A Photo Finish at Kentucky Derby

The first weekend in May. 10 furlongs. 3 year olds. The first jewel in the Triple Crown. A place in history. The Kentucky Derby is the arguably the most prestigious race of the year.



This year brought out 19 colts and a lone filly from 17 stables. Goforwand Stables, Snowbank Farm, and Zippy Chippy Stables sent two each.



These 20 horses were looking to join War Machine as PF second Triple Crown winner. War Machine won the American Triple Crown in 2005, winning the Derby with a time of 2:00.0; which was also the year that Madam De Francais of FDL Lodge won the American Fillies' Triple Crown (who placed 3rd in the Belmont after Star Studded - Bonai).



In 2003 Spanish Midnight from Bonai Farms became the first to win the Kentucky Derby with a time of 2:00.2. Revenge of KRF Stables would take the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, having sat out the Derby from an early spring injury. Spanish Midnight did not start in the Preakness coming back sore, but ran 2nd in the Belmont.



In 2004, Thunder Artic of Rainbow won the Kentucky Derby (1:59.1) and the Belmont Stakes. Dansilver trained by Kings Park took the Preakness by 2 lengths and placed 2nd in the Derby behind Thunder Artic; he did not start in the Belmont.



In 2006 the smallest field since 2003 started with Down the Drain trained by Old Brewery Stables won by 1/2 length over Sobriety of Snowbank Farms with at time of 2:00.0. He placed 3rd and last in the Preakness (Sobrety winning) and came back to win the Belmont.




Pegasus Song trained by Goforwand Stables became the first filly to claim the Derby in 2007 with a time of 1:58.4. She went on to placed 2nd in both the Preakness and Belmont to A Bus of Port Pirie and Braveheart trained by FDL Lodge, respectively.




In the following year in 2008, it was the year of the fillies. Perfect Bell won the Kentucky Derby with a time of 1:59.1. Finishing 2nd and 3rd were fillies Isca's Revenge and Case Closed from Smokey's Stable and Bally Doyle. In the Preakness Perfect Bell and Case Closed ran 1st and 2nd. Perfect Bell was looking to become the first filly to win the Triple Crown, but Led Astray of Hopeful Farm won the Belmont by 2 lengths. In the Belmont the top 5 finishers were fillies (Isca's Revenge, Perfect Bell, Penumbra Moon - Long Island Hayburners - and Notice Me - FDL Lodge). The top placed colt was Handsome Gesture of Snowbank Farm who finished some 12 lengths back.



Last year there was no fillies entered in the Derby, and Taco Bell of Pointgiven Stables (Perfect Bell's 1/2 brother by Bellbuster) won the Derby with a time of 2:00.2. Taco Bell was unplaced in the Preakness, the winner going to Venezia of Port Pirie Stables who is the son of Bold N' Free who placed in the Derby and Preakness. However, Venezia placed 2nd in the Belmont to Thunder Heart trained by Lakeside Acres. It was the first time in PF history that 3 different horses won each leg of the race.



*Note times were taken from past results which may vary from the PP

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This weekend brought out a full field of 20 horses. Priceless Revenge from Chiknsmack Stables went off at the 9:2 favorite. New Tower from Snowbank Farm was the 5:1 second choice by the bettors. And at 8:1 were New Tower from Gorforwand Stables and Quick Step of Moose Hollow Farm. Iginla who is trained at Iron Racing went off at 9:1. All others were priced from 10:1 to 77:1.



It was a clear May day in Kentucky as the 19 colts and filly made their way to the gate. The track was deemed fast and ready for the races. Earlier in the Kentucky Oaks, Laurie of Snowbank Farm had brought home the winner Resounding and Gorforwand Stables had 1/2 sister to New Tower, Tear Tower finished 3rd.

With a full field of nearly all rambunctious colts the starter had his hands full in this first start of the Triple Crown. However under his expert command they were all settled and ready in the gate.




Quick Step and Ladies Mon of Wolf Ridge Stables broke the fastest. Whereas Born to Run of Woodbury, Ride the Sun of Godolphin17, and Faldo of Olmor Dorato quickly settled back some 6 to 8 lengths back; although Born to Run quickly made up lost ground.



