July Cup

This week's featured race is the $400,000 G1 July Cup. It will be the 5th running of the Newmarket race for horses 3 and up. The previous winners of the race:

• 2005: Dansilver - 1:09.19 (111 PSR)
• 2006: Kendane - 1:09.66 (105)
• 2007: Levicorpus - 1:09.53 (106)
• 2008: Attack At Dawn - 1:08.89 (115)

A few more blurbs before we get to this year's race:

• Kendane won this race as a 6YO.
• The race has been run on "Firm" turf every year but 2006, when it was run on "Firm to Good".
• All of the previous races have been pretty competitive with winning margins in lengths of 1.95 (Fine Memories), 1.75 (Court's Guru), 2.35 (With Imagine), and 3.85 (Miss Bust).
• The field sizes for the previous runnings: 9, 6, 7, and 10.
• The winning post positions: 9, 3, 5, and 4.
• This race has produced two of the top-100 for the distance/surface. Attack At Dawn's winning time checks in as the 21st best. Dansilver's time was good for 58th.

Now, for this year's lineup...

• Blazing Risk: 8 wins from 27 career starts. A 108 PSR average on the year, and you only have the 4th best average in the race! This race is loaded...at the top end at least. Two wins in eight starts for this one on the year. Coming off a very impressive performance last out in The Australia Stakes. He covered the 6 furlongs on a "Good" track in 1:08.87 (118 PSR), which was the 17th best all-time. He also has one other top-100 time, 70th in last year's Foster's Cup (1:09.28). His only other start at this distance/surface this year was in his season debut. He finished 5th in 1:10.03 (96 PSR). This will be his first start at the track. He should be right near the lead from the start, and has an excellent shot.
• Miss Bust: It's only taken her 20 starts to get her 9 wins. Having an excellent year so far. Three wins in six tries. She also has 2 second place finishes where she had PSR's of 123 and 120! World Record holder at 5.5 (set in her season debut this yar) and 7 furlongs. Has only tried this distance once this year (her last race), winning the Gold Jubilee Stakes in 1:08.67 (119 PSR), the 7th best time ever. She's run four times in her career at this surface/distance garnering three wins (3rd, 7th, and 37th best times) and one second in last year's July Cup (109th best). This will be her third career start at the track. Besides last year's second in this race, she also had an 8th place finish in a mile race on a "Yielding" track. Her PSR average here is 91. Just going by her record at this distance/surface, she has to be the one to beat here.
• Returnofthedancer: Just fast enough to lose? Only 3 wins from 23 starts in his career, but 11 seconds! This year it's more of the same...consistently fast, and only one win to show for it. Won his debut, going 6 turf furlongs in 1:08.90 (22nd best, 113 PSR). Then ran a 119 PSR over 7 furlongs (1:21.69, 16th best), and finished 3rd. Next out, he switched to 6 on the dirt for the Dubai Golden Shaheen. He ran 1:08.57 (48th best, 102 PSR) and finished 11th! That's just a crazy fast race. His last time out was back to 6 on the turf. He ran a career best time of 1:08.70 (8th best, 118 PSR), but had the misfortune of being in the same race as Miss Bust (and screwing around some in the stretch)...losing by a neck. This will be his debut on this track. Can he turn the tables on Miss Bust? Maybe. Depends on whether he can keep his mind on the task at hand.
• Scenic Sky: Two career starts, both this year. Two times coming in dead last. Beaten by 24 and 28 lengths. Has never tried a sprint before. You'd have to believe there are better places for this one to be. Don't see any way that he doesn't get pummeled.
• Silver Inside: 7YO has had a busy little (and decent) career...6 wins from 61 starts. Half his wins have come this year in 9 starts. This race is just well above his level though. The best he's ever run at this surface/distance is 1:09.94 (223rd best), and that came two years ago. His best this year is 1:10.39 (428th), and that's from four tries. He tried this race last year, and finished 9th of 10...18 lengths back. He ran 14 days ago at Shenandoah Downs, finishing 4th. Luckily, he will scratch as his connections were looking for a guaranteed check. This old warrior deserves better.
• Unknown Direction: Unknown is a fitting name for this horse. He's had a decent career (4 for 28), and probably not too many people realize it. Two of his wins have come this year from 9 starts. That being said, I seriously doubt this is the place for him. First off, he ran 15 days ago...and lost to a 2YO. Secondly, his best ever time for this distance/surface came this year...1:09.65 (144th best, 101 PSR). He's run on this track once before, coming in third in last year's 2000 Guineas (91 PSR). I think this horse has some talent, but he'll need to run his eyeballs out to even get a small piece of this one.
• Victory Dance: She just keeps going and going. 26 wins from 68 starts...just an amazing career. This year, she's only 1 for 5. But, she's still running fast times. She's run twice on dirt at this distance and posted the 2nd and 10th best times ever. She tried 7 furlongs on the turf (141st best) and on the dirt (21st best). Her last time out was at this distance/surface. She finished third (behind Miss Bust and Returnofthedancer) in 1:09.19 (57th best, 111 PSR). In her long and illustrious career, she's started three times previously on this track (2 of them coming as a 2YO), getting two wins (both at this distance) and a second. Her PSR average here is 99. While she might be nearing the tail end of her career, it's obvious that she still is fast enough to win this. I don't think she will win this one, but it would be a huge upset if she doesn't run well and grab a nice check.
• This should be a really good one, and if the top-four are on their games (and the track cooperates), Alytrain's World Record (1:08.19) could be in play. Who to pick for the win though? Miss Bust or Returnofthedancer? Returnofthedancer or Miss Bust? Hmmmmmm. Let's go out on a limb and say the Returnofthedancer stays focused in the stretch this time, and edges out Miss Bust. Victory Dance and Blazing Risk for the next two spots, with Victory Dance just catching Blazing Risk before the wire.