ARs - What's their Worth?

Ability Reports. Every horse has one. Some may be a bit shorter in length... but every horse gets one. Most owners will be recieving ARs for their new horses - either bought at the auction or for their new foals.

But what should be done with them? Should they go into the bin and discarded? Or should a trainer analyze each and every line; squeezing it for information.

Let me tell the newbies something they may not have heard, and some older players who may need a reminder. Ability Reports and not the hard fast truth. I know, it's amazing right? They are not the ultimate word of a horse's ability... yes, you still must look at the horse's race results.

AR's are a guide, and nothing else. Some times a guide is wrong (yes, I know crazy right)... sometimes they are mistaken... and other's they are as close as you can get. They are like a Trainer's Report. They give an owner an idea of their horse's ability, but you never really know how they'll behave when they eyeball another horse in the homestretch.

For instance, some of the fastest and greatest racehorses have an AR that states "Average Speed" and some plodders in Allowances that have never beat another horse has an AR that says "Lighting Speeed, Certain record setter."

So, my bit of advice to all who may read this: Accept ARs for what they are. They are pieces of paper that give you an idea of what you horse may do once he/she reaches the tracks. No, they are not all powerful, but they are a helpful guide.

2006 PF Special Stallion - Not so special?

For the 2006 breeding season, the stallion Sadler's Wells was introduced as the special stallion available for stud.

Sadler's Wells was a racehorse born in 1981, and sired by Northern Dancer. Although foaled in the United States, he achieved his racing and breeding fame in Europe.

In real life, his greatest success came as a champion sire. Sadler's Wells has been Champion Sire (the sire in Great Britain whose progeny has won the most prize money during a season) no fewer than 14 times with over 200 stakes winners and 69 Group 1 individual winners.

His fabulous success as a real-life sire has not been duplicated here at Photo-Finish. His 2006 foal crop of 16 horses all hit the track as 2yo's last season and had a combined record 0f 88-5-7-16 with earnings of just $998,200. The majority of those earnings ($602,600) came from three horses, Raging Wells from KRF, Wishing Wells also from KRF, and Maximize from Lakeside Acres.

Would I call Sadler's Well a bust as a sire? Not necessarily. Some of those offspring do show promise. It will be interesting to track them in 2009 when they perform as 3yo's.

But you certainly can't be overly excited about just 5 wins in 88 career starts so far.....

ATTN: Readers of The Recap

The staff at the Racing Recap is looking for full-time or part time writers for the coming season. We do not have the time to report on as many races, ideas, comments, etc. as we would like.

The job is easy. Write an article. Submit it to one of the full time staff (unless you are a staff member then simply post). And look for your name in print.

There are no annual fees... no hazing rituals... and we won't kick you off if you don't write a recap every week. AND...

YOU get to choose what you write. There are no overbearing editors handing out beats... and telling you it isn't good enough (anything is good enough for the Recap... pending of course it is appropriate)

JOIN NOW! Just e-mail Matt at shahmat_amal@hotmail.com if you wish to become a full time staff member (it's free!!!). Or if you would like to post an occasional article... you can also become a member of the Recap... or e-mail one of us ("staff members" listed to the right) and we'll be happy to post it!

Happy Reading... and Writing!

Hidden in the Shadows

This year boasted our largest group of two year old hopefuls to make their racing debut – 273 young colts and fillies were primed and ready to make their racing debuts. Or were they?

This year 13 colts and a lone filly were hidden in the shadows, their training fined tuned off the racing ovals. Endless Vista Racing Stud held five colts (Action Hero, Princely Status, Revolution, Royal Chef, and Scenic Sky); all were sold at the recent auction – from $201,000 to $590,000.

A new stable, Europa, acquired the filly Spectacular Breeze and Merlin a young colt when they opened their doors. Due to the unlucky start, Aoife could not start either of the unraced two year olds in 2008 because nominations were closed for the last races of the season.

As a new stable, the staff at Europa simply wish to keep their growing stable afloat in their debut season. Spectacular Breeze is still too young to start in the early season and will start “late in the year.” However, her training partner, Merlin, “will be seen before the Derby” according to Aoife of Europa.

But what about the trainers who had a choice? Why did they choose to keep a few two year olds back from the races?

Chris trainer and owner of Watch This Space had two colts that did not start at two – Artworld and Busted Speech. After viewing their Ability Reports (ARs) Chris decided that they would be better suited as debuting three year olds. It is highly likely that neither of these colts will make an appearance until after the Kentucky Derby.