As the field entered the turn, New Tower in the 1st post position held a length lead over Ladies Mon. Priceless Revenge, Regal Son, Petenwell (Smokey's Stable), and Serendipity (Rainbow) followed in a short lead over the rest of the field. Serendipity began to move up stealing third from Regal Son and began moving up on Ladies Mon.



At the start of the backstretch New Tower was running well a length in front of Serendipity who took 2nd from Ladies Mon, and began inching up on the leader. Regal Son settled in comfortably 3 lengths back, heading off the field with Petenwell, Priceless Revenge, Quick Step, and The Big O (Under the Weeping Moon) ahead of the main pack.



At the end of the backstretch New Tower and Serendipity began to extend their lead over the field by 4 lengths. Ladies Mon couldn't keep up with the pace and began to fall back as Quick Step, Regal Son, Petenwell, Priceless Revenge, and The Big O began to make their move. Iginla also began moving up the field.



As they came out of the turn New Tower was still the leader with Serendipity on his heels. The trio led by Quick Step, Priceless Revenge, and Regal Son began moving up fast on the leaders. Also Petenwell and Iginla started to show some speed as they tried to make up lost ground.



In the homestretch, Serendipity could not keep up with New Tower and the onslaught on the upcoming field and started falling back. Priceless Revenge started in on the leader and fought to get his nose ahead of New Tower. Squeezing between the racing colts was Regal Son who had found racing room and was making his move in 3rd. Iginla on the outside was eating up ground trying to catch the leaders before he ran out of track. Petenwell was also moving well, sliding past Quick Step and Serendipity.



Priceless Revenge couldn't stay with New Tower and Regal Son as they flew to the finish nose to nose; while Iginla was gaining ground with each stride, but was quickly running out of race.





In the last few strides of the race, Iginla swept past Priceless Revenge to claim third as New Tower and Regal Son swept under the wire together - A Photo Finish! The time was an excellent 1:58.96. The photo showed that New Tower had beat the Snowbank Farm colt by less than a nose.



However, out of 20 racers only 7 walked away with a clean bill of health. New Tower came back with the worst injury who will be out of training for a minimum of 30 days which will put him out of Triple Crown contention. Regal Son came back sore and the vet recommended 2 days of rest before strenuous works.



The connections at Goforwand Stables said in a statement released soon after the results, "[It's] unfortunate that New Tower will be unable to compete for TC but can't tell you how happy I am for the KD win."



However, they were still looking on to the Preakness and claimed that they "have a alternate for [The Preakness]."





The late running Ignila will see The Preakness and owner as plans to send him to the Belmont. He said in a statment that, "We've been very patient with IGGY. So i think he's fresh and will compete in the next legs of the TC." He was hopeful in "Iggy's" preformance and said, "maybe we can pick up a win in Baltimore or New York."

Although we will have no American Triple Crown winner, perhaps Laurie will have Resounding become the 3rd filly to with the female's crown. And we will certainly be following this season's strong bunch of three year olds to the Preakness and Belmont.

The Order of Finish for the 2010 Kentucky Derby

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Matt's Notable Mention: Watch out for Ignila in the Belmont. He was going to catch the two front runners if given another 1/2 furlong or so. The 2 furlongs in the Belmont will aid this late running colt. Regal Son was also moving well at the end, and perhaps would've given Laurie a double win in another stride. However, perhaps New Tower's injury played in to it.

An excellent race with the photo finish and Iginla final drive. If you haven't watched it, one should even if you know the outcome of the race.

What If.......................................

“What if” – now there’s a statement to make most people shudder when they hear it. What if the moon were made of cheese, what if Laurie didn’t have to work rather than rely on donations to run the game, what if wishes were horses, what if ARs were true……. The list is endless!

So lets take a fairly topical “What If” and say “What if horses had to prove their eligibility to run the Kentucky Derby”. OK – now you have got yourself back off the floor and recovered lets look at this rationally.

