Milady BC Handicap

It's too bad that this one isn't a part of the PW contest, because on paper this one looks like it should be a really good one. A case could probably be made for any of these to win. So, let's get to it...

• Clever Critter: The senior member of this group. Has had a very nice career with 9 wins from 22 tries. She's probably best at a mile, but she's certainly capable of getting the extra half-furlong. She's went sub-1:41 for 8.5 furlongs twice in her career, including last year when she won this race. Her best time this year for the distance is 1:41.41 (102 PSR). Has tried this distance in her only two starts this year. Unfortunately for her, the horse that won both those races (Mystic River) is also in this one. We know she likes this track. We know she's capable of running a fast time at this distance. The question is does she have enough left in the tank to run a fast enough time to beat this field. It might be tough.
• Diabla: The only 3YO in the field. She's the PSR star of this one. Her lowest PSR of the year is 111. That came in her last outing, which just happens to be her only defeat of the year (in 3 starts). So far in her young career, she has 8 win from 15 starts. This will be only the second time she's ever tried more than 7 furlongs. She tried this distance at the end of her 2YO season, going 1:41.91 (94 PSR) at this track. At 7 furlongs and under, she's a load. She holds the world record for 6 furlongs and at one time held the mark for 4.5 furlongs. I don't think she'll be able to carry it over to 8.5 furlongs though. She has run a respectable time over the distance, but respectable won't be good enough in this field.
• Fly So High: This 4YO has made 22 starts in her career, winning 8 times. This will be her first try at the distance this year. In fact, this will be her first try at this distance since she was two. Don't let that fool you though, she's had some very impressive performances at this distance. She's gone sub-1:40 twice (amazingly enough, she finished second both times) and she's gone sub-1:41 another time (at this track in a win). Gave Scenic Sheba all should could handle last time out in losing a close one, so that should tell you on what level this one is at. Faced Mystic River early on this year at 7 furlongs, and finished second by less than a length. Her ability to carry her big time speed makes her a good possibility.
• Girl Talk: Probably the least accomplished horse in the field, which means that she's "only" won 4 times in 14 tries. Told you this one looked really good on paper! Has tried this distance twice this year getting 102 PSR's both times. Her best time this year is 1:40.88. She's also gone sub-1:41 one other time in her career. Might be better served if this one was about another furlong or so further. Still, I think she'll show nicely. I don't think she can beat all of these, but I'm looking for her to grab a minor piece of it.
• Mystic River: 7 wins from 23 tries so far in her career. She won her first 3 starts of the year, before a disappointing 5th in her last time out. Two of the wins are at this distance though. She beat Clever Critter in one of them, and Clever Critter, Girl Talk, and Smart Habit in the other. She's went sub-1:41 in both races with a best of 1:40.11 (114 PSR). She's also gone sub-1:41 one other time in her career. She has the maddening tendancy to mess around in the stretch. I think she's the one to beat in this one...if she doesn't let someone get her at the wire while she goofs off.
• Smart Habit: I know that I'm sounding like a broken record here, but another nice career...24 starts, 8 wins. She's tried this distance twice this year, winning once in the slop and finishing 5th to Mystic River. Her best time was in the loss, with a 1:41.61 (99 PSR). She's been sub-1:41 once in her career. Ran a huge one last time out, winning in 1:33.50 for a mile (114 PSR). Normally, I'd pick her to be right with Mystic River. But, not today. There's a big problem with that huge effort last time out...it came only 9 days ago! I have little doubt that it will affect her, and in this kind of a field that's trouble.
• You have to love fields like this. All of them are quality horses. I'm going with Mystic River to pull it out over Fly So High with Girl Talk taking third. Don't be surprised to see a big PSR number put up in this one.

What does it take to win a race?

I'm sure there are some owners out there thinking "just what does it take to get a win around here?" Believe me, we've all pretty much been there at some point along the way. Most of us in the Photo Finish world would give just about ANYTHING to know the answer to that question. Well, I'm not going to charge you anything (or even ANYTHING) for the answer. Make sure you're sitting down before I reveal the secret though.

Are you sitting?

Ready for it?

The answer is a good horse. Yes, it's that simple. Thanks for reading, and check back next week for my next article.






