Head to Head

A review of the most eagerly anticipated race this season!

Face to Face with Nancy Newmarket

Hi guys and I hope you enjoy the first Face to Face review!

NEWMARKET HANDICAP

7 Newmarket Handicap 3.30
1200m $500,000 2yo & up Group 1. Apprentices cannot claim.
TAB Sportsbet Fixed Odds


1 37111 RUN MISSY RUN, 10 Golden Acres S Wilman 59 4.00
2 25323 FUR WILL FLY, 4 South Beach Stables D Oliver 57 9.00
3 67122 FIREHEART, 2 Godolphin17 A Khan 56 10.00
4 12211 ATTACK AT DAWN, 1 Chiquita Lodge D Bujak 55.5 3.70f
5 11123 HEPATIC FLAP, 6 FDL Lodge F LaFleur 55.5 6.50
612115 FLAWLESS TOWER, 3 Olmo Dorato E Pozzoli 55 15.00
7 98374 KOSTYA, 7 Beaver Stables G Boss 54.5 13.00
8 s2210 HANDSOME BANE, 5 JD Kayll Race Club J Kayll 54 61.00
9 76668 MIRROR IMAGE, 8 Plugger Racing G Kayll 53 101.00
10 0s112 PERFECTION, 9 Hopeful Farm S Baster 52 5.50
Run Missy Run 1, Perfection 2, Attack At Dawn 3, Hepatic Flap 4

1 RUN MISSY RUN PF Rating 126 (10) 59
Golden Acres (Randwick) STEVEN WILMAN
Owner: Golden Acres Syndicate (Mgr: S Wilman)
4yo ch h Missy’s Bridle- Pharein (Phar Feather) TIMEFORM Race Rating 98
RED, PURPLE SASH, WHITE SLEEVES, PURPLE CAP
27 starts. 17-2-5 $5,607,250 Dist: 10-5:2:2 Track: 2-1:1:0
3-6 CAUL Sat 26Feb11 1400 VIC HEALTH-G1, Firm, S Wilman (3) 58, $2.20f:1-Bro’Town (NZ) 53:6L,1-20-59TR
7-13 NAD Sat 26Mar11 1200 SHAHEEN-G1, Fast, S Wilman (4) 57, $5.50ef: 1-Deux Francais 51: 4L, 1-07-54
1-7 NMKT Sat 15May11 1600 LOCKINGE-G1, Good, S Wilman (6) 57, $2.60f: 2-Princess Nina 55: 3.3L, 1-34-80
1-8 ASCT Sat 13Jun11 1600 QUEEN ANNE-G1, Good, S Wilman (6) 57, $2.20f: 2-Arctic Memories 57: 2.8L, 1-34-55
1-7 NMKT Sat 11July11 1200 JULY CUP-G1, Firm, S Wilman (6) 58.5, $2.50f: 2-Perfect Picture 57: 2.7L, 1-08-25TR
Champion sprinter who won the first two legs of the Silver Arrow Series last year before running second (behind Life Of Mars) in this race. Started off the season slowly before loving the European Climate with 3 straight wins over there. Beat Perfect Picture, Life On Mars and subsequent Australia Stakes winner Returnofthedancer last start. Should atone for last year’s defeat.

2 FUR WILL FLY PF Rating 114 (4) 57
South Beach Stables (Trinidad & Tobago) DAMIEN OLIVER
Owner: South Beach Syndicate (Mgr: C Ambrose)
4yo b h Aussie King Prawn- Feathers Flying (Royal Applause) TIMEFORM Race Rating 90
PINK, ROYAL BLUE SLEEVES
27 starts. 10-5-4 $2,131,500 Dist: 8-3:0:0 Track: 2-0:0:0
2-8 TKYO Sat 1Feb11 1400 NEGISHI-G3, Fast, Y Iwata (7) 57, $5.50: 1-Run Missy Run 57: 6L, 1-21-16TR
5-7 FLEM Sat 25Mar11 1200 SALINGER-G1, Firm, D Oliver (7) 55, $5.50: 1-Hepatic Flap 53.5: 7L, 1-07-63WR
3-6 LSP Sat 26Apr11 1600 TEXAS MILE-G3, Heavy, M Kinane (2) 57.5, $2.50: 1-Made You Look 57.5:6L,1-36-23TR
2-7 BELM Sat 28May11 1600 METRO HCP-G1, Fast, M Kinane (1) 57, $3.50f: 1-Octane 53.5: 0.8L, 1-33-75
3-8 HOLL Sat 19Jun11 1400 TRIPLEBC-G2, Fast, M Kinane (1) 56, $3.50: 1-Taco Bell 55.5: 1.5L, 1-20-78TR
Multiple Group 1 winner who ran in this last year for fifth (behind Life On Mars). Has been racing on the dirt lately with mixed results, and his last run on turf was 5th behind Hepatic Flap. I don’t think he particulary likes the Flemington straight and he isn’t in any better form than last year. Should still run a forward race.

