A new ranking system on the way...

It's been largely unknown (though there are a few of you out there that have heard rumors of this) that I've been working on a new ranking system for Photo Finish racers. Before I go into a little bit of a description of the system, I'll give you some background on what inspired the new system.

It basically started with some exchanged emails between a few other members of the PF community and myself. These correspondences concerned the issue of horses being run way below their level. Anyway, the discussions we had got me to thinking (which is usually trouble!) that it would be interesting to come up with a system based on the level competed at. I spent a lot of time thinking about what factors should go into the system, how races should be ranked, how to implement everything into a spreadshet, etc... Next came the actual setting up of the spreadsheet, which has been a chore and a half to get all the formulas correct and funtioning properly.

Sound interesting so far? I guess it's time now to let you in on just what does go into the system. Basically, I took every race on the calendar and assigned it a point value. The point value was based on what level race it was (G1, G2, G3, or G4 - ungraded) and what the purse was. The higher the grade/purse, the more the race is worth in the system. Points are awarded for finishing on the board (1st, 2nd, or 3rd) in any race. That was the easy part. It would have made for decent rankings just like that, but I wasn't satisfied. I also wanted to implement a race strength feature to the system.

Race strength, eh? Some of you may be wondering what the heck that is. Well, every race on the schedule will now be given a "strength value" based on what every runner in that particular race accomplishes all year. (This had been the "fun" part in the programming.) The beauty of this (to me anyway) is that if horse A wins a race, and then horses B and C from that same race go on to have nice years, horse A then benefits from having actually beaten quality opponents. For those familiar with certain computer rankings in football (American style), it's kind of like a strength of schedule or secondary points feature. You benefit by having those on your schedule do well.

Anyway, that's the basics of this new system. If you have any questions/comments about it, let me know. I also haven't yet decided how to put the final points together yet (the horses average and the race strength average), so if you'd like to help me with that decision, get in touch with me.

In reference to the last comment, it's not ready to give out rankings quite yet. I still want to make sure everything is computing properly, plus I still need to determine what to do with those final numbers. But, I can give out these interesting little tidbits for now...

• The top three so far for raw average (no race strength, just how they did and where) are Perfect Bell, A Bus, and Isca's Revenge. Not really anything to be surprised about there. Perfect Bell has a win in a $350,000 G1 and a second in a $1,600,000 G1. A Bus has a win in a $150,000 G2 (that hurts some), a second in a $250,000 G1 (worth more than the G2 win), and a win in a $1,500,000 G1 (that really helped), and Isca's Revenge has a win in a $500,000 G1 and a second in a $1,000,000 G1.
• The top three so far for raw race strength average are Perfect Bell, Pefect Goer (1 race so far in the Santa Anita Handicap), and a tie between Isca's Revenge and Pegasus Song ( not surprising since their only two races were against each other!)
• The toughest race so far is the G1 Caulfield Stakes. But that's being driven almost completely by the winner, Perfect Bell and the small field. I wouldn't expect this one to stay on top all year.
• Next is the G1 Santa Anita Oaks. Again, benefitting from the small field (only 2 starters). Plus, the winner is two-for-two in G1's so far. Looks like this one's ranking will be completely up to what the second place horse does all year.
• The third toughest is the G1 Santa Anita Handicap. Pegasus Song and Isca's Revenge are pretty much given's. It'll be up to the other four to keep this one's rating strong.
• Oh yeah, I'm also tracking PSR's with the sheet. The top three for average PSR so far are Miss Bust, Sverige, and Fashion Tower.