You're still here? It's over. Go home.



Ok, sorry about that. I've been up for WAY too long, and saw Ferris Bueller's Day Off recently. Couldn't help myself. Anywho...

Ok, where was I? Oh yeah, the secret to winning a race.

It really does take a good horse though. I know, real earth shattering news there. Ok, a dash of good luck and a dose of good placement also help.

Probably still not what you were expecting, eh? Wondering if I'm drawing this out because I get paid by the word? (I wish!) Maybe, I'm just out of ideas. (Not really, just in a goofy mood.) Are the stat sheets broken? (Talk about a nightmare! Let me back them up again now!)

Actually, there is a point to this week's article...and some interesting numbers to boot! As it usually happens with me, I got the idea for this article from recent forum conversations about stats/PSR's. I got to thinking about just how do they correlate to winning. So, I went back through the past three PF years and figured out the average winning PSR for each level of racing.

In the 2007 season, these are the average PSR's for winners:

G1 - 102.84
G2 - 98.09
G3 - 96.97
Stk - 95.23

For the 2008 season, these are the average PSR's for winners:

G1 - 105.49
G2 - 101.66
G3 - 98.81
Stk - 95.52

And finally, these are the numbers for the current season:

G1 - 105.77
G2 - 102.09
G3 - 98.44
Stk - 95.66

Now, you can see why I said the secret is to have a good horse. It's going to take a 95 (on average) just to win a lowly ungraded race! What's really interesting though is the fact that the numbers have been pretty consistent, especially at the ungraded level. At the graded level, the numbers all rose (by fairly similar amounts) from 2007 to 2008. From 2008 to this year though, they are pretty consistent. If you asked around, you'd probably find quite a few people that noticed that the competition got stiffer in 2008, especially at the highest levels.

Now, I don't want to discourage anyone that doesn't have any horses that are averaging 95+ PSR's. Just this year, there have been 8 G1 winners that registered a 95 PSR or below (with the lowest being a 68). At the G2 level, there have been 25 with a low of 70. At the G3 level, there have been 39 with a low of 75. And finally at the ungraded level, there have been 51 with a low of 46. As you can see, the lower you go down the scale, the easier it is to win with a sub-standard PSR. Obviously, one would expect this to be the case. Especially if everyone was running their horses at the proper level. (I know, I know. That's a very BIG if. But, that's also a different topic for a different time.)

So, it sort of becomes obvious how good placement (and luck) figure into the equation. If you have a horse that doesn't seem likely to post at least a 95 PSR, sticking them in a G1 might not be the best move. Of course, you could get lucky and find a really soft spot where it won't take a nice PSR to win. It has happened 8 times this year (out of 54 G1's...a little under 15%), but I know that I wouldn't be all that comfortable with those sort of odds. Or you might have a horse that all of a sudden makes a 30 point improvement over his last race (Hey, Venezia did it!). Again, probably not the sort of thing you would want to make a habit of counting on.

So, there you have it. A good horse; a little luck; and location, location, location. Then sit back and watch the wins roll in. Or at least, you'll see your horses be competitive with chances to win here and there.

Preakness Stakes

We come back this week for the second leg of the American Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. Twelve 3YO's have been entered, including one filly. Eight of the thirteen horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are back for another go. Surprisingly, only three of the top five finishers are here (1st, 3rd, and 4th). Meanwhile, the 6th through 9th and 11th place finishers are entered.