3 FIREHEART PF Rating 110 (2) 56
Godolphin17 (Moonee Valley) AADIL KHAN
Owner: Godolphin Syndicate (Mgr: S Bin Suroor)
4yo b h Forest Dancer- Sparks Fly (Lite The Fuse) TIMEFORM Race Rating 95
BLACK, RED STARS, SLEEVES AND CAP
19 starts. 3-3-2 $498,500 Dist: 9-2:2:1 Track: 1-1:0:0
6-8 CAUL Sat 26Feb11 1800 UNDERWOOD-G1, Firm, B Cornish (2) 56, $7.00: 1-Camena’s Thunder 56: 11.6L, 1-47-85
7-8 CAUL Sat 4Mar11 1600 TOORAK-G1, Firm, B Cornish (4) 54, $4.50: 1-Ton Of Luck (USA) 56: 19.5L, 1-36-67
1-6 FLEM Sat 1Apr11 1200 AGE CLASSIC-G1, Firm, B Cornish (1) 58.5, $3.00: 2-Yeager 58.5: 2.9L, 1-08-54
2-13 DOOM Sat 6May11 1200 AWA STAKES-LR, Firm, B Cornish (8) 58.5, $3.20f: 1-Drunken Smart 54: 0.6L, 1-09-15
2-4 MV Sat 20Jun11 1200 AUST STAKES-G1, Good, B Cornish (1) 58.5, $2.50: 1-Returnofthedancer 58.5: 0.1L, 1-09-05Group 1 winner with a change of stables for $800,000 (formerly trained by Victorian Racing Stables). 3 starts back at this track and distance he won with relative ease from the highly rated Yeager. Next start he found the 5 kilo weight difference too much when beaten behind the Group 2 winner Drunken Smart in Queensland before a close second in the Australia Stakes. Was beaten by a Moonee Valley specialist then and is a Group 1 winner at the distance and goes well at the track. Hard to catch.

4 ATTACK AT DAWN PF Rating 123 (1) 55.5
Chiquita Lodge (Rosehill) DON BUJAK
Owner: Chiquita Lodge (Mgr: D Bujak)
6yo ch m Maythehorsebewithu- Dancethruthedawn (Mr ProspectorTIMEFORM Race Rating 94
WHITE AND PINK QUARTERS, SLEEVES AND CAP
55 starts. 31-12-4 $6,297,750 Dist: 23-12:4:1 Track: 7-4:1:0
1-10 RHIL Sat 29Jan11 1100 CONCORDE-G3, Firm, D Bujak (5) 55.5, $3.00ef: 2-Handsome Politics 51: 2.1L, 1-02-29
2-13 NAD Sat 26Mar11 1200 SHAHEEN-G1, Fast, D Bujak (1) 54, $6.00: 1-Deux Francais 51.5: 2.1L, 1-07-54
2-10 GCST Sat 3Jun11 1400 MM CUP, Firm, D Bujak (9) 54.5, $4.00: 2-Rocket 52: 0.1L, 1-21-80
1-11 FLEM Sat 1Jul11 1000 LIGHTNING-G1, Hard, D Bujak (8) 56, $3.50f: 2-Hepatic Flap 55.5: 0.4L, 55-94
1-9 CAUL Sat 14Jul11 1100 OAKLEIGH-G1, Firm, D Bujak (3) 56, $4.50: 2-Perfection 57.5: 0.1L, 1-02-19Champion sprinter who ran fourth in this (behind Handsome Problem) in 2009. Has won the Lightning Stakes and Oakleigh Plate in 2009 and 2011. Talk around the stables is that she doesn’t run a full 1200m out against this sort of class but she has beaten her main dangers well at her last 2 starts bar Run Missy Run should be hard to beat.

