Hidden in the Shadows

This year boasted our largest group of two year old hopefuls to make their racing debut – 273 young colts and fillies were primed and ready to make their racing debuts. Or were they?

This year 13 colts and a lone filly were hidden in the shadows, their training fined tuned off the racing ovals. Endless Vista Racing Stud held five colts (Action Hero, Princely Status, Revolution, Royal Chef, and Scenic Sky); all were sold at the recent auction – from $201,000 to $590,000.

A new stable, Europa, acquired the filly Spectacular Breeze and Merlin a young colt when they opened their doors. Due to the unlucky start, Aoife could not start either of the unraced two year olds in 2008 because nominations were closed for the last races of the season.

As a new stable, the staff at Europa simply wish to keep their growing stable afloat in their debut season. Spectacular Breeze is still too young to start in the early season and will start “late in the year.” However, her training partner, Merlin, “will be seen before the Derby” according to Aoife of Europa.

But what about the trainers who had a choice? Why did they choose to keep a few two year olds back from the races?

Chris trainer and owner of Watch This Space had two colts that did not start at two – Artworld and Busted Speech. After viewing their Ability Reports (ARs) Chris decided that they would be better suited as debuting three year olds. It is highly likely that neither of these colts will make an appearance until after the Kentucky Derby.

But, Chris seems to think that it will be worth the wait. Artworld has all the makings of a fine handicap racer, who probably won’t reach his peak until late in 2009 or even 2010. But Chris expects that he will have speed to burn and will be able to navigate the ovals as a handicapper.

To his other late colt, Busted Speech will defiantly make a few showings this year, but not until after the Derby. This colt seems to be a sprinter or miler, who will make a big late charge. Perhaps Chris’ patience will be well spent on these young colts.

Another owner who is keen on waiting until her colt is ready to make his roaring debut is Crista of Rivendell Stables. Retaliate was not mature enough to join his other two year old stable mates, so he stayed back at the farm for additional training.

Crista has the patience that many seem to lack, she knows that Retaliate may not even be ready to go at three, but will see him through. He has the potential to become a good if not great handicap horse, and she has no plans to break him down before he is ready.

Retaliate will make his debut mid-season in a small Allowance, but if he still isn’t ready, he may go back into training for another supplementary year. He has the spark that all trainers are looking for – it just may take awhile for it to ignite. But once it does, the training staff at Rivendell expects that it’ll stay alight for some time.

Rivendell matched Revenge and Steal the Gold, and has seen a bright future for Retaliate that they have a full-brother waiting in the wings. Trigun, along with Retaliate, seems to have inherited their dam’s aptitude for maturing slowly.

Another stable seems keen to start their horses slowly is Hopeful Farm. Chelsey has two ½ siblings who have not seen the tracks - Handsome Affair and Handsome Bane. Chelsey says that it would be an embarrassment if these colts were to race at two. They would have been kicked around and “they may not have known which way to go to the finish line.”

They are both by Handsome Man, the slow maturing stallion who was a sprinting champion at four and five. Chelsey reminded us that Handsome Man did not make his racing debut until the age of three (although, he wasn’t “created” until three…), and was not a well-known name until he showed up at four.

She expects that these colts will be started mid-late in the season, but isn’t really expecting too much until late in the season. She says that they have enough potential that she’ll wait until the end of the season or even the 2010 season to make a decision on them.

The two other colts that did not start at two were from KRF Stables – Rhyme and Three Strikes. Although, Three Strikes was sold at the auction to new stable Round Lake Riders.

So it seems that if a trainer has the patience to wait until their young horses grow up a bit, they are willing to see them through, until they can give a true showing of their worth... even if it means waiting until the horses are three... or even four.

We've seen young horses mature heads and shoulders above their peers, and simply dominate their class at the early stages... Machete and Smart Money are a couple that come to mind.. but what about those who mature slowly? Those that will make their G1 appearances later in life... they don't seem to be as popular... but perhaps these colts and the filly may be the next "IT" horse - if their trainers wait long enough...

Will these trainers’ patience pay off? Who knows...perhaps one of the unraced 2 year olds will be the next Kentucky Derby winner! Let’s look at some stats before I sign off…

14 - # of 2 year old who did not start in 2008
74 - # of horses who failed to run in the money (min. 1 start)
18,000 – Cost in $, the amount a racer in maintenance fees.
52 - # of horses that earned less than $18,000
207 - # of horses that earned more than $18,000