Every year the Derby field is oversubscribed and there is always the odd horse that quite honestly don’t deserve to be in the starting gate entered and some horses which have the credentials to run well are balloted out. Recently on the forum there has been a very well debated topic about possibly introducing eligibility criteria allowing those who have shown form, earned money and/or placing in select races. This idea seems to be gaining momentum and several long standing owners have expressed a wish to see such a system introduced sooner rather than later – even if they don’t have a horse that would meet this standard.

I believe a more radical approach is required and suggest that only horses who have finished in the top 3 of races deemed to be “Derby Trials” are allowed entry into the Kentucky Derby itself. The races, ranging from 8.5f – 10f on dirt would be:

Fountain of Youth

Revenge Stakes

Florida Derby

Louisiana Derby

UAE Derby

Flamingo Stakes

Santa Anita Derby

Arkansas Derby

Toyota Blue Grass

Wood Memorial

OK so now you have finished screaming at the screen and digested what is required, lets look at this years field and see who would make it. The pre-race card looks like this:

Horse Stable Age/Sex Scratch Instructions

Bayonet Snowbank Farm 3 Move to 5076 if removed from full field

Born to Run Woodbury Stables 3 Scratch if No/No!

Camena's Thunder FDL Lodge 3 None

Dallas Cowboys Zippy Chippy Stables 3 None

Faldo Olmo Dorato 3 None

Ghostseeker Spartan Racing Stables 3 None

Iginla Iron Racing 3 None

Islegetrevenge Spartan Racing Stables 3 If full Ghostseeker runs

Ladies Mon Wolf Ridge Stables 3 None

Lovely To See You Long Island Hayburners 3 None

New Tower Goforwand Stables 3 None

Petenwell Smokey's Stable 3 None

Priceless Revenge Chiknsmack Stables 3 Scratch if Mud/No-

Razer Boomslang Pointgiven Stables 3 None

Regal Son Snowbank Farm 3 None

Ride The Sun Godolphin17 3F Scratch if No-

Serendipity Rainbow 3 None

Smarty Gone Wild Zippy Chippy Stables 3 None

Tower Coup Goforwand Stables 3 None

If we apply the Derby Trial requirement to these runners we would be left with:

Horse

Bayonet

Born to Run

Faldo

Iginla

Ladies Mon

Lovely To See You

New Tower

Petenwell

Priceless Revenge

Razer Boomslang

Regal Son

Ride The Sun

Tower Coup

This means from the original 19 entered, we are left with a very select field of 13, but hold on – there are several other horses who would be eligible who haven’t been entered who won or were placed in the “Trials” and these are:

Cajun Flash

Big Slick

Queen Street

Nystoi

Revenue

The Big O

Blockbuster

Prodigal Sun

Made You Look

Party Shoes

Arctic Slicker

Sweet Tombi

So a further 12 COULD have been entered making a pre-card entry of 25 and as the field size is restricted to 20 that means that there would be 5 horses to be scratched, but if you look again at the original field 4 of these horses could be scratched depending on the track. However if none were due to be scratched and come post time The Steward was left with a field of 25, then the usual PF rule for full fields would come into play, which for those of you who can’t remember is “All entrants will be ordered by lifetime earnings. Any stables who enter more than one horse will have one horse removed beginning with the lowest earnings multiple horse starting from the lowest earning end of the list. If there are no multiple entries then the top 20 earnings horses will be taken, and all others dropped from the field.”

There must be several other ways of sorting out eligibility for the race –including nominations at different stages (ie birth, as a yearling, 2yr old and then as a 3yr old gradually increasing in cost), season earnings alone, PSR average etc – there is a long list!

I am sure that there are players who are totally against the introduction of such a rule and would see it as an infringement of their PF right to enter their horses how and when they like but on the other hand there are many players who would like to see some kind of “entry system” in place which would help bring the game onto the next level and also give the winner of the Kentucky Derby the proper respect that should be due to such a winner, rather than it become a point of ridicule by saying “OK he won the Kentucky Derby but what did he beat?”.

So however you approach your entries for the Kentucky Derby, be it because they have proven themselves over the distance, because they are bred to like it or simply because you want to have a runner in it – wouldn’t it be nice to have the winner and be able to say “He beat the best” rather than “He won but I wish X had been in it”.

