance/surface that I would keep updated each week. Well, those are long gone. There is a silver lining though, as I decided to put a sheet together to keep track of EVERY time ever run at each distance/surface.

The first lists I did were for 7 furlongs. Why 7 furlongs? Truthfully? I wanted to start with one where I would see some horses that are very near and dear to me doing well. (Hey, it's been a rough last few weeks on the track for the home stable!) After completing the lists, I figured I could pull some interesting "Did you know's?" out of it. So, here we go!

• 7 furlongs on the dirt has been tried 1,708 times over PF's history. While on turf, it's only been tried 1,193 times.
• Everyone is probably aware of the World Record's at this distance (Mr. Purler - 1:20.38 for the dirt and Miss Bust - 1:20.98 for the turf). But, how about the opposite end of the spectrum? Back in 2004, a 2YO colt by the name of Hawkwind finished the Hollywood Preview Stakes in 1:38.98, 90 lengths behind the winner (Lava Drop, my star!) for a PSR of -144 (Ouch!). On the turf side a year later, 3YO colt Sneaky Runner ran the Stan Fox Stakes in 1:38.18 (-115 PSR), 86 lengths behind the winner (Power To Port).
• Many horses have turned in top-100 times on multiple occasions. When you appear at least three times though, the company starts to get a bit more exclusive. The following are all in the top-100 for dirt three times: Ab-Daledigaeth, Bold N' Free, Bull's Legacy, Handsome Man, Hell Hath No Fury, Lava Drop (Yay!), Mr Purler, Safely Sunday, and Upbeat. There are three horses that find themselves in the top-100 four times: Blitzkrieg (Yay again!), Mars, and Nova. But, the king...errr...queen of them all is Victory Dance, as she's there five times. Those 13 horses account for an impressive 44% of the top-100 times!
• On the turf side of things, there's more diversity. Two horses appear four times each, and four horses are on the list three times. The co-queens are: Attack At Dawn and Blushing Allanna. Those with three appearances: Dansilver, Miss Bust, Moet, and Sovereign Sword.
• What of the horses that appear in both top-100's though? There are 12 of them. The list is headed by Victory Dance with 6 top-100's (5 dirt and 1 turf). Two horses appear 5 times: Bold N' Free (3 dirt and 2 turf) and Upbeat (3 dirt and 2 turf). Four top-100's from: Big Easy (2 dirt and 2 turf), Dansilver (1 dirt and 3 turf), and Mr Purler (3 dirt and 1 turf). Just two horses appear three times: Fly So High (2 dirt and 1 turf) and Jethro (2 dirt and 1 turf). And we round it out with the four horses that have done it once on each surface: Doomsday, Lil Belle, Our Differences, and Yes Zippy Can.
• The highest PSR's attained come from the same horse...Dansilver. On dirt, in the 2005 Vosburgh Stakes, he posted a 121.44 (14th best). On turf, in the 2004 Futurity Stakes, it was a 126.8 (32nd best).
• Where's the most likely track to see a top-100 time turned in? On the dirt side, Santa Anita just edges out Aqueduct 24-23. Turf, it's not even a contest. Caulfield has produced 39 of the top-100, easily outdistancing Eagle Farm which has 14.
• The most likely race? For dirt, the Santa Monica Handicap and Pat O' Brien Handicap are tied with 10 each. The Vic Heath Cup is the place to be on turf with 16 of the top-100.
• How about the best times for each surface rating? On the dirt side, "fast" is obviously occupied by the current WR - Mr Purler in 1:20.38. The best on "good" is View Of Paradise at 1:22.05 (202nd best overall). The best for "heavy" is 1:22.98 by Nothing Changes (545th best). The best for "muddy" is 1:22.34 by Seeing Things (287th best). The best for "sloppy" is 1:24.03 by Lava Drop (939th best). The best for "slow" is 1:23.03 by Landmine (554th best).
• For turf, the record by Miss Bust of 1:20.98, was set on "firm". The best for "firm to good" is 1:21.35 by Attack At Dawn (5th best overall). The best for "good" is 1:21.90 by On The Prowl (28th best). The best on "hard" is 1:21.55 by Martika (8th best). The best for "soft" is 1:22.29 by Sovereign Sword (66th best). The best for "yielding" is 1:22.82 by Smart Money (161st best).
• The oldest horse to make the top-100? Victory Dance as a 6YO (21st best).
• The highest weight carried to a top-100 time? On dirt, 128 lbs. by Big Easy (27th best), Bold N' Free (34th best), Dansilver (14th best), and Our Differences (71st best). On turf, 129 lbs. by Big Easy (52nd best), Court's Guru (97th best), and Thief of Hearts (79th best).
• The lowest weight carried to a top-100 time? On dirt, 102 lbs. by Tunnel Vision (2nd best). On turf, 107 lbs. by Knight Hawk (91st best).
• The highest post position to turn in a top-100 time? Bull's Legacy broke from the 18 hole on dirt (9th best). On turf, it was Tora Tora Tora from the 13th slot (51st best).
• On dirt, none of the top-100 times are from an ungraded race. But on turf, there are 12 of them...including four from Shenandoah Downs.
• The breakdown per grade level on dirt is: G1 - 29, G2 - 54, and G3 - 17. On turf: G1 - 50, G2 - 23, G3 - 15, and ungraded - 12.
• The top-100 breakdown per year for dirt is: 2003 - 1, 2004 - 7, 2005 - 8, 2006 - 9, 2007 - 16, 2008 - 28, and 2009 - 31. For turf: 2004 - 7, 2005 - 13, 2006 - 10, 2007 - 16, 2008 - 34, and 2009 - 20.
• To wrap things up, we'll see where the best times this week at 7 furlongs fall in the grand scheme of things. On dirt, 3YO colt Mirror Image ran a 1:22.11, which checks in at a tie for the 216th spot. On turf, 3YO colt Kid Flash ran a 1:22.32, which was good for a tie for 71st place.

