Initial Photo Finish Power Rankings - Top 25 Overall.

Since we're waiting on results today (and it looks like I finally have the program working the way I want it to), I figured I'd post the intitial Power Rankings for the year. I know I used that name last year for a bit, but this is something completely different. I just couldn't think of anything better to call it than Power Rankings. Anyway, without further ado, here they are!

• The first three columns should be pretty self-explanatory.
• Average points comes from all points accumulated by the horse all year divided by the number of starts they've made. Horses accumulate points by finishing "on the board" in a race. Each race has a designated point value based on it's grade and purse. Therefore, a $500,000 G1 is worth much more than an ungraded $50,000 race.
• Average race strength comes from adding up the strength of each race the horse has run in and then dividing by the number of starts. A single race's strength is determined by adding up every runner in the race's average points and then dividing by the number of entries in said race.
• The Power Ranking number is derived by simply multiplying the average points and average race strength. Just a quick note. The multiplication in this table might not work out exactly as each column has been limited to three decimal places and in the original sheet (where the actual multiplication takes place) the full numbers are used.
• The average PSR isn't used in the Power Rankings in any way. It's just provided here as an extra column of data...something else to chew on as it were. Stats geeks just can't help including data!
• How does a horse with a 65 PSR average rank so high? Well, after her initial race where she posted an 11 PSR, she won a $350,000 G1 and finished 2nd in a $250,000 G1.
• Is Double Dome really the 5th best horse? Well, that certainly remains to be seen. But, he certainly came up big at the right moment. All his points come from winning a $1,600,000 G1. A race that is coming in with a 2.364 strength number at the moment.
• Will running below your level hurt your ranking much? Well, it certainly didn't help A Bus out much as he has the second best average points, but was leap-frogged by a couple of horses with better race strengths. That $150,000 G2 win doesn't bring a lot of points to the table compared to what a G1 would have. His second place in a $250,000 G1 scored more points for him, plus brought in a better strength score. Luckily for him, 9 of the 11 horses in the G2 have scored points already so it's strength score isn't completely terrible.
• Another example of how your ranking can be affected: Braveheart, one of the best horses in the game, has two races so far. One is a 3rd place finish in a $1,500,000 G1. The other is a win in a $100,000 G3. That 3rd place finish accounts for a whopping 91% of his point total. Plus, the G1's strength score comes in at a very strong 2.529 while the lowly G3 drags his average way down by checking in at .497!
• If you asked a variety of people who the best 3YO colt was, you'd probably get a bunch of "Machete" or "Taco Bell" replies. Yet, they're no where to be found in the top-25. Machete and Taco Bell have both raced twice...against each other. So, they're both being dragged down by the same factors. For one, both races have been G2's...so less points available to start with. Secondly, their race strength is poor so far with a .685 and a .351. They have Bold N' Honorable to thank for the first score as he's the only other horse in either race (19 total entries combined) to bring any significant points to the table.
• This week's races will have a significant bearing on the rankings. The Dubai races, especially the World Cup, are worth a TON of points. It probably isn't possible for the World Cup winner NOT to be at the top next week.

Top 25 PSR averages for 2009

1. Miss Bust - 121.92 (3)
2. Sverige - 121.839 (1)
3. Fashion Tower - 120.798 (1)
4. Attack At Dawn - 120.386 (4)
5. Diabla - 120.036 (1)
6. Morning After - 117.355 (1)
7. Returnofthedancer - 116.259 (2)
8. Vivaldi - 116.031 (1)
9. Broken Dream - 115.919 (3)
10. Turf Dreams - 115.617 (1)
11. Nova - 115.449 (2)
12. Mystic River - 114.993 (2)
13. Run Missy Run - 114.838 (1)
14. Scenic Sheba - 114.408 (2)
15. Queen Street - 114.358 (3)
16. Mr Purler - 114.299 (2)
17. Led Astray - 114.173 (2)
18. Tunnel Vision - 113.622 (2)
19. Purple Passion - 111.935 (2)
20. Dulce Sonido - 111.202 (1)
21. Isca's Revenge - 110.955 (2)
22. Blazing Risk - 110.774 (4)
23. Pegasus Song - 110.655 (2)
24. Dane Carson -110.597 (1)
25. Bull's Legacy - 110.34 (1)

A new ranking system on the way...