• Always Charming: Coming off 11th place finish in the Derby. Came home in :26.1 for the final two furlongs (8th best). Definitely not a good sign, but he did get held up some. HRFan says he incurred a "bump loss" of 3 1/2 lengths. To be honest though, a good portion of it happened right at and after the finish line. But, we'll be charitable and give him credit for the whole loss. So, where does that put him at? Well, he finished in 2:02.71. The credit for those lengths is about .56 seconds. That leaves him at 2:02.15, not much difference from his other try at the distance (2:02.22). From his Derby performance, he's just not fast enough to stay with the two standouts of this race. And since we're going a half furlong shorter this time, that's not very encouraging for him.
• Celtic Hero: Not sure what to make of this entry. He definitely has talent. He's won his last two. Unlike every other horse (save for the top three), his average PSR numbers say he's competitive . There's a problem though, and it's a pretty big one. He's tried dirt once, and he absolutely loathed it! I'm guessing if the sun's shining, you won't see this one make the starting gate. Don't be surprised if this one makes some noise going long on the turf this year though.
• Funny Jello: Funny entry. Does have a win this year...in a turf sprint. Unlike his stablemate above, he does like the dirt though. He did try 10 panels his last time out (2nd in 2:02.86), but this one is more of a miler. Was looking to try and capitalize on a short field, but will likely scratch out.
• Just Peachy: The lone filly entered, and a maiden at that! The average PSR column is all the farther you have to look on this one. Another likely scratch. Absolutely no shot if she doesn't.
• Machete: Makes yet another "run for the border", after finishing 3rd in the Derby. Led right from the start, and did so pretty comfortably for about the first 9 furlongs. Then he hit the wall...HARD! Finished up in :26.26 (10th best). His fractions leading up to that final quarter were: :22.92, :23.65, :24.04, and :23.96. Right around the 9.5 furlong mark in the Derby is when the anchor finally dug into the track, and Taco Bell put his nose out front. If it comes down to that again, we're in for quite a finish.
• Memcay's Laughter: Finished 4th in the Derby. Came home 3rd best in :25.28. Not great, but seemed to be a little better suited to 10 furlongs than most of the rest were. Came out of the race a little sore, but should be ok for this one...it was very minor (2 days). Doesn't look completely overmatched when looking at the average PSR's. If this race was half a furlong longer, I'd be more excited about his chances. But the half furlong less doesn't do him much good, as the two to beat are just faster than he is. Still, should be in the mix for a piece of it.
• O How Funny: 6th place finisher in the Derby. Didn't seem to be completely worn out at the end like most of the others, but still wasn't "flying" home either (:25.56, 5th best). Still kind of like him as an outsider, but wouldn't really put anything on it. His style puts him at a big disadvantage. He's quite a bit slower than the top two out of the gate, so he'll be in a hole right off the bat. He's not nearly as fast as those two, so it will be tough to make up ground without completely burning himself up early. He did finish better than those two, but not nearly well enough to make up for the early deficit. I know, I know...I seem to be making a case AGAINST him as an outsider. Still, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a piece of it.
• Princely Status: You have to hand it to Finlay. Come hell or highwater, he's going to enter one of his in the big races...even if they have no shot. 9th place finisher in the Derby. Came home in :25.34 (4th best). That's got to be encouraging, right? Well, not exactly. This one seems to be one of those one-pace plodders that needs the whole race to fall apart in front of him (like Giacomo in the RL Derby a few years ago). Consider his fractions from the Derby: :24.52, :24.07, :24.04, :23.98, and :25.34. He may be passing some of the horses in the stretch, but really only because he's going less slowly than they are. Unfortunately for him, I don't think there will be enough of them to make a difference.
• Seattle Nash: He's still yet to do anything this year with his nice looking speed/stamina, BUT... He was the ONLY horse actually running at the end of the Derby. He only finished 7th, but his time for the last quarter was :24.15 (over a full second better than anyone else). He did run into a slowing horse about 3 furlongs from the end (resulting in his slowest quarter), so it remains to be seen if his energy at the end is a result of that or just being more suited to the distance than all the rest were. I might be leaning towards the latter. He should be coming from way back again. Since this one's shorter, he may not have enough time to get there. But, the Belmont might be right up his alley.
• Taco Bell: Our Derby winner looks to grab the second leg of the Triple Crown. Probably won't be the post time favorite, but should be. 10 furlongs might not be his optimal distance (this was the slowest Derby in PF history), but you have to hand it to him...he outlasted them all to win it. Came home in :25.89 (7th best). Not great, but a win's a win! Luckily, this one is half furlong shorter. As mentioned above, he was right with Machete at the 9.5 furlong mark at the Derby. Let's hope it's like that again, it'll be fun to watch...though the respective owners might not agree with me!
• Thunder Heart: The other one of the four horses that came up sore after the Derby to continue on to the Preakness. It was only a day, so it shouldn't be much of a factor...hopefully. Finished 8th and came home in :26.36 (11th best). Was that a result of the injury? I guess we'll find out soon enough. Personally, I think the horse was a bit off for the Derby. Maybe a bit inconsistent? If the short layoff doesn't affect him adversely, I'm expecting a better effort this time.
• Venezia: A maiden that has yet to show much. Also tried 10 furlongs last time out (same race as Funny Jello), and finished 3rd in 2:02.97. Like FJ, probably more of a miler. Unlike FJ, he's going to stick around for his beating.
• This one could end up being really good. I'm going with Taco Bell to nose out Machete with Seattle Nash coming late to grab 3rd away from Memcay's Laughter and Thunder Heart.