5 HEPATIC FLAP PF Rating 120 (6) 55.5
FDL Lodge (Randwick) FINLAY LEFLEUR
Owner: FDL Syndicate (Mgr: F DeFleur)
3yo ch c Thief Of Hearts- Isca (Rory’s Jester) TIMEFORM Race Rating 92
BLACK, RED AND WHITE HOOPED SLEEVES, QUARTERED CAP
16 starts. 8-3-3 $2,480,000 Dist: 3-2:0:0 Track: 3-2:1:0
1-7 FLEM Sat 3Mar11 1200 SALINGER-G1, Firm, F LeFleur (3) 53.5, $3.50: 2-Private Choice 52: 1.5L, 1-07-63WR
1-7 ASCT Sat 6May11 1600 RAILWAY-G1, Firm, F LeFleur (4) 53, $3.20: 2-Ton Of Luck 55.5: 1.1L, 1-34
1-9 JAPAN Sat 1Jun11 1600 YASUDA-G1, Firm, F LeFleur (2) 52, $6.00: 2-Color Of Fame 57: 2L. 1-32-77TR
2-11 FLEM Sat 1Jul11 1000 LIGHTNING-G1, Hard, F LeFleur (11) 55.5, $5.50: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 0.4L, 55-94
3-9 CAUL Sat 14Jul11 1100 OAKLEIGH-G1, Firm, F LeFleur (5) 55.5 $5.50: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 1.5L, 1-02-19 Star miler who has just failed in his two Silver Arrow runs behind Attack At Dawn. His last run at the track/distance was a very good win in the Salinger. Handles a mile and that is very handy for today as it is usually a big test. Should run well.

6 FLAWLESS TOWER PF Rating 118 (3) 55
Olmo Dorato (Cancanelle) ETTORE POZZOLI
Owner: Olmo Dorato Syndicate (Mgr: E Pozzoli)
4yo ch m Troll Tower- Flawlessly (Affirmed) TIMEFORM Race Rating 85
PINK, NAVY DIAGONAL STRIPES, WHITE SLEEVES AND CAP, PINK POM POM
35 starts. 21-3-0 $2,609,750 Dist: 21-13:2:0 Track: 6-3:0:0
1-5 SANTA Sat 9Apr11 1300 SIMEON-G3, Firm, E Pozzoli (5) 55.5, $1.60f: 2-Mystical Island 51.5: 2.3L, 1-14-45
2-8 CANN Sat 29Apr11 1200 CHIESA-G3, Good, E Pozzoli (3) 56, $1.80f: 1-Xanthomata 50.5: 1.5L, 1-09-71TR
1-6 FLEM Sat 26May11 1200 STANDISH-G3, Hard, E Pozzoli (3) 56, $1.80f: 2-Lord Kayman 50: 2.2L, 1-08-11
1-3 MORP Sat 24Jun11 1200 SANGSTER-G1, Firm, E Pozzoli (2) 56, $1.10f: 2-Vesuvius 56: 4.4L, 1-09-44
5-9 CAUL Sat 14Jul11 1100 OAKLEIGH-G1, Firm, E Pozzoli (4) 56, $4.00f: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 10.1L, 1-02-19 Hong Kong Sprint winner of last year who ran seventh last year (behind Life Of Mars). Has been in top shape this campaign but has been disappointing when she’s stood up to the big league, especially last start when backed into favouritism from loyal punters. Just think the she doesn’t run out a fast 1200m pace in this sort of class but she’ll run her usual honest race.

7 KOSTYA PF Rating 108 (7) 54.5
Beaver Stables (Flemington) GLEN BOSS
Owner: Beaver Syndicate (Mgr: B Ruth)
3yo gr c Encosta De Lago- Bollinger (Dehere) TIMEFORM Race Rating 90
NAVY BLUE, GOLD LIGHTNING BOLT, GOLD AND WHITE ARMBANDS, GOLD CAP
15 starts. 7-2-1 $1,821,000 Dist: 8-3:2:1 Track: 3-1:0:0
9-13 NAD Sat 26Mar11 1200 SHAHEEN-G1, Fast, F Dettori (7) 52, $9.00: 1-Deux Francais 51: 5.6L, 1-07-54
8-10 GCST Sat 3Jun11 1400 MM CUP, Firm, G Colless (4) 51.5, $8.00: 1-Rocket 52: 10.5L, 1-21-80
3-9 ASCT Sat 17Jun11 1200 GOLD JUBILEE-G1, Good, J Murtagh (5) 54.5, $3.50f: 1-Perfect Picture 58.5: 3.5L, 1-09
7-11 FLEM Sat 1Jul11 1000 LIGHTNING-G1, Hard, G Boss (7) 55.5, $5.50: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 5.9L, 55-94
4-9 CAUL Sat 14Jul11 1100 OAKLEIGH-G1, Firm, G Boss (1) 55.5, $5.50: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 7.1L, 1-02-19 Blue Diamond winner of last season who has always been well fancied this year but has been disappointing. Good run in the Golden Jubilee before being close up in the Lightning and the Oakleigh. Backs up well and is very consistent. Will run another honest race and loves the straight track.