It's been largely unknown (though there are a few of you out there that have heard rumors of this) that I've been working on a new ranking system for Photo Finish racers. Before I go into a little bit of a description of the system, I'll give you some background on what inspired the new system.

It basically started with some exchanged emails between a few other members of the PF community and myself. These correspondences concerned the issue of horses being run way below their level. Anyway, the discussions we had got me to thinking (which is usually trouble!) that it would be interesting to come up with a system based on the level competed at. I spent a lot of time thinking about what factors should go into the system, how races should be ranked, how to implement everything into a spreadshet, etc... Next came the actual setting up of the spreadsheet, which has been a chore and a half to get all the formulas correct and funtioning properly.

Sound interesting so far? I guess it's time now to let you in on just what does go into the system. Basically, I took every race on the calendar and assigned it a point value. The point value was based on what level race it was (G1, G2, G3, or G4 - ungraded) and what the purse was. The higher the grade/purse, the more the race is worth in the system. Points are awarded for finishing on the board (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in any race. That was the easy part. It would have made for decent rankings just like that, but I wasn't satisfied. I also wanted to implement a race strength feature to the system.

Race strength, eh? Some of you may be wondering what the heck that is. Well, every race on the schedule will now be given a "strength value" based on what every runner in that particular race accomplishes all year. (This had been the "fun" part in the programming.) The beauty of this (to me anyway) is that if horse A wins a race, and then horses B and C from that same race go on to have nice years, horse A then benefits from having actually beaten quality opponents. For those familiar with certain computer rankings in football (American style), it's kind of like a strength of schedule or secondary points feature. You benefit by having those on your schedule do well.

Anyway, that's the basics of this new system. If you have any questions/comments about it, let me know. I also haven't yet decided how to put the final points together yet (the horses average and the race strength average), so if you'd like to help me with that decision, get in touch with me.

In reference to the last comment, it's not ready to give out rankings quite yet. I still want to make sure everything is computing properly, plus I still need to determine what to do with those final numbers. But, I can give out these interesting little tidbits for now...

• The top three so far for raw average (no race strength, just how they did and where) are Perfect Bell, A Bus, and Isca's Revenge. Not really anything to be surprised about there. Perfect Bell has a win in a $350,000 G1 and a second in a $1,600,000 G1. A Bus has a win in a $150,000 G2 (that hurts some), a second in a $250,000 G1 (worth more than the G2 win), and a win in a $1,500,000 G1 (that really helped), and Isca's Revenge has a win in a $500,000 G1 and a second in a $1,000,000 G1.
• The top three so far for raw race strength average are Perfect Bell, Pefect Goer (1 race so far in the Santa Anita Handicap), and a tie between Isca's Revenge and Pegasus Song ( not surprising since their only two races were against each other!)
• The toughest race so far is the G1 Caulfield Stakes. But that's being driven almost completely by the winner, Perfect Bell and the small field. I wouldn't expect this one to stay on top all year.
• Next is the G1 Santa Anita Oaks. Again, benefitting from the small field (only 2 starters). Plus, the winner is two-for-two in G1's so far. Looks like this one's ranking will be completely up to what the second place horse does all year.
• The third toughest is the G1 Santa Anita Handicap. Pegasus Song and Isca's Revenge are pretty much given's. It'll be up to the other four to keep this one's rating strong.
• Oh yeah, I'm also tracking PSR's with the sheet. The top three for average PSR so far are Miss Bust, Sverige, and Fashion Tower.

Review by Sunset Ranch

Jamie, the proud owner of the newly established stable of Sunset Ranch (notable: 5 yo male Naive) has submitted a review and some random thoughts from the angle of a new player.

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Tonight as I go back and read some of the older posts that have been submitted on the forum I feel like there are a couple of things I would like to say about the game.

First of all, I have been playing sim games for a long time, back in the day before computers were big and we got our points from the newspaper box scores. I have played Nascar, NFL, College football, NBA, College basketball, and am currently playing in a stock market sim game. I have even been "commissioner" of a few of these leagues so I know a little bit of what it takes to run a successful game. Never in my years of playing these have I been affiliated with a better or more diverse group of people then what Laurie has created in Photo Finish.

When I first signed on for this I had no idea what I was doing I have never been to a race track and have very limited experience with horses, but I love to gamble and there for I thought I would give it a try. The game is phenomenal, I love it (I must, being I have yet to win any real money) but I must be honest with you I really, really enjoy the forum. I have never been out of the United States,( traveled a little throughout the country) but in just this short time, I have talked to people in Australia, England, Texas, Italy, Spain, and many countries throughout Europe ,and probably a bunch of other countries I didn't even know of. This "game" for me is a lot more than just horses racing around a track I feel like I have made many friends, people I can talk with and share my sad times and happy times with.