But, Chris seems to think that it will be worth the wait. Artworld has all the makings of a fine handicap racer, who probably won’t reach his peak until late in 2009 or even 2010. But Chris expects that he will have speed to burn and will be able to navigate the ovals as a handicapper.

To his other late colt, Busted Speech will defiantly make a few showings this year, but not until after the Derby. This colt seems to be a sprinter or miler, who will make a big late charge. Perhaps Chris’ patience will be well spent on these young colts.

Another owner who is keen on waiting until her colt is ready to make his roaring debut is Crista of Rivendell Stables. Retaliate was not mature enough to join his other two year old stable mates, so he stayed back at the farm for additional training.

Crista has the patience that many seem to lack, she knows that Retaliate may not even be ready to go at three, but will see him through. He has the potential to become a good if not great handicap horse, and she has no plans to break him down before he is ready.

Retaliate will make his debut mid-season in a small Allowance, but if he still isn’t ready, he may go back into training for another supplementary year. He has the spark that all trainers are looking for – it just may take awhile for it to ignite. But once it does, the training staff at Rivendell expects that it’ll stay alight for some time.

Rivendell matched Revenge and Steal the Gold, and has seen a bright future for Retaliate that they have a full-brother waiting in the wings. Trigun, along with Retaliate, seems to have inherited their dam’s aptitude for maturing slowly.

Another stable seems keen to start their horses slowly is Hopeful Farm. Chelsey has two ½ siblings who have not seen the tracks - Handsome Affair and Handsome Bane. Chelsey says that it would be an embarrassment if these colts were to race at two. They would have been kicked around and “they may not have known which way to go to the finish line.”

They are both by Handsome Man, the slow maturing stallion who was a sprinting champion at four and five. Chelsey reminded us that Handsome Man did not make his racing debut until the age of three (although, he wasn’t “created” until three…), and was not a well-known name until he showed up at four.

She expects that these colts will be started mid-late in the season, but isn’t really expecting too much until late in the season. She says that they have enough potential that she’ll wait until the end of the season or even the 2010 season to make a decision on them.

The two other colts that did not start at two were from KRF Stables – Rhyme and Three Strikes. Although, Three Strikes was sold at the auction to new stable Round Lake Riders.

So it seems that if a trainer has the patience to wait until their young horses grow up a bit, they are willing to see them through, until they can give a true showing of their worth... even if it means waiting until the horses are three... or even four.

We've seen young horses mature heads and shoulders above their peers, and simply dominate their class at the early stages... Machete and Smart Money are a couple that come to mind.. but what about those who mature slowly? Those that will make their G1 appearances later in life... they don't seem to be as popular... but perhaps these colts and the filly may be the next "IT" horse - if their trainers wait long enough...

Will these trainers’ patience pay off? Who knows...perhaps one of the unraced 2 year olds will be the next Kentucky Derby winner! Let’s look at some stats before I sign off…

14 - # of 2 year old who did not start in 2008
74 - # of horses who failed to run in the money (min. 1 start)
18,000 – Cost in $, the amount a racer in maintenance fees.
52 - # of horses that earned less than $18,000
207 - # of horses that earned more than $18,000

Early 2009 Kentucky Derby hopefuls

There were only twelve 2yo's who had speed scores of 80 or higher on a race of at least 9 furlongs last season.

I'm sure that there will be other contenders that surface early next season, but the horses listed below have shown that they have the stuff to be considered possible candidates for Triple Crown glory in 2009.

1. Machete - colt - KRF
2. DrivingMissDaisy - filly - FDL
3. Linkoping - filly - Port Pirie
4. Unbridled Analysis - filly - Woodbury
5. Double Dome - colt - FDL
6. Taco Bell - colt - Pointgiven
7. Showtime - filly - KRF
8. Karagod - colt - Bowen
9. First Inpression - colt - Eureka
10. Tago Lad - colt - Nonnazequa
11. Hold That Train - colt - Parklands
12. Gregori - colt -Whisperwood

Good luck to these horses and others who may run their way into contention.

Flash the Cash!

Yes folks its that time of year again, the annual battle of the "newbies" vs "vets" in the Flash the Cash Stakes.

This year there are over 500 (yes FIVE HUNDRED!) horses to choose from but, if its anything like previous years, there will be less than a dozen or so horses who achieve over $1million.

