It’s that time of the season again, where reputations are made or lost. That’s right, we are talking Kentucky Derby or “Run for the Roses” held at Churchill Downs every year. What is it about this 10f dirt race that makes every players heart beat just that bit faster? Is it the track, the distance, the money or the fact that each horse only gets ONE chance to be the winner?
Most owners when questioned are unanimous about their reasons for trying to win this race – PRESTIGE. Its not about the money its about the chance to say “I own the winner of the Kentucky Derby”. None of them would turn down the chance to grab the prize money but I know that the more established stables prefer winning races that matter to them on a personal level than winning all the money (although that always helps!). That’s why so many of them keep coming back year after year to see if this is the year that it happens.
In all honesty, planning for this race usually starts 4 years in advance, at the start of the breeding season. The decisions to send X Mare to Y Stallion are taken very seriously and whilst some breeders will sit down and ponder pedigrees for hours, others will base the decision on track performance, ie if I send a 10f mare to a 12f stallion will that produce a horse who has the lungs for the gruelling last furlong, remember Barabaro’s demolition job, whilst keeping the speed necessary to fly past the field, a la Giacamo or will the foal end up being a failed miler or worse, a distance horse with no speed? Or vice versa. As soon as the foals are born and the ARs issued, all breeders scan them to see what attributes each foal has. Most will be disappointed, some pleased and very few overjoyed. Sometimes a horse with a pretty average pedigree and AR can come and win so it’s a real lottery.
Then comes the start of the acid tests – running these “future champs” as 2yr olds. Or do you? There is starting to come to my notice that some players would rather not risk their best 3yr olds either too early in their juvenile careers or even to over race them, limiting the horse to less than 5 runs. Others will stick to the old ways, run them hard and often and if they are good enough they will win, if not then at least they tried.
The first test for these 2yr olds is in the Dubai Juvenile over 6f and only two winners of this race have gone on to enter the Kentucky Derby, the most recent being Machete who was a debutant in the Dubai Juvenile but demolished the field but only finished 3rd in the next seasons Derby. The first ……. War Machine who, as we all know, is to date the only winner of the Photo Finish Colts Triple Crown as a 3yr old. Without sounding controversial, its interesting to see that as 4yr olds, both ended up contesting sprint or mile races. War Machine was a winning machine as a 3yr old with only the odd blip on his radar, whilst Machete turned out to be a 2yr old of superstar class, but didn’t perform to such standards as a 3yr old.
The second test for 2yr olds is at the end of the season at the Breeders Cup in the 8.5f Juvenile, also held at Churchill Downs. This is a much more reliable source as 5 winners have gone on to place or better in the Kentucky Derby. They are: 2002 winner Wekiva Bay - 3rd in the 03 Derby, 2004 winner Sobriety - 2nd in the Derby, 2005 winner War Machine not only won the 06 Derby but went on to win that years Triple Crown, 2006 winner A Bus was 4th in the 07 Derby, and 08 winner Machete was 3rd in the 09 Derby.
Most players are sensible and enter horses who have a realistic chance of being placed but there is always at least one horse in the field who people look at to say “why is this guy running?”. There are usually two reasons – 1) because the owner has the money to enter anything they like and 2) because some players just like to say that they have a runner. Neither are very good for the game and there is some call now for a “pre entry” system for these prestigious races to be introduced. (Article on that to follow soon!). So when looking at your horses for the race, have a second look and ask yourself – does he have a realistic chance of finishing in the top 4? Does his PSR average match that of the others? Has he shown form over that distance? Does he like the dirt? If the answer to more than one is NO then don’t enter!
Either way, this years Derby looks to be a full field with most horses being there on merit rather than hopes & dreams. This writer’s prediction for the Derby? Its too early to call as there are still several days left for entries to be made and she will leave it up to far more expert judges to call (although she already holds a large win ticket on Regal Son!).
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