So I would just like to say THANK YOU to all of you and I feel very fortunate to be a part of such a wonderful group of people, I only wish we could all meet up one day for the Breeders Cup and knock down a few, Margaritas, Pints, Guinness, Whiskey, fine wines from Spain, Fosters (oil can), and a hot Budweiser from the good ol’ U.S of A.

Laurie you should be very proud of yourself for what you have accomplished, we all should be proud of building the horse racing Dynasty that is PHOTO FINISH.

Jamie C.

Sunset Ranch

(Visit Sunset Ranch here)

Top 25 PSR's of 2009

Not quite two months into our 2009 season and we have an interesting leaderboard for the top PSR's of the year.

1. Pleasant Vengeance - 125.725
2. Attack At Dawn - 124.535
3. Miss Bust - 123.335
4. Miss Bust - 122.129
5. Feellikeanumber - 121.856
6. Sverige - 121.839
7. Purple Passion - 120.798
8. Fashion Tower - 120.798
9. Diabla - 120.036
10. Attack At Dawn - 120.029
11. Queen Street - 119.898
12. Returnofthedancer - 119.435
13. Ur Wildest Dreams - 119.394
14. Fuchsia - 119.139
15. Machete - 118.759
16. Racey Lake - 118.017
17. Morning After - 117.355
18. Bold N' Honorable - 116.809
19. Yes Zippy Can - 116.735
20. Little Big Sky - 116.451
21. Vivaldi - 116.031
22. Mystic River - 115.987
23. Victory Dance - 115.855
24. Perfect Dancer - 115.675
25. Turf Dreams - 115.617

• Of the 25, only 13 of them were winning efforts! 9 came from second place horses, 2 from third place finishers, and one was even from a 4th place horse!
• Only one horse (Little Big Sky) made the list with a speed rating of less than "Very Good". He was also one of only two horses to crack the list in a race other than a sprint.
• The surface breakdown: 16 on turf and 9 on dirt.
• The list consists of 13 fillies and 12 colts. But, 10 of the first 11 are from fillies.
• Two 6YO's and two 5YO's made the list. It sure is nice seeing the older horses still in training.
• Five 2YO's in the list...all fillies...from just two races. Talk about stacked races, there were two other 100+ performances from those two races as well.
• Player owned stallion report: Eight player owned stallions are represented on the list. Bellbuster with three offspring. Bold N' Free and Revenge with two. One each from Dawn Patrol, Forest Dancer, King Midas, Spanish Midnight, and Troll Tower.
• Pleasant Vengeance?!?! Where the heck did that come from? She is a Revenge, so maybe it shouldn't be surprising. But, the other two horses in that race (#24 Perfect Dancer and Love For Thunder) managed to post 114+ PSR's as well. Despite the fact that they've combined for 1 win in 62 starts between them! Kind of sounds like the track was souped up or something.
• Three world records on the list, and two of them belong to horses from Firstholme Racing. Not a bad way to start off a season!
• Doing it on the big stage: 5 of the performances came in Grade 1's (though only two of them were winners).
• For all the fans of underdogs, isn't it pretty neat to see an offspring of Zippy Chippy do well?

Horse Passports to be Introduced

OK so now I have your attention I will start!

It’s a subject that has been discussed several times in the past but I thought it time to bring it back to the game. As more and more players join, the game evolves and more and more horses are being bred but there is only so many races that can be run in any one week.

A very heated discussion last year saw many views and suggestions put forward but none that would have been easy to implement or keep track of.

So with the Forum generally being a bit “quiet” to say the least, I have sat down with my trusty Map Britannica (oh the good old days when most of the world was pink), dusted down the abacus, sharpened all the crayons stuck in the back of the drawers and “rescued” a ruler from work and the results – lots of coloured lines criss-crossing the world all representing different journeys our beloved horses can take in the pursuit of glory, world domination and of course, money!

The map will follow but the map and figures I am working are look like this.

1. Races take place in four major parts of our “PF” world – North America (inc Canada), Europe (inc France etc), Dubai and Australia.

