Thursday, January 10, 2008

What If.......................................


“What if” – now there’s a statement to make most people shudder when they hear it. What if the moon were made of cheese, what if Laurie didn’t have to work rather than rely on donations to run the game, what if wishes were horses, what if ARs were true……. The list is endless!

So lets take a fairly topical “What If” and say “What if horses had to prove their eligibility to run the Kentucky Derby”. OK – now you have got yourself back off the floor and recovered lets look at this rationally.

Every year the Derby field is oversubscribed and there is always the odd horse that quite honestly don’t deserve to be in the starting gate entered and some horses which have the credentials to run well are balloted out. Recently on the forum there has been a very well debated topic about possibly introducing eligibility criteria allowing those who have shown form, earned money and/or placing in select races. This idea seems to be gaining momentum and several long standing owners have expressed a wish to see such a system introduced sooner rather than later – even if they don’t have a horse that would meet this standard.

I believe a more radical approach is required and suggest that only horses who have finished in the top 3 of races deemed to be “Derby Trials” are allowed entry into the Kentucky Derby itself. The races, ranging from 8.5f – 10f on dirt would be:

Fountain of Youth

Revenge Stakes

Florida Derby

Louisiana Derby

UAE Derby

Flamingo Stakes

Santa Anita Derby

Arkansas Derby

Toyota Blue Grass

Wood Memorial

OK so now you have finished screaming at the screen and digested what is required, lets look at this years field and see who would make it. The pre-race card looks like this:

Horse Stable Age/Sex Scratch Instructions

Bayonet Snowbank Farm 3 Move to 5076 if removed from full field

Born to Run Woodbury Stables 3 Scratch if No/No!

Camena's Thunder FDL Lodge 3 None

Dallas Cowboys Zippy Chippy Stables 3 None

Faldo Olmo Dorato 3 None

Ghostseeker Spartan Racing Stables 3 None

Iginla Iron Racing 3 None

Islegetrevenge Spartan Racing Stables 3 If full Ghostseeker runs

Ladies Mon Wolf Ridge Stables 3 None

Lovely To See You Long Island Hayburners 3 None

New Tower Goforwand Stables 3 None

Petenwell Smokey's Stable 3 None

Priceless Revenge Chiknsmack Stables 3 Scratch if Mud/No-

Razer Boomslang Pointgiven Stables 3 None

Regal Son Snowbank Farm 3 None

Ride The Sun Godolphin17 3F Scratch if No-

Serendipity Rainbow 3 None

Smarty Gone Wild Zippy Chippy Stables 3 None

Tower Coup Goforwand Stables 3 None


If we apply the Derby Trial requirement to these runners we would be left with:

Horse

Bayonet

Born to Run

Faldo

Iginla

Ladies Mon

Lovely To See You

New Tower

Petenwell

Priceless Revenge

Razer Boomslang

Regal Son

Ride The Sun

Tower Coup


This means from the original 19 entered, we are left with a very select field of 13, but hold on – there are several other horses who would be eligible who haven’t been entered who won or were placed in the “Trials” and these are:

Cajun Flash

Big Slick

Queen Street

Nystoi

Revenue

The Big O

Blockbuster

Prodigal Sun

Made You Look

Party Shoes

Arctic Slicker

Sweet Tombi


So a further 12 COULD have been entered making a pre-card entry of 25 and as the field size is restricted to 20 that means that there would be 5 horses to be scratched, but if you look again at the original field 4 of these horses could be scratched depending on the track. However if none were due to be scratched and come post time The Steward was left with a field of 25, then the usual PF rule for full fields would come into play, which for those of you who can’t remember is “All entrants will be ordered by lifetime earnings. Any stables who enter more than one horse will have one horse removed beginning with the lowest earnings multiple horse starting from the lowest earning end of the list. If there are no multiple entries then the top 20 earnings horses will be taken, and all others dropped from the field.”

There must be several other ways of sorting out eligibility for the race –including nominations at different stages (ie birth, as a yearling, 2yr old and then as a 3yr old gradually increasing in cost), season earnings alone, PSR average etc – there is a long list!


I am sure that there are players who are totally against the introduction of such a rule and would see it as an infringement of their PF right to enter their horses how and when they like but on the other hand there are many players who would like to see some kind of “entry system” in place which would help bring the game onto the next level and also give the winner of the Kentucky Derby the proper respect that should be due to such a winner, rather than it become a point of ridicule by saying “OK he won the Kentucky Derby but what did he beat?”.