The Derby

The "other" big 12 furlong race for 3YO's on this week's schedule. The only differences being this one is on turf, is worth quite a bit more in the scheme of the Power Rankings, and is quite a bit more interesting to be frank. This one at least has quite a few horses that actually seem to cherish this amount of ground. I expect this one to be run quite a bit faster than the Belmont. Unless the ground is just crazy "off", and then it still might! Ok, let's get to it...

• Arctic Memories: If you remember, this one scratched out of the American 3YO Derby. He then went back to his best surface to take the G1 Poule D'Essai Des Poulaines last time out...pretty easily over some decent horses. That was only a mile race, but 12 panels should be right within the upper limits of what he's capable of. Should be in the mix.
• Blast of Storm: Another one coming off a nice effort in a G1 mile turf race (2nd in the 2000 Guineas). That's where the similarities end though. A mile is probably about the extreme outside most distance for this one...and that might be pushing it a bit. He's a nice horse, but not in this spot. Will probably be looking to hitch a ride towards the end.
• Coins: Distance isn't a problem for this one. Won last time out in a 2 mile race on dirt, and did it in a decent enough time. Might be just starting to approach his peak. Looks to be a scratch because of field size. It's probably for the best though, as Jenny's My Gal has already smacked him around this year like a red-headed stepchild...twice.
• Double Dome: Has already shown what kind of talent he has by beating Perfect Bell to take The Cox Plate two starts back. He then was wheeled back way too quickly on dirt (not his optimum surface), and he faded badly. He's been resting since then, so he should be in fine form. Like Arctic Memories, 12 furlongs should be right around his limit at this point, but definitely within his capabilities. Look for him to grab a piece of it.
• Estrecho: Coming into this one with two straight wins, with the last one being a G1 over this distance. Unfortunately, both were very weak fields. He's stepping into a whole different world in this one, and it's going to show.
• Frome: It already worked once for Port Pirie this year. Send an unheralded maiden out in a big race to shock the world. Not going to happen a second time though. The next time this one has a PSR of over 60, will be the first time...in his career. He might still be immature and improving, but it would take an unprecedented leap in improvement for this one to be even close. Will need a pair of very high-powered binoculars to see the leaders by the time he finishes.
• Gorad Gomel: Finished second to Estrecho in his last two. Still improving, but not sure 12 furlongs is for him...yet. Plus, this definitely isn't his level right now. Was looking for a short field, but not going to get it. Likely scratch, which is for the best.
• Jenny's My Gal: Comes into this one on a three win streak. Only loss of the season was in first race by a head to older horses. Hasn't been tested at all by 3YO's to this point, pretty much toying with them so far. Interesting horse in that the amount of ground he's been winning over isn't really suggested by his "Fair" stamina. Doesn't have blazing speed either. But, is the type that will run at their speed all day long. If the others in this one can't push him beyond "level 3" effort, they'll get smoked like all the previous 3YO's. But if they can push him like the older horses did...well, we'll see.
• Star Chaser: Nicely improving horse. PSR's have been increasing each time out this year, culminating in a 110 last out (his first win). I'm not sure that 12 furlongs is within his scope quite yet, but he's working towards it. If this one were about 10.5 to 11, he'd be in better shape, I think. As it is, he's already tried Jenny's My Gal at a similar distance, and was well beaten. Still, he's quite talented and could get a piece of it.
• Tago Lad: Ran over this distance in his last two starts. Finished in 2:28.19 and 2:28.18...how's that for consistency?! Does that mean, he's looking at 2:28.17 for this one? Maybe so, but it won't be enough. 2:28 won't get it done in this one. If everything breaks right for him, I could see him grabbing a 4th place check though.
• The whole key to this race is whether Jenny's My Gal can be pushed. If so, maybe we get an upset. Maybe. I think there are a few in this one that are capable of pushing him a bit. Until a 3YO shows that they can make him sweat though, I'm not picking against him. Jenny's My Gal to win with an impressive time. Double Dome to pick up a nice second, and Arctic Memories third.

