Kentucky Derby

It's hard to believe, but it's already Derby time. The field has been announced, so let's take a look at them...my way.

• Always Charming : Highest Power Ranking of the entrants and third lowest average PSR. Which one is the better indicator? I'm thinking it's the PSR. His Power Ranking right now is being driven by a win in the UAE Derby. The only problem with that is he pretty much beat a whole lot of nothing in that race. In his other dirt start, he was beaten pretty easily by horses who aren't even here. He has gone the Derby distance already (in the UAE Derby). But, if he runs another 2:02.22, he'll get beaten by 12+ lengths.
• Arctic Memories : Got to love those parents! Started on dirt for the first time this year in his last race. Like his father, he seems to be more of a turf horse. But, that certainly didn't stop dad from winning this one. I don't look for a repeat though. Faded last time out at 1 1/8 miles, and was beaten pretty easily by one horse that isn't here and one that is (Memcay's Laughter).
• First Impression : Two nice starts to begin the year (both 100+ PSR), and then a big jump up in competition with predictable results. Might have the highest "top-end" of any horse in the field, but I don't think he wants anything to do with 10 panels. He tried it his last time out, and he crawled home (:26.55) despite not pressing the pace. Hasn't beaten anyone in this field, finishing behind Hold That Train twice.
• Hold That Train : Started off the year with four wins, before a very respectable 4th in the Dubai World Cup. Handled the Derby distance fairly well, as he came from well off the pace. That could benefit him in this one if there is a speed duel up front. A disturbing trend in that his PSR's have been declining as the distances increase. That being said, I think this one is in the mix at the end.
• Machete : Could this be Revenge's revenge? He gets a chance to do what his sire didn't get a chance to...run in the Derby. This will be Act IV of Machete - Taco Bell, as the two seem to be sharing the same schedule. Has won two of the three matchups so far...impressively. Will probably be the favorite. Not sure this one wants 10 furlongs either, but he has the talent to overcome that.
• Memcay's Laughter : Has yet to win this year in three tries. His best effort was the last one, which was also his only dirt start. Doesn't have great speed, but should last the distance. Could definitely see him coming on towards the end...maybe to pick up a piece of it.
• Princely Status: Second lowest PSR average in the field. Coming off a second place finish in the Wood, which would normally be a good sign. Not this year. The Wood was not good...to be kind. Don't see this one being a factor.
• O How Funny : Similar to his stablemate, Always Charming, in having a lower PSR average and a high Power Ranking. But, that's where the similarities end. He was very impressive in winning the Santa Anita Derby last out. Second fastest time of the year (behind Machete) for the 3YO's at 1 1/8 miles. It remains to be seen if this one wants 10 furlongs, but if you're looking for an "outsider" to win...this might be your horse.
• Seattle Nash : Another head scratcher. Not exactly sure what this one's done to show he belongs in here. Best finish so far is a third in the Florida Derby. He's run a couple of 90 PSR's. Ummm...uhhh...he has good looking speed/stamina. Unfortunately, he's yet to do anything with it. Another one I don't see as being a factor.
• Scenic Sky : My head will end up raw after discussing this one. Well, he has that huge average race strength score. That was his only race so far. It was on turf. He was trounced. Absolutely no shot.
• Taco Bell : Machete's partner. They must like each other's company or something. Actually, he's a pretty good match for Machete. Lots of speed. Might not want 10 furlongs. Has the talent to possibly overcome it. Another one with the PSR's trending the wrong way as the distances increase. Did beat Machete once out of their three races. I do think Machete is just a bit better though. Look for him to be in the mix at the top of the stretch. We'll see if he can stay the distance though.
• The Color Of Money : He's a Silver Charm, so I like him immediately. Won the Gotham, beating another of the entrants (Ur Wildest Dreams). Finished 4th in the Arkansas, and the top three aren't here. Beaten by Seattle Nash and Princely Status in the Golden Gate...ugh. I'll be pulling for him because of his sire, but I'm not holding my breath.
• Thunder Heart : Another Thunder Arctic that doesn't particularly love the dirt. Only two starts this year, but the second was a very nice third in the Santa Anita. Ended up with the 4th best time for 3YO's at 1 1/8 miles. I think 10 furlongs will be right up his alley, and wouldn't be surprised at all to see him right there at the end.
• Ur Wildest Dreams : My scalp can't take this! Was impressive winner first time out this year. On turf. In a sprint. Stretched out to a mile next time. On turf. Didn't do as well. Third time out, tried a dirt mile. Did even worse. Absolutely wants no part of 10 furlongs. Might need a tow from the ambulance.
• So, if you're a chalk eating weasel, Machete might be your horse. If you like to look for the possible values/upsets, take a look at O How Funny, Memcay's Laughter, or Thunder Heart.