8 HANDSOME BANE PF Rating 103 (5) 54
JD Kayll Race Club (Moonee Valley) JOSH KAYLL
Owner: J D Kayll, S Polizzi, J Layley, A P Mayne & B Ung
5yo br h Handsome Man- Urbane (Citidancer) TIMEFORM Race Rating 77
BLACK, YELLOW MALTESE CROSS, YELLOW AND RED STRIPED SLEEVES, QUARTERED CAP
18 starts. 3-4-5 $302,250 Dist: 3-0:1:2 Track: 1-1:0:0
2-13 EFM Sat 5Dec10 1400 ASCOT-LR, Yielding, D Dunn (5) 53.5, $5.50: 1-Hepatic Flap 52: 5.8L, 1-22-93
2-9 SANH Sat 22Jan11 1400 LISTON-G2, Firm, D Dunn (7) 57.5, $10.00: 1-Bro’Town 55: 1.1L, 1-22-03
2-6 NEWM Sat 19May11 1800 PRIX D’ISHIPAN- G1, Yielding, J Kayll (4) 54, $5.00: 1-Arctic Memories 57: 5.9L, 1-48-73
1-7 MORP Sat 10Jun11 1100 IRWIN-G3, Hard, J Kayll (6) 58.5, $4.00ef: 2-Rain Man 58.5: 1.8L, 1-03-18
7-7 CAUL Sat 7Jul11 1400 C.F.ORR-G1, Good, J Kayll (7) 57, $7.00: 1-Camena’s Thunder 57: 11.5L, 1-21-98Well bred colt who really disappointed last start when well fancied in the Orr Stakes. Expected to run better this time and the blinkers are on to sharpen him up so he can contend with these. At best a good 3rd or 4th.

9 MIRROR IMAGE PF Rating 100.5 (8) 53
Plugger Racing (Moonee Valley) GRANT KAYLL
Owner: G J Kayll, I Spillard, D C Kayll, A E Kayll.
5yo bl h Sunday Silence- Riboletta (Roi Normand) TIMEFORM Race Rating 80
CERISE, ROYAL BLUE SASH AND STRIPED SLEEVES, WHITE CAP
35 starts. 2-2-5 $257,250 Dist: 6-0:0:1 Track: 3-0:0:1
7-8 CAUL Sat 11Mar11 1400 ELLIS STAKES-G3, Good, D Oliver (4) 50.5, $8.00: 1-Tsunami 53: 10.1L, 1-22-16
6-9 FLEM Sat 1Apr11 1100 HILTON-LR, Good, G Kayll (5) 56, $7.00: 1-Definite 56: 6.8L, 1-02-87
6-13 CDWNS Sat 29Apr11 1000 AEGON-LR, Firm, G Kayll (5) 42, $13.00: 1-Yeager 54: 6.6L, 56-43
6-13 CAUL Sat 3Jun11 1100 RUBITON-G3, Yielding, G Kayll (8) 58.5, $10.00: 1-Mr. Gwalia 54.5: 5L, 1-04-46
8-11 FLEM Sat 1Jul11 1000 LIGHTNING-G1, Hard, G Kayll (10) 58.5, $31.00: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 11.8L, 55-94Consistent handicapper sprinter who ran a pretty decent race in the Lightning Stakes before Attack At Dawn. Ran well at WFA and Handicap class before that. Shouldn’t get much weight and gets a strong 1400m so will handle the pace. Roughy.