Magic Millions Review - by Foxies Lodge

15 Horses will line up for this amazing race over 6F on turf with a cool $1million purse on offer on the Gold Coast in Australia 7 fillies & 8 colts - who will win? who will be the unlucky horse of the race ? That we will find out.

Well, let’s see how they match up against each other ..... And remember, this review in no way reflects anyone’s opinion but mine and should be read as merely my interpretation of the racecard (So back off!)

Fashion Tower - With a record of 2-1-1-0 & earnings of $72,500 ... Will be in the top 4 for the first 4F but 6F mite be a little to far against horses of this quality

Flawless Tower - Record of 2-1-0-0 & earnings of $36,000 ... Distance should suit , another who will be in the top 4 after 4F a chance if she can hold out the horses coming from behind

Fulano - Another with a record of 2-1-0-0 & earnings of $36,000 ... Will be steaming home if the track isnt soft

Hieroglyph - Record of 3-0-0-1 & earnings of $7,500 ... To far for her another who will probably lead but will most likely fade at 4F

Maximum Security - Record of 3-0-0-0 n earkings of $0 ... Out of his league against these horses

Mystical Island - Record of 4-1-1-1 earnings of $79,800 ... Outside chance if he draws an inside barrier

Navegador - Record of 1-0-0-0 & earnings of $0 ... Another out of his class

Northern K D - Record of 1-1-0-0 & earnings of $600,000 ... Dubai Juvi winner should be there at the finish

People''s Champ - Record of 4-0-2-1 & earnings of $40,000 ... Not sure about the surface outside chance

Purple Passion - Record of 3-2-1-0 & earnings of $85,000 ... The horse to beat , very classy filly

Quarterview - Record of 3-3-0-0 & earnings of $98,400 ... Will sit behind the leaders will probably look the winner at some stage , has the ability

Queen Street - Record of 5-2-2-1 & earnings of $295,000 ... Very classy filly took on older competition last start back to own age, expect a bold showing

Quick Step - Record of 1-1-0-0 & earnings of $16,500 ... Could be the smokey of the race ... needs luck

Run Missy Run - Record of 3-2-0-1 & earnings of $190,000 ... Will be there from the start , expecting for him to be there at the end

Sverige - Record of 3-2-0-1 & earnings of $76,000 ... Probably be the leader, distance may be a problem