2. Horses based in the US (as based on their owning stables location) would pay the following shipping charges – to race in Europe they would pay $500, to race in Dubai $750 and to race in Australia, $1000. However once they have flown to the “continent” they will be able to race there in consecutive weeks without any further charges.

3. Horses based in Europe (as based on their owning stables location) would pay the following shipping charges – to race in US they would pay $750, to race in Dubai $500 and to race in Australia, $1000. However once they have flown to the “continent” they will be able to race there in consecutive weeks without any further charges.

4. Horses based in Australia/New Zealand (as based on their owning stables location) would pay the following shipping charges – to race in Europe they would pay $1000, to race in Dubai $500 and to race in Australia, $750. However once they have flown to the “continent” they will be able to race there in consecutive weeks without any further charges.

So for example, Amanda of Bally Doyle who is based in Europe, wants to run her horse in a race in America in Week 4. So she pays the “ticket” cost of $750. The horse arrives and runs in the US in Weeks 4, 6 and 10. Then she decides to run her horse in Australia in Week 12. So she then has to pay $1000 to get her horse down there. Following the run there, she selects her horse to run in Europe in Week 20 so then pays another $1000 to ship, whereas the horse then runs there till a suitable race is run in Dubai. Charges this time are $500 for shipping. Then the horse is shipped on again to the US so charges of $750 are paid. And on it goes.

If you are a little lost here is a simple breakdown:

US to Europe = $500

US to Dubai = $750

US to Australia = $1000

Europe to US = $750

Europe to Dubai = $500

Europe to Australia = $1000

Australia to US = $750

Australia to Dubai = $500

Australia to Europe = $1000

Whilst at first glance you will say the figures don’t match on “round trips” it does make sense in its own way. Australia to the US can be done “in reverse” so therefore airfares are cheaper.

And remember – this is not definitive, set in stone or approved of in any way by our Racing Steward but is simply something that I feel should be looked at in more detail whilst the game is going through a little bit of a lull.

So hurry up and get those passports ready – be they equine, feline, canine or even human!

Simple Is As Simple Does - or How to write good scratch instructions

Having taken some time out to read the Pre Race card this week, it was noticeable that scratch instructions are getting more and more intricate as the players try to give their horses a good chance by letting them run on ground they like and pulling them out of ground they wont act on, or for other reasons like too many runners for a horse that dislikes crowds etc.

Whilst one can appreciate the reasoning behind them, ie to give your horse the best chance – take a moment to think of our Racing Steward and how she interprets your written words.

Some players keep it simple, for example:

Scratch if No

Simple – if the horse’s preference for the surface is no – then its scratched and not raced that week.

There are plenty of variations on that theme – “scratch if no” “if more than 4 runners” “scratch if (x) horse is running”. Easy and straightforward and understand by all.

Then it gets a bit more complicated. When the new automated entry system was introduced the Racing Steward allowed people to have a bit more freedom with their instructions. Personally I feel a bad move by her (and not something that happens very often!).

Lets take some of the examples seen recently.

Move to 1234, 5678, 9876 if No or No!. Scr.

If no- move to 1234 if more than 12,scratch if No

if soft or mud, or 2345 scr if hard or mud

And it goes on. The permutations are endless and the Steward must sit there sometimes literally pulling her hair out trying to decipher what the players are trying to tell her to do and of course it means that the races cannot be run quickly and efficiently as it involves her moving up and down the page, in and out of races, flicking between pages etc.

What should be a straightforward run/don’t run can turn out to require an expert from Bletchley Park (google it). Its not fair on the Steward, the other players and must also take up a considerable amount of the entering stable’s time to come up with these conditions.

So what I propose is this – and yes it is controversial and yes it will upset some players but when its conditions for the sake of conditions then I say its time to stop.

Lets make some new rules.

1. A horse can only be “moved” to one other race
2. Surface descriptions can only be “fast / hard/ soft/ muddy”
3. Surface preferences can only be “OK” or “No”
4. If a horse is entered twice using the automated entry system then its automatically scratched from both races
5. A horse cannot be scratched if another horse is named – it either will beat it or it wont

And to make sure these rules are kept to – a fine to the stable breaking the rules to the tune of the cost of the entry fee of their first nominated race. Sometimes the only way to get through to persistent offenders is to hit them where it hurts – ie money! For those with several millions it probably wouldn’t matter but it might make everyone think twice!

So c’mon on people – play fair and give up on the crazy conditions. If you are going to write in the conditions make sure they are easy to read and not an essay!