I'm sure there are some owners out there thinking "just what does it take to get a win around here?" Believe me, we've all pretty much been there at some point along the way. Most of us in the Photo Finish world would give just about ANYTHING to know the answer to that question. Well, I'm not going to charge you anything (or even ANYTHING) for the answer. Make sure you're sitting down before I reveal the secret though.
Are you sitting?
Ready for it?
The answer is a good horse. Yes, it's that simple. Thanks for reading, and check back next week for my next article.
You're still here? It's over. Go home.
Ok, sorry about that. I've been up for WAY too long, and saw Ferris Bueller's Day Off recently. Couldn't help myself. Anywho...
Ok, where was I? Oh yeah, the secret to winning a race.
It really does take a good horse though. I know, real earth shattering news there. Ok, a dash of good luck and a dose of good placement also help.
Probably still not what you were expecting, eh? Wondering if I'm drawing this out because I get paid by the word? (I wish!) Maybe, I'm just out of ideas. (Not really, just in a goofy mood.) Are the stat sheets broken? (Talk about a nightmare! Let me back them up again now!)
Actually, there is a point to this week's article...and some interesting numbers to boot! As it usually happens with me, I got the idea for this article from recent forum conversations about stats/PSR's. I got to thinking about just how do they correlate to winning. So, I went back through the past three PF years and figured out the average winning PSR for each level of racing.
In the 2007 season, these are the average PSR's for winners:
G1 - 102.84
G2 - 98.09
G3 - 96.97
Stk - 95.23
For the 2008 season, these are the average PSR's for winners:
G1 - 105.49
G2 - 101.66
G3 - 98.81
Stk - 95.52
And finally, these are the numbers for the current season:
G1 - 105.77
G2 - 102.09
G3 - 98.44
Stk - 95.66
Now, you can see why I said the secret is to have a good horse. It's going to take a 95 (on average) just to win a lowly ungraded race! What's really interesting though is the fact that the numbers have been pretty consistent, especially at the ungraded level. At the graded level, the numbers all rose (by fairly similar amounts) from 2007 to 2008. From 2008 to this year though, they are pretty consistent. If you asked around, you'd probably find quite a few people that noticed that the competition got stiffer in 2008, especially at the highest levels.
Now, I don't want to discourage anyone that doesn't have any horses that are averaging 95+ PSR's. Just this year, there have been 8 G1 winners that registered a 95 PSR or below (with the lowest being a 68). At the G2 level, there have been 25 with a low of 70. At the G3 level, there have been 39 with a low of 75. And finally at the ungraded level, there have been 51 with a low of 46. As you can see, the lower you go down the scale, the easier it is to win with a sub-standard PSR. Obviously, one would expect this to be the case. Especially if everyone was running their horses at the proper level. (I know, I know. That's a very BIG if. But, that's also a different topic for a different time.)
So, it sort of becomes obvious how good placement (and luck) figure into the equation. If you have a horse that doesn't seem likely to post at least a 95 PSR, sticking them in a G1 might not be the best move. Of course, you could get lucky and find a really soft spot where it won't take a nice PSR to win. It has happened 8 times this year (out of 54 G1's...a little under 15%), but I know that I wouldn't be all that comfortable with those sort of odds. Or you might have a horse that all of a sudden makes a 30 point improvement over his last race (Hey, Venezia did it!). Again, probably not the sort of thing you would want to make a habit of counting on.
So, there you have it. A good horse; a little luck; and location, location, location. Then sit back and watch the wins roll in. Or at least, you'll see your horses be competitive with chances to win here and there.
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Nice article DJ. Really enjoy reading your stuff.
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