10 PERFECTION PF Rating 105 (9) 52
Hopeful Farms (Flemington) STEVEN BASTER
Owner: Handsome Man Stud Syndicate
4yo b h Handsome Man- Sister Act (Saint Ballado) TIMEFORM Race Rating 100
ROYAL BLUE, GREEN SLEEVES, LOGO, GOLD CUP AND POM POM
4 starts. 2-1-0 $255,000 Dist: no starts Track: no starts
9-9 RHIL Sat 8Aug10 1100 STAR KINGDOM-G3, Hard, D Nikolic (4) 54.5, $6.00: 1-Blast Of Storm 56: 9.8L, 1-02-71
1-7 EMLD Sat 26May11 1300 FSN HCP-LR, Fast, S Baster (7) 57, EVENS: 2-Mardi Gras 57: 7.5L, 1-14-53WR
1-5 CDWNS Sat 19Jun11 1600 FIRECRACKER-G3, Good, S Baster (4) 54.5, $2.80f: 2-Island Refugee 52: 3L, 1-34-01
2-9 CAUL Sat 14Jul11 1100 OAKLEIGH-G1, Firm, S Baster (7) 57.5, $10.00: 1-Attack At Dawn 56: 0.1L, 1-02-19Well bred colt who has really came around in leaps and bounds this campaign. Made the transition to Group 1 level last start with a magnificent 2nd to Attack At Dawn. Should go very close.

Tips:

Run Missy Run

Perfection

Attack At Dawn

Hepatic Flap

Josh Kayll

HE'S BACK

He's back. The champion sprinter from Golden Acres has bounced back from a recent losing streak to win the Lockinge Stakes. Run Missy Run has been slightly disappointing of late, with a 6 length third in the G 1 Dubai Racing Club Cup over 1400 at Caulfield behind Bro'Town and Hepatic Flap, and a 7th in the Dubai Golden Shaheen last start behind Deux Francais. Now these runs would have been magnificent for a horse of just G1 quality, but Run Missy Run is the top shelf horse around.



Now he was entered in the Lockinge Stakes, one of Europe's top mile races, which has a rich quality over the years. The only Australian runners to run before Run Missy Run, were the half-brothers Elvstroem and Haradasun, who both went on to race with great distinction in England, especially Haradasun who won the Queen Anne Stakes.

Up against Run Missy Run was the Breeders Cup Mile winner Mr Purler, the evergreen sprinter All For Dansilver, the Group 1 winning mare Devil His Brew & the improvers Maximize, Island Refugee & Princess Nina.

Run Missy Run led the whole race and won running way by 3 lengths from Princess Nina, with Island Refugee and All For Dansilver filling the other places in the money.

Punters had kept him at a safe price for Lightning Stakes before that win at $21.00 but he has been backed in to a short price of $7.50 behind the FDL Lodge pair Life On Mars and Hepatic Flap. The challenge is on for Run Missy Run is to take on the champion 3yo filly Life On Mars, of whom he has a losing record against so far. The factors were against him on those two occasions, and I seriously think that Run Missy Run will make her sweat if he runs. Come on Steve, run him!

Anyway I am the trainer of All For Dansilver and I am happy with his run, and will push on in the mile Group 1 events before going for a record breaking third straight Goodwood Handicap.

Here is the pre-race odds for the Lightning Stakes in a month or two game time.

LIGHTNING STAKES (1000m)
$3.50 Life On Mars
$6.00 Hepatic Flap
$7.50 Run Missy Run
$10.00 Deux Francais, Attack At Dawn, Flawless Tower
$13.00 Arctic Silver, Returnofthedancer
$15.00 Bro'Town, Fireheart
$21.00 Rocket, Private Choice
$26.00 People's Champ, Kostya, Handsome Politics
$41.00 All For Dansilver, Maroon Lodge
$81.00 Bellfast Lad, Skasey, Drunken Smart

It should be a keenly contested race and is the start of the Silver Arrow Sprint Series. All us Aussies went to clean-sweep the series. Will Life On Mars join Fin's other mares in All For Camena and Blushing Allanna in winning the triple crown? Will Run Missy Run clean-sweep to atone for last year? Or will the tough mare Attack At Dawn or the stallion Returnofthedancer reclaim there crown of being the Silver Arrow Champ again? Its anybody's guess.