So whats the best strategy to wade into this malestrom with? It doesnt depend so much on how much cash you have (although we admit that helps) but rather how long can you hold out without showing your hand. The more "auction toughened" players can hang on until the last 10 mins before wading in and "gazumping" the rest of the stables. This usually happens on the better breed/raced stock although sometimes it comes down to two stables just trying to outbid each other "because"!!

The newbies dont miss out though - there have been several instances in the past where a good horse has been picked up for less than $50,000 which is most new players budget per horse. It also offers them a better rate of return, so a horse costing less than $50,000 but who wins $500,000 in its career is a far better prospect than a horse costing in excess of $3mill who only returns $4million. (Sounds crazy but its true).

Sometimes you can land the horse you want simply by placing the maximum you are going to as the first bid and thats it - job done. But mostly horses are won by those playing late and fast - the last 10mins of the auction will see the most money flying than the rest of the period!

It must also be remembered that the vetrans will simply have more money than newer players, and that if they seriously want a horse they can afford to bid others out of the race. That doesnt mean its a personal vendetta against the under bidder, simply that the winner can afford to go higher.

But dont let that put you off if you have a small budget. Search around, look back at grandparents in pedigrees, and make a sensible bid. All horses have a minimum price of $10,000 and quite often the majority of older (4+) horses can be purchased for that sum or a fraction more.

So who will be the winners of the Flash the Cash Stakes - everyone because there is a horse out there for everyone, no matter what your budget, aspirations, stable size etc. There should be no reason at the end of the day to say "not fair" - if you cant find one horse in 500 then theres no hope!!

Eclipse Awards 2008

Its that time of the year again, where everyone has the chance to vote for their favourite horse or the horse they feel has performed best/consistently over the last season.

In a change from the norm, ie Laurie counting the votes and posting the results, she very kindly allowed Amanda from Bally Doyle who, as both a "vet" of the game and a player with no horses in the voting, to record the "ceremony" and post this on our sister site, PF Results.

Just in case you missed the link or the post in the forum, and simply prefer coming here to read the news, here is the link

http://www.freewebs.com/pfresults/eclipseawards2008.htm

Hope you enjoy listening!

Head Start Newbies?

In the last few weeks, brought on by the deals made for owners' stallions, the subject of giving new players a leg up has been debated once again. Should new players be given two horses, his or her pick from the racers at Endless Vista, or should they be given the allotted $200,000 and made to purchase their horses like some veterans did?

Well, the truth in that all veterans had to purchase their first horses isn't the case for all. Many stables quite literally took over another and were given up to five horses. Myself? When I first began was given the choice of three horses from a pool of five or six. In my recent re-start I was allowed to choose two racers from the EV horses.

So yes, there have been some players who have had to purchase their horses in the end of year Auction. But I believe that some of the new players (those in the last few weeks) are also buying their first horses at this year’s auction – correct me if I’m wrong.

Personally, I’m not sure where I stand on giving horses to new players. It is upsetting to see a upstart stable become a TC winner in their first year by a draw of luck, when others who have been playing for years waiting for their break – as some players have experienced; however, such is horse racing or any equine sport.

It’d be nice if all new players were given a nice G3/G2 pair of racers, or could buy a nice pair of dependable racers. Or were able to buy a horse that consistently placed in the money But is that the reality? If a stable were to start mid-season, would they have the opportunity to buy a horse that would keep them afloat? Only time will surely tell.

As our PF-world constantly expands so will the number of horses in our community. I believe that we will start to see a clearer definition of G1 racers vs. G2 racers and then G3 and so on. But with the expansion of PF becomes a clearer and clearer line of those who are established and those who are not.

Yes, many a few years ago, had to start from scratch. But I believe that it was also easier to get ahead. There were fewer truly established stables with dozens of strong racers and a long-term breeding plan in effect.

Today new players face a plethora of stables that have monies in the millions and tens of millions. They have funds to spend and dozens of horses at their disposable; clearly they have an advantage.

There must be a middle ground to allow new players the chance of becoming an established stable, without undermining the hard work of the veteran players.

A bit help with the breeding side of the game seems to be the easiest way that most veteran players show/give to the “novice” players. Personally, I like the idea – it’s better than handing over a polished two year old.

Odds & Ends - One Man's Opinions

Deadlines
- End of Year Report/Breeding -

This has been a increasing problem in the last few years - at least that I've seen. Many stables haven't met deadlines, and deadlines have been pushed back at the expense of the other prompt stables and of course Laurie. We all know that they are coming, Breeder's Cup week and the Hong Kong meeting are a big clue... but like anyone we tend to get lost in the wake of real life troubles.

