The Derby

The "other" big 12 furlong race for 3YO's on this week's schedule. The only differences being this one is on turf, is worth quite a bit more in the scheme of the Power Rankings, and is quite a bit more interesting to be frank. This one at least has quite a few horses that actually seem to cherish this amount of ground. I expect this one to be run quite a bit faster than the Belmont. Unless the ground is just crazy "off", and then it still might! Ok, let's get to it...

• Arctic Memories: If you remember, this one scratched out of the American 3YO Derby. He then went back to his best surface to take the G1 Poule D'Essai Des Poulaines last time out...pretty easily over some decent horses. That was only a mile race, but 12 panels should be right within the upper limits of what he's capable of. Should be in the mix.
• Blast of Storm: Another one coming off a nice effort in a G1 mile turf race (2nd in the 2000 Guineas). That's where the similarities end though. A mile is probably about the extreme outside most distance for this one...and that might be pushing it a bit. He's a nice horse, but not in this spot. Will probably be looking to hitch a ride towards the end.
• Coins: Distance isn't a problem for this one. Won last time out in a 2 mile race on dirt, and did it in a decent enough time. Might be just starting to approach his peak. Looks to be a scratch because of field size. It's probably for the best though, as Jenny's My Gal has already smacked him around this year like a red-headed stepchild...twice.
• Double Dome: Has already shown what kind of talent he has by beating Perfect Bell to take The Cox Plate two starts back. He then was wheeled back way too quickly on dirt (not his optimum surface), and he faded badly. He's been resting since then, so he should be in fine form. Like Arctic Memories, 12 furlongs should be right around his limit at this point, but definitely within his capabilities. Look for him to grab a piece of it.
• Estrecho: Coming into this one with two straight wins, with the last one being a G1 over this distance. Unfortunately, both were very weak fields. He's stepping into a whole different world in this one, and it's going to show.
• Frome: It already worked once for Port Pirie this year. Send an unheralded maiden out in a big race to shock the world. Not going to happen a second time though. The next time this one has a PSR of over 60, will be the first time...in his career. He might still be immature and improving, but it would take an unprecedented leap in improvement for this one to be even close. Will need a pair of very high-powered binoculars to see the leaders by the time he finishes.
• Gorad Gomel: Finished second to Estrecho in his last two. Still improving, but not sure 12 furlongs is for him...yet. Plus, this definitely isn't his level right now. Was looking for a short field, but not going to get it. Likely scratch, which is for the best.
• Jenny's My Gal: Comes into this one on a three win streak. Only loss of the season was in first race by a head to older horses. Hasn't been tested at all by 3YO's to this point, pretty much toying with them so far. Interesting horse in that the amount of ground he's been winning over isn't really suggested by his "Fair" stamina. Doesn't have blazing speed either. But, is the type that will run at their speed all day long. If the others in this one can't push him beyond "level 3" effort, they'll get smoked like all the previous 3YO's. But if they can push him like the older horses did...well, we'll see.
• Star Chaser: Nicely improving horse. PSR's have been increasing each time out this year, culminating in a 110 last out (his first win). I'm not sure that 12 furlongs is within his scope quite yet, but he's working towards it. If this one were about 10.5 to 11, he'd be in better shape, I think. As it is, he's already tried Jenny's My Gal at a similar distance, and was well beaten. Still, he's quite talented and could get a piece of it.
• Tago Lad: Ran over this distance in his last two starts. Finished in 2:28.19 and 2:28.18...how's that for consistency?! Does that mean, he's looking at 2:28.17 for this one? Maybe so, but it won't be enough. 2:28 won't get it done in this one. If everything breaks right for him, I could see him grabbing a 4th place check though.
• The whole key to this race is whether Jenny's My Gal can be pushed. If so, maybe we get an upset. Maybe. I think there are a few in this one that are capable of pushing him a bit. Until a 3YO shows that they can make him sweat though, I'm not picking against him. Jenny's My Gal to win with an impressive time. Double Dome to pick up a nice second, and Arctic Memories third.