Josh Kayll

Aussies deny the British yet again

Amanda O'Brien of Bally Doyle has been a magnificent sport of in all the years on PF but she must have been a tad annoyed that she just failed to win a Group 1 for the first time in a while, with Ordinary World in the Selene Stakes at Woodbine. Amanda, (who is well loved on the game) has commented that she is feeling what she must do to win a Group 1. My answer; Run away from the superstable in FDL Lodge and his gigantic colt Heat Seeker, and you have got a greater chance of winning a Group 1.

Now lets get back to the Selene Stakes. There was a small but select field of 3 fillies contesting the race. There was Oprah from FDL Lodge, Ballata Selvaggia from Penfold Stud and of course Ordinary World. Oprah was the $1.35 favourite on her great form in winning her last two starts, and her fourth in the (G 1) Caulfield Guineas behind Kazzcay and Gournay at Caulfield three starts back. Second elect was Ordinary World at $2.40, who had great form with a close G 1 placing behind Reward in the Santa Anita Oaks two starts back. The outsider of the field was Ballata Selvaggia, who had regal breeding, being by the Europe champ Montjeu and the Cox Plate winner Sunline. The positions during the race was the finishing positions, and it was Oprah that led, with Ordinary World 5 lengths behind her with Ballata Selvaggia last. In the last 200m Ordinary World started to take serious ground off the FDL Lodge trained filly but couldn't overwhelm her, creating a popular win with several headlines in Australia.

It is the first win in America by an Australia since Phar Lap all those years before, and the first runner since the David Hayes trained Anamato ran third in the American Oaks behind Panty Raid and Valpenny in 2007. Amanda remained philosophical after the race and was asked by an Australian reporter by the name of the Joshua Kayll how she felt losing to an Aussie yet again and will she ever beat them again. "I have won a Melbourne Cup with Dancing Delaware before you know" she quipped, and that left Kayll without a decent comeback. Her comment about Ordinary World's run was "whilst I was disappointed to lose by such a short margin it has proven that she can run at the level and will be back for more soon". All of us hope she does come back and wins a well-deserved Group 1 for the trainer. Just don't invite the Aussies!

Kentucky Derby Review

Welcome to Churchill Downs, home of the Twin Spires and more specifically this week, the Kentucky Derbee. OK I will probably mispronounce the name dozens of times in this recap but I hope you will all forgive me!

In a break from the norm, this review will focus entirely on the Run for the Roses where we have a field of 16 horses lining up to take home a purse in excess of half a million dollars. And its not just the money that they will walk (well hopefully run!) away with – it’s the double whammy of the prestige of winning the first leg of the triple crown and, for the colts in the race, to be referred to as a derby winning sire. This year there is a filly running, and to be honest it isn’t much of a surprise to see her lining up – I of course refer to Godolphins champion filly, Road to Zion.

There was a large contingent from overseas, with Columbia represented by Rainbow’s pair of Tundra Sky and Blessed, several runners from Australia including two from Underworld Stables these being Thyroid Storm and Out of Time, whilst the G1 producing machine that is FDL Lodge entered his latest purchase, Cold Come Back. Europe was also in the mix with the English stable of Woodbury entering his lightly raced colt Sligeach and the Spanish runner Golfo Blanco being sent by Yeguada Lore Toki. Canada aren’t to be left out of the “overseas” runners with Dikto from the Canadian stables of Iron Racing and Eureka sending out Find A Way.

The American representatives were headed by Big N’Tough from Rivendell stables who was heads above the rest of the field in terms of form and G1 wins. State Tower was no forlorn hope from the Godforwand Stables and Silver Sword was running for Snowbank Farms.

The crowd thoroughly enjoyed the spectacle of the runners being lead out from the pre saddling enclosure down the home stretch to enter the saddling boxes. This test is part of a champion – how many of them would take the preambles calmly and in their strides and how many would boil over and run their races before hitting the track. One that really stood out was Golfo Blanco who looked stunning and stood out being the only white runner – his groom must have spent hours getting the shine on this colt and had even brushed the Spanish flag into the hindquarters. A lot of eyes strained to see how the filly was going to cope and she coped perfectly – behaving like the true champion she is. He owner was at her head reassuring her that everything was all right and yes everyone was there just to see her. On the other hand, Out of Time looked decidedly out of sorts, sweating badly and jig jogging around his handlers, causing several spectators to comment about the amount of sweat already forming between his hind legs, never a good sign. The rest of the field appeared to be taking the walk well with the odd flying kick just to let people know that they were ready to race. It had already been announced that Sligeach would not be ponied to the start, his trainer sticking with European tradition and letting the horse make his own way – a good idea as he had shown winning form last time out without being accompanied to the gate.