If you don’t agree with the writer, then no hard feelings but speak out – don’t be the one to sit in a darkened room mumbling insanely to yourself saying “no one listens” – the forum is your chance to express your views so use it! You never know it could be your horse winning the Derby next season!

Why Run For the Roses?

It’s that time of the season again, where reputations are made or lost. That’s right, we are talking Kentucky Derby or “Run for the Roses” held at Churchill Downs every year. What is it about this 10f dirt race that makes every players heart beat just that bit faster? Is it the track, the distance, the money or the fact that each horse only gets ONE chance to be the winner?

Most owners when questioned are unanimous about their reasons for trying to win this race – PRESTIGE. Its not about the money its about the chance to say “I own the winner of the Kentucky Derby”. None of them would turn down the chance to grab the prize money but I know that the more established stables prefer winning races that matter to them on a personal level than winning all the money (although that always helps!). That’s why so many of them keep coming back year after year to see if this is the year that it happens.

In all honesty, planning for this race usually starts 4 years in advance, at the start of the breeding season. The decisions to send X Mare to Y Stallion are taken very seriously and whilst some breeders will sit down and ponder pedigrees for hours, others will base the decision on track performance, ie if I send a 10f mare to a 12f stallion will that produce a horse who has the lungs for the gruelling last furlong, remember Barabaro’s demolition job, whilst keeping the speed necessary to fly past the field, a la Giacamo or will the foal end up being a failed miler or worse, a distance horse with no speed? Or vice versa. As soon as the foals are born and the ARs issued, all breeders scan them to see what attributes each foal has. Most will be disappointed, some pleased and very few overjoyed. Sometimes a horse with a pretty average pedigree and AR can come and win so it’s a real lottery.

Then comes the start of the acid tests – running these “future champs” as 2yr olds. Or do you? There is starting to come to my notice that some players would rather not risk their best 3yr olds either too early in their juvenile careers or even to over race them, limiting the horse to less than 5 runs. Others will stick to the old ways, run them hard and often and if they are good enough they will win, if not then at least they tried.

The first test for these 2yr olds is in the Dubai Juvenile over 6f and only two winners of this race have gone on to enter the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Machete who was a debutant in the Dubai Juvenile but demolished the field but only finished 3rd in the next seasons Derby. The first ……. War Machine who, as we all know, is to date the only winner of the Photo Finish Colts Triple Crown as a 3yr old. Without sounding controversial, its interesting to see that as 4yr olds, both ended up contesting sprint or mile races. War Machine was a winning machine as a 3yr old with only the odd blip on his radar, whilst Machete turned out to be a 2yr old of superstar class, but didn’t perform to such standards as a 3yr old.

The second test for 2yr olds is at the end of the season at the Breeders Cup in the 8.5f Juvenile, also held at Churchill Downs. This is a much more reliable source as 5 winners have gone on to place or better in the Kentucky Derby. They are: 2002 winner Wekiva Bay - 3rd in the 03 Derby, 2004 winner Sobriety - 2nd in the Derby, 2005 winner War Machine not only won the 06 Derby but went on to win that years Triple Crown, 2006 winner A Bus was 4th in the 07 Derby, and 08 winner Machete was 3rd in the 09 Derby.

Most players are sensible and enter horses who have a realistic chance of being placed but there is always at least one horse in the field who people look at to say “why is this guy running?”. There are usually two reasons – 1) because the owner has the money to enter anything they like and 2) because some players just like to say that they have a runner. Neither are very good for the game and there is some call now for a “pre entry” system for these prestigious races to be introduced. (Article on that to follow soon!). So when looking at your horses for the race, have a second look and ask yourself – does he have a realistic chance of finishing in the top 4? Does his PSR average match that of the others? Has he shown form over that distance? Does he like the dirt? If the answer to more than one is NO then don’t enter!

Either way, this years Derby looks to be a full field with most horses being there on merit rather than hopes & dreams. This writer’s prediction for the Derby? Its too early to call as there are still several days left for entries to be made and she will leave it up to far more expert judges to call (although she already holds a large win ticket on Regal Son!).