So however you approach your entries for the Kentucky Derby, be it because they have proven themselves over the distance, because they are bred to like it or simply because you want to have a runner in it – wouldn’t it be nice to have the winner and be able to say “He beat the best” rather than “He won but I wish X had been in it”.

If you don’t agree with the writer, then no hard feelings but speak out – don’t be the one to sit in a darkened room mumbling insanely to yourself saying “no one listens” – the forum is your chance to express your views so use it! You never know it could be your horse winning the Derby next season!

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Holy Bull was a much tougher race than the Flamingo this year. The Flamingo was won by a horse going 100+ for the first time ever, the runner-up was my 4th string dirt colt who also broke 100 for the first time while the other 4 horses in the field are maidens that have yet to break into the 90s. One of those four would qualify for the Derby (ignoring, of course, that if everyone knew in advance that the Flamingo was a last chance qualifier of sorts then it would've had a full field). But still...

If we were to set up the main derby trail races as derby trials, than only the winners should be taken. Win and you're in. Don't win and you don't deserve to be in (see Blockbuster).

The whole reason I started the thread on the forum was to highlight how stupid the current full fields rule is. Changing the system to one like you put forward where the end result is "if there are still too many then use the stupid rule anyway" is a waste of time.

What would I do? Well, any horse that hasn't run a 100+ PSR can't run. Even some pretty average horses (Blockbuster, for example) can break 100 by Derby day. Then you order all entrants by earnings (either career or just 3yo - I lean toward the latter) and the top 20 get a start.

Going by 3yo earnings I think is better than career earnings. In the 4 months before the Derby, I could only run a horse four or five times and still have them on target for the derby (PR ran 4 times even with 6 weeks off with injury, Nystoi ran 5 and would be spot on for the Derby were he entered, Sun Burn ran 6 and had had enough at start 5 but I didn't listen so he goes on the shelf for a while). This means someone like Karen who feels bad if she runs her horses more than once every couple of months doesn't get so far behind me (say, 5 starts vs 2) than she would if 2yo earnings counted too (something like 15 vs 7).

It also means that all earnings are likely to be more "relevant"; meaning they come from races that somewhat resemble the Derby. The big money for 2yos is turf sprints, a dirt sprint and the BC races. Winning the Slipper/MM/BD is really no indicator of how a horse will like 10f D, so it shouldn't impact whether or not a horse gets a start at 10f D. The big money for early 3yos however is the UAE/SA/FL derbies, the GF.com S plus that one day with the TBG/Wood/AK Dby. With the exception of the Vic DBY and Caul. Guineas, the big early races for 3yos are 1mi+ on dirt. Chances are that the top-earning 3yos will be ones that have come out of these races that resemble the Derby (with maybe a turf 3yo that is better than all of them put together and a 3yo Dubai Golden Shaheen winner thrown in for luck ;)).

Apologies for the long read.

Amanda O'Brien said...

NO dont apologise but I think that perhaps its a reply that deserves to be on the forum?

Jim Webber said...

I like the idea where the Derby entries come from the top three finishers of specified trial races.

The earnings idea simply favors stables who overrun their horses.

Anonymous said...

"It also means that all earnings are likely to be more "relevant"; meaning they come from races that somewhat resemble the Derby. The big money for 2yos is turf sprints, a dirt sprint and the BC races. Winning the Slipper/MM/BD is really no indicator of how a horse will like 10f D, so it shouldn't impact whether or not a horse gets a start at 10f D. The big money for early 3yos however is the UAE/SA/FL derbies, the GF.com S plus that one day with the TBG/Wood/AK Dby. With the exception of the Vic DBY and Caul. Guineas, the big early races for 3yos are 1mi+ on dirt. Chances are that the top-earning 3yos will be ones that have come out of these races that resemble the Derby (with maybe a turf 3yo that is better than all of them put together and a 3yo Dubai Golden Shaheen winner thrown in for luck ;))." Sprints shouldn't count as they are not relevant. You have to count the major 2yo races like the BC Juvy, KY Cup Juvy, Futurity, Breeders Futurity, Champagne, Norfolk, Ky Jockey Club, Hollywood Futurity, etc. The only fair way to pick a Derby field is by Graded earnings. Thats why they do it that way in real life.

Anonymous said...

Jim,

"The earnings idea simply favors stables who overrun their horses."

Not if the races that count are the specific graded races. Overrun horses will need rest or get injured if they continually face the big guns over and over. Thats why you dont see them doing it in real life. Besides, the major races on each coast are generally spaced accoringly and they occur on the same weekends in most cases so you cant use the fantasy shipping to your advantage.