Kentucky Derby

It's hard to believe, but it's already Derby time. The field has been announced, so let's take a look at them...my way.

• Always Charming : Highest Power Ranking of the entrants and third lowest average PSR. Which one is the better indicator? I'm thinking it's the PSR. His Power Ranking right now is being driven by a win in the UAE Derby. The only problem with that is he pretty much beat a whole lot of nothing in that race. In his other dirt start, he was beaten pretty easily by horses who aren't even here. He has gone the Derby distance already (in the UAE Derby). But, if he runs another 2:02.22, he'll get beaten by 12+ lengths.
• Arctic Memories : Got to love those parents! Started on dirt for the first time this year in his last race. Like his father, he seems to be more of a turf horse. But, that certainly didn't stop dad from winning this one. I don't look for a repeat though. Faded last time out at 1 1/8 miles, and was beaten pretty easily by one horse that isn't here and one that is (Memcay's Laughter).
• First Impression : Two nice starts to begin the year (both 100+ PSR), and then a big jump up in competition with predictable results. Might have the highest "top-end" of any horse in the field, but I don't think he wants anything to do with 10 panels. He tried it his last time out, and he crawled home (:26.55) despite not pressing the pace. Hasn't beaten anyone in this field, finishing behind Hold That Train twice.
• Hold That Train : Started off the year with four wins, before a very respectable 4th in the Dubai World Cup. Handled the Derby distance fairly well, as he came from well off the pace. That could benefit him in this one if there is a speed duel up front. A disturbing trend in that his PSR's have been declining as the distances increase. That being said, I think this one is in the mix at the end.
• Machete : Could this be Revenge's revenge? He gets a chance to do what his sire didn't get a chance to...run in the Derby. This will be Act IV of Machete - Taco Bell, as the two seem to be sharing the same schedule. Has won two of the three matchups so far...impressively. Will probably be the favorite. Not sure this one wants 10 furlongs either, but he has the talent to overcome that.
• Memcay's Laughter : Has yet to win this year in three tries. His best effort was the last one, which was also his only dirt start. Doesn't have great speed, but should last the distance. Could definitely see him coming on towards the end...maybe to pick up a piece of it.
• Princely Status: Second lowest PSR average in the field. Coming off a second place finish in the Wood, which would normally be a good sign. Not this year. The Wood was not good...to be kind. Don't see this one being a factor.
• O How Funny : Similar to his stablemate, Always Charming, in having a lower PSR average and a high Power Ranking. But, that's where the similarities end. He was very impressive in winning the Santa Anita Derby last out. Second fastest time of the year (behind Machete) for the 3YO's at 1 1/8 miles. It remains to be seen if this one wants 10 furlongs, but if you're looking for an "outsider" to win...this might be your horse.
• Seattle Nash : Another head scratcher. Not exactly sure what this one's done to show he belongs in here. Best finish so far is a third in the Florida Derby. He's run a couple of 90 PSR's. Ummm...uhhh...he has good looking speed/stamina. Unfortunately, he's yet to do anything with it. Another one I don't see as being a factor.
• Scenic Sky : My head will end up raw after discussing this one. Well, he has that huge average race strength score. That was his only race so far. It was on turf. He was trounced. Absolutely no shot.
• Taco Bell : Machete's partner. They must like each other's company or something. Actually, he's a pretty good match for Machete. Lots of speed. Might not want 10 furlongs. Has the talent to possibly overcome it. Another one with the PSR's trending the wrong way as the distances increase. Did beat Machete once out of their three races. I do think Machete is just a bit better though. Look for him to be in the mix at the top of the stretch. We'll see if he can stay the distance though.
• The Color Of Money : He's a Silver Charm, so I like him immediately. Won the Gotham, beating another of the entrants (Ur Wildest Dreams). Finished 4th in the Arkansas, and the top three aren't here. Beaten by Seattle Nash and Princely Status in the Golden Gate...ugh. I'll be pulling for him because of his sire, but I'm not holding my breath.
• Thunder Heart : Another Thunder Arctic that doesn't particularly love the dirt. Only two starts this year, but the second was a very nice third in the Santa Anita. Ended up with the 4th best time for 3YO's at 1 1/8 miles. I think 10 furlongs will be right up his alley, and wouldn't be surprised at all to see him right there at the end.
• Ur Wildest Dreams : My scalp can't take this! Was impressive winner first time out this year. On turf. In a sprint. Stretched out to a mile next time. On turf. Didn't do as well. Third time out, tried a dirt mile. Did even worse. Absolutely wants no part of 10 furlongs. Might need a tow from the ambulance.
• So, if you're a chalk eating weasel, Machete might be your horse. If you like to look for the possible values/upsets, take a look at O How Funny, Memcay's Laughter, or Thunder Heart.

