Preakness Stakes

We come back this week for the second leg of the American Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes. Twelve 3YO's have been entered, including one filly. Eight of the thirteen horses that ran in the Kentucky Derby are back for another go. Surprisingly, only three of the top five finishers are here (1st, 3rd, and 4th). Meanwhile, the 6th through 9th and 11th place finishers are entered.

• Always Charming: Coming off 11th place finish in the Derby. Came home in :26.1 for the final two furlongs (8th best). Definitely not a good sign, but he did get held up some. HRFan says he incurred a "bump loss" of 3 1/2 lengths. To be honest though, a good portion of it happened right at and after the finish line. But, we'll be charitable and give him credit for the whole loss. So, where does that put him at? Well, he finished in 2:02.71. The credit for those lengths is about .56 seconds. That leaves him at 2:02.15, not much difference from his other try at the distance (2:02.22). From his Derby performance, he's just not fast enough to stay with the two standouts of this race. And since we're going a half furlong shorter this time, that's not very encouraging for him.
• Celtic Hero: Not sure what to make of this entry. He definitely has talent. He's won his last two. Unlike every other horse (save for the top three), his average PSR numbers say he's competitive . There's a problem though, and it's a pretty big one. He's tried dirt once, and he absolutely loathed it! I'm guessing if the sun's shining, you won't see this one make the starting gate. Don't be surprised if this one makes some noise going long on the turf this year though.
• Funny Jello: Funny entry. Does have a win this year...in a turf sprint. Unlike his stablemate above, he does like the dirt though. He did try 10 panels his last time out (2nd in 2:02.86), but this one is more of a miler. Was looking to try and capitalize on a short field, but will likely scratch out.
• Just Peachy: The lone filly entered, and a maiden at that! The average PSR column is all the farther you have to look on this one. Another likely scratch. Absolutely no shot if she doesn't.
• Machete: Makes yet another "run for the border", after finishing 3rd in the Derby. Led right from the start, and did so pretty comfortably for about the first 9 furlongs. Then he hit the wall...HARD! Finished up in :26.26 (10th best). His fractions leading up to that final quarter were: :22.92, :23.65, :24.04, and :23.96. Right around the 9.5 furlong mark in the Derby is when the anchor finally dug into the track, and Taco Bell put his nose out front. If it comes down to that again, we're in for quite a finish.
• Memcay's Laughter: Finished 4th in the Derby. Came home 3rd best in :25.28. Not great, but seemed to be a little better suited to 10 furlongs than most of the rest were. Came out of the race a little sore, but should be ok for this one...it was very minor (2 days). Doesn't look completely overmatched when looking at the average PSR's. If this race was half a furlong longer, I'd be more excited about his chances. But the half furlong less doesn't do him much good, as the two to beat are just faster than he is. Still, should be in the mix for a piece of it.
• O How Funny: 6th place finisher in the Derby. Didn't seem to be completely worn out at the end like most of the others, but still wasn't "flying" home either (:25.56, 5th best). Still kind of like him as an outsider, but wouldn't really put anything on it. His style puts him at a big disadvantage. He's quite a bit slower than the top two out of the gate, so he'll be in a hole right off the bat. He's not nearly as fast as those two, so it will be tough to make up ground without completely burning himself up early. He did finish better than those two, but not nearly well enough to make up for the early deficit. I know, I know...I seem to be making a case AGAINST him as an outsider. Still, I wouldn't be shocked to see him get a piece of it.
• Princely Status: You have to hand it to Finlay. Come hell or highwater, he's going to enter one of his in the big races...even if they have no shot. 9th place finisher in the Derby. Came home in :25.34 (4th best). That's got to be encouraging, right? Well, not exactly. This one seems to be one of those one-pace plodders that needs the whole race to fall apart in front of him (like Giacomo in the RL Derby a few years ago). Consider his fractions from the Derby: :24.52, :24.07, :24.04, :23.98, and :25.34. He may be passing some of the horses in the stretch, but really only because he's going less slowly than they are. Unfortunately for him, I don't think there will be enough of them to make a difference.
• Seattle Nash: He's still yet to do anything this year with his nice looking speed/stamina, BUT... He was the ONLY horse actually running at the end of the Derby. He only finished 7th, but his time for the last quarter was :24.15 (over a full second better than anyone else). He did run into a slowing horse about 3 furlongs from the end (resulting in his slowest quarter), so it remains to be seen if his energy at the end is a result of that or just being more suited to the distance than all the rest were. I might be leaning towards the latter. He should be coming from way back again. Since this one's shorter, he may not have enough time to get there. But, the Belmont might be right up his alley.
• Taco Bell: Our Derby winner looks to grab the second leg of the Triple Crown. Probably won't be the post time favorite, but should be. 10 furlongs might not be his optimal distance (this was the slowest Derby in PF history), but you have to hand it to him...he outlasted them all to win it. Came home in :25.89 (7th best). Not great, but a win's a win! Luckily, this one is half furlong shorter. As mentioned above, he was right with Machete at the 9.5 furlong mark at the Derby. Let's hope it's like that again, it'll be fun to watch...though the respective owners might not agree with me!
• Thunder Heart: The other one of the four horses that came up sore after the Derby to continue on to the Preakness. It was only a day, so it shouldn't be much of a factor...hopefully. Finished 8th and came home in :26.36 (11th best). Was that a result of the injury? I guess we'll find out soon enough. Personally, I think the horse was a bit off for the Derby. Maybe a bit inconsistent? If the short layoff doesn't affect him adversely, I'm expecting a better effort this time.
• Venezia: A maiden that has yet to show much. Also tried 10 furlongs last time out (same race as Funny Jello), and finished 3rd in 2:02.97. Like FJ, probably more of a miler. Unlike FJ, he's going to stick around for his beating.
• This one could end up being really good. I'm going with Taco Bell to nose out Machete with Seattle Nash coming late to grab 3rd away from Memcay's Laughter and Thunder Heart.