In the saddling enclosure the tension was palpable and as the countdown started to post time, the crowd around the parade ring was like the sea rippling with everyone trying to catch a glimpse of their pick before rushing back to place a bet. With a field of 16 it took a little longer than normal for the runners to be saddled up and jockeys jocked up. The silks glistened in the sun and provided a carnival feel to the parade with the national colours of Trinidad & Tobago carried by Road to Zion and the maple leaf of Canada in the white silks of Iron Racing on board Dikto. Not to be outdone, the Columbian flag was doubly on display with a distinguishing white sash allowing spectators to differentiate between Blessed and Tundra Sky, the former being considered the outsider of the pair so wearing the sash.

As one, the crowd stood and sang My Old Kentucky Home, with hats hastily snatched off their heads in due deference to the occasion. The parade past the stands without an incident and made their way down to the gate. Sligeach didn’t break out of post position despite his lack of a pony whilst Road to Zion was allowed to bring up the field last as the only female runner.

With the runners approaching the gate there was suddenly an announcement from the stewards – Out of Time was declared a non runner due to the ground. The jockey looked devastated as he was led off the track but the trainer had felt that the horse hadn’t been striding out comfortably on the way to the start and believed that it was in the horses best interest if he was withdrawn.

The starting bells rang and the horses sprang as one and down the stretch they came for the first time. Through the opening furlong it was State Tower out in front, followed by Key Largo, Red Dawn and Blessed. Big N’Tough was sitting handily just slightly up from mid field with Sligeach in his sights whilst Road to Zion had a handy position tracking the main contenders. The back marker at this stage was Cold Come Back.

As the field approached the first of the two turns of this amazing race State Tower was tackled by Big N’Tough was laying down his challenge early and it seemed that the jockey was saying come and get me if you can and was going to try to repel all comers. Behind the field was relatively unchanged in position and all seemed to be travelling within themselves. Coming around the bend and into the back straight Big N’ Tough was determined to be in the lead whilst State Tower was equally determined not to let him pass. Thyroid Storm had the 3^rd position hugging the rail with Red Dawn and Sligeach just behind him. Cold Come Back had improved several places and now sat mid field and another making an eye-catching move was Dikto. Road to Zion had slipped back and only had two behind her at this stage.

Halfway down the back it looked like the Rivendell horse was not having things his own way and was involved in a battle for the lead and people were starting to murmur if this early duel was going to leave anything in the tank for later. Sligeach was now breaking from the pack and moving to the outside in a closing third and Dikto was slipstreaming the Woodbury colt but still all horses looked to have a chance with just over half the race left.

With only half a mile to go Sligeach was now eye to eye with Big N Tough, State Tower started to drop back and still Dikto loomed ominously behind. The field was beginning to stretch out with 14 lengths covering the runners which was still completed by Road to Zion and Find A Way.

Coming out of the home turn Big N’Tough’s jockey started to get tough with the colt and was urging him to start picking up but right next to him Sligeach’s jockey was sitting quieter than a church mouse at Sunday service. From mid division Fireball was making strides and this colt was definitely looking a danger if he could manage to slingshot himself around the bend and the leaders.

Quarter of a mile left and suddenly Big N’ Tough cracked he just couldn’t sustain the pace he had set with State Tower nearly a mile previously and still Sligeach’s jockey didn’t move, except a sly glance under his arm to see where the danger was coming from and he could see Dikto being moved from three wide back down to the rail to try to get past a tiring Big N’Tough and Fireball was still making giant strides towards the leaders and then from the middle of the pack Thyroid Storm was getting into top gear and seemed to be a horse who would definitely be there at the finish – the crowd started to rise in order not to miss a moment of this thriller down the last furlong. Would the trophy stay at home or would it be shipped abroad?

200 yards left and amazingly Big N’ Tough was refusing to give in – the jockey was giving it his all to the horse and gamely oh so gamely the colt was responding – could he get back up and deny Europe a win, could Sligeach repel the gallant challenger, had Dikto and Fireballs jockeys time their challenges to perfection or would Thyroid Storm pass all of them and take the race on the line?