I myself nearly missed the End of Year Report Deadline. I haven't been able to play the game in a few weeks and lost track of time and the upcoming Off-Season Activities. Only by a off-chance conversation with another member did I remember to send in that Report.

Okay. So a few stables (and some prominent ones at that) missed the Report Deadline. Perhaps some aren't interested in playing the game anymore, had real life commitments, or simply couldn't access a computer in the last few days... But let's make sure that we get our Breeding Deadline met!

Get those pairings and names in to Laurie so that she can generate foals, e-mail us their ARs... and we can get back to racing!

Speaking of Ability Reports...

Ability Reports
- The On-going Debate -

These things have changed drastically since the last time I played Photo Finish. And honestly I have to say that I think they have taken a turn for the worse.

This is how they used to look:
(well I believe that the first ARs had a slightly different style for the surface preference - stating only what was preferred)

Ability Report for horse Justa Test

Justa Test, purple fillyBy Tester's Test out of JustIn Time by No More Folly

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.

This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.

This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.

This horse prefers hard dirt.

This horse prefers soft dirt.

This horse prefers mud.

This horse is good on hard turf.

This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse shows average fight if challenged at the wire.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.

This horse has average ratability.

This horse has average curve handling abilities.

This horse just keeps on going after it has the lead, it doesn't let up.

This horse handles traffic ok.

This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.

This horse has an average recovery rate between races.

This horse has average weight carrying capacity.

This horse usually comes from far back.

This horse has good acceleration.

This horse has average speed out of the gate.

This horse has average speed.

Handles 5f to 1.25mi, best distance 6f.

Then we made a slight chance for the 2006 Foal Crop (the red was omitted)

Ability Report for horse 0000

Justa Test II (2006), 12.3 hand violet colt

By Twice as Nice out of Justa Test by Tester's Test

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse prefers mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse shows average fight if challenged at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse just keeps on going after it has the lead, it doesn't let up.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse has an average recovery rate between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse usually comes from far back.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse has average speed out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
Handles 5f to 1.25mi, best distance 6f.

We decided that putting the "Best Distance" was hurting too many players who took ARs for the honest truth. But in 2007 we made another change... again to the last line.

Ability Report for horse 0001

Justa Test III(2007), 19.3 hand mauve colt
By Justa Test II out of Oh Yes by Not Another

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse will be near peak potential for the Derby.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse prefers mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.
This horse shows average fight if challenged at the wire.
This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries.
This horse has average ratability.
This horse has average curve handling abilities.
This horse just keeps on going after it has the lead, it doesn't let up.
This horse handles traffic ok.
This horse has consistency problems. Doesn't always meet expectations.
This horse has an average recovery rate between races.
This horse has average weight carrying capacity.
This horse usually comes from far back.
This horse has good acceleration.
This horse has average speed out of the gate.
This horse has average speed.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

So the ARs don't have the furlongs set in stone... okay, still a good AR (in my opinion the best one yet).

But then, for the 2008 foals the ARs are cut drastically...

Ability Report for horse 0002

Justa Test IV (2008), 2.2 hand lilac colt

By Justa Test III out of Are we Done by Thrice Cut

This horse will mature quickly and be at peak performance early, ready for the Derby.
This horse will have an average performance peak, at least two racing seasons.
This horse prefers hard dirt.
This horse prefers soft dirt.
This horse prefers mud.
This horse is good on hard turf.
This horse is ok on soft turf.

This horse is very hardy and unlikely to fall victim to injuries
This horse has average ratability.
This horse appears to be a sprinter.

To me the biggest problem with Ability Reports are not the reports, but how each person interprets them. If the ARs are taken as a training guide, and not words set in stone (how many people can attest to that fact) I believe things would work out better for all. We all know that ARs are not 100% accurate and no one should take them as thus... but cutting them down is not the way to solve the problem.

To me it is like training your horse for a race or even a show. You know how they act in training, you work with them and you can tell if one horse has an aptitude for western or dressage (or sprints vs routes). You have an idea of what their abilities are before they step into the ring (for instance no one would mistake a 4-H prospect for a Nationals show horse)... even if you don't know exactly how that horse will perform on "show/race day" you have an idea at their abilities.

Which is all an AR should be... a glimpse into the training that we can not see with our SIM horses. No one knows who will be the best before they race or compete... But I know the difference between a hobby horse and a show-machine.

What do you think? Leave me a comment if you wish...