Power Rankings - Top 25 Overall

• I'd call that a "significant bearing on the rankings"! The big dollar/high grade races are worth so many points that they have an immediate impact. The winner's average points shoot way up, which in turn cause an immediate impact on strength of race scores. Of course, a horse can't run in these type races every week because there just aren't that many. So, no matter how well she does the rest of the year, Broken Dream's average points have no where to go but down from here.
• The horse with the current highest average race strength is 3YO colt, Scenic Sky, with a 6.729! You'll have that when you run in a four-horse field and the other three are current top-25 memebrs (Broken Dream, Scenic Sheba, and Definite Gem). Now all Scenic Sky has to do is score some points so he can take advantage of that race strength number.
• It reasonably follows that the previously mentioned race, the Espom Handicap, is the current strongest race. The just run Dubai World Cup checks in at number two with a 5.257 score. In the third position is the Dubai Sheema Classic at 4.681.
• Take a good look at the lone 2YO on the list, as you probably won't see that too often. Unfortunately for Northern K D, there won't be enough $1,000,000 G2's available to him to overcome the low race strength scores that will hurt 2YO's all year.
• Now that there's a previous week's list to compare with, you can see how a horse's ratings will flucuate...even when they sit the week out. Perfect Bell didn't race this week, yet her average race strength score is a little lower. How does that work? Well, horses that she faced earlier this year raced this week, and overall caused her race strength score to drop a bit.
• On the other end of the scale, there's Braveheart. He sat out the week and saw his race strength score jump a nice amount. He had horses from both of his previous starts improve their power rankings, thus improving his race strength score.

Top 25 PSR averages - 3YO colts

Since the Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching, it seems like a good time for this list.

1. Magic Waltz - 108.588 (1)
2. Eternamente - 106.380 (4)
3. Hold That Train - 105.984 (5)
4. Bold N' Honorable - 105.730 (3)
5. Machete - 104.710 (2)
6. Taco Bell - 103.900 (2)
7. Jenny's My Gal - 103.542 (3)
8. All For Dansilver - 101.215 (4)
9. Rolling Thunder - 100.970 (4)
10. Fantasy Flight - 100.175 (3)
11. Memcay's Laughter - 98.993 (3)
12. Confederation - 98.968 (4)
13. First Impression - 98.281 (3)
14. Blast of Storm - 97.287 (4)
15. Maximize - 97.241 (2)
16. Dancin In The Dark - 96.995 (3)
17. Celtic Hero - 96.288 (3)
18. Runninwithscissors - 95.858 (3)
19. Ur Wildest Dreams - 95.665 (3)
20. Mighty Gaze - 93.485 (2)
21. Rebel - 93.141 (2)
22. Gonewiththewind - 92.946 (2)
23. Personaly Majestic - 92.421 (2)
24. Diascay's Shadow - 92.272 (4)
25. Galapagos - 92.128 (3)