UNDER THE WIRE they passed – and yes Sligeach had won! He had held on and found the reserves that only champions have and took the Kentucky Derby by just over a length to the gallant Dikto with Big N’ Tough running the race of his life to keep on for 3^rd. Thyroid Storm took 4^th. All four horses were separated by less then 2 lengths at the line.

What an amazing race – a horse only having its third lifetime start winning the Kentucky Derby and taking the prize back to Old Blighty and the spiritual home of all Derbies. His owner Martin Pennington was the first down to the track to congratulate his homebred star and was heard to exclaim that “nothing could beat this feeling, not even Wigan winning the Premiership!”

The full finishing order was:

13 Sligeach 3yo Colt Woodbury Stables

5 Ditko 3yo Colt Iron Racing

14 Big N' Tough 3yo Colt Rivendell Stable

3 Thyroid Storm 3yo Colt Underworld Stables

9 Fireball 3yo Colt Royal Flush Farms

1 Blessed 3yo Colt Rainbow

4 Tundra Sky 3yo Colt Rainbow

8 Find A Way 3yo Colt Eureka Racing Stables

15 Silver Sword 3yo Colt Snowbank Farm

12 Road to Zion 3yo Filly Godolphin17

7 Key Largo 3yo Colt Alydar Stables

10 Golfo Blanco 3yo Colt Yeguada Lore Toki

6 Cold Come Back 3yo Colt FDL Lodge

2 State Tower 3yo Colt Goforwand Stables

11 Red Dawn 3yo Colt Alydar Stables

I hope you enjoyed this review as much as I did reviewing it! Speak to you all soon – when I recover from the after race party with Martin!

2011 PF Kentucky Derby Preview Special

Reposted: By Willis

-----------------------
Welcome to the 2011 PF Kentucky Derby Preview Special, I’m your host, Willis and you can call me Willis (and if one person even so much as thinks of doing the “What you talking bout Willis” joke, I will go Tanya Harding on your horse). The first race in the coveted Triple Crown will come you live Sunday, September 7th from the historic Churchill Downs in Kentucky and for a short history lesson on the track, I recommend Google.



The 10th running (give or take depending on when the archives feel like working) of this race drew a 16 horse field. We got big names, small names, no names, and who dat? All lined up to enter the starting gate for a run at immortality. 4 of the top 10 3 year old money earners have entered, Find A Way, Tundra Sky, Big N’Tough and last but certainly not least, our very own Winning Colors, as Road to Zion will be the lone filly to take on the boys. Some notable absences include A View To A Kill, the Wood Memorial winner owned by Otsego farms and Heat Seeker, owned by FDL Lodge and winner of the Santa Anita Derby.



But, with that said, we still have a deep and talented field for which I will get you up to speed on very shortly, but first, we got to pay some bills and go to commercial. Someone has to sponsor this gibberish!



(INSERT Advertisement Using Horses Here. you know, some random company who wouldn’t know a starting gate from a farm tractor to sell their product during a race they think is taking place in Alabama. Whoohoo they like horse racing, so you should to. Now go buy that Viagra because it boosts horsepower…….get it…..horsepower)



Well that was umm, yeah, now the fun part, to see how many hurt feelings I can cause throughout this Preview. (The over/under is 10) And don’t ask me post position, trust me if I knew, you’d know.



Top Contenders



Big N' Tough - $1,428,000 - 9-6-0-0

Rivendell Stable - Big N' Rich x Sovereign Belle



This horse is certainly one of the favorites to capture the Run for the Roses, and why not. A winner of his last 6 races since maturing late as a 2 yr old, this winner of the 2010 BC Juvenile came into his 3yr old campaign with the hype train honking and didn’t fail to deliver. Impressive wins in the G3 Risen Star and G1 Florida Derby, there is a lot to like about this Smarty Jones size horse, but I question his ability to make the 10 furlong distance. His breeding makes him suspect, as both his parents were equally incapable beyond 9 furlongs. He has a win at the Derby distance of 10F, but that was as a 2yr old and on turf, and with a very close win in the Florida Derby at 9F, can he hold his track record setting speed for an additional furlong which can be an eternity.



Find A Way - $1,210,000 6-2-0-2

Eureka Racing Stables - Wheelaway x Awesome Find



This homebred colt may lack the impressive parental lineage as Big N’Tough, he certainly makes up for in talent. An immature 2yr old, he began his 3yr old campaign with a nice victory in the G2 San Rafael Stakes, and then he took on older horses for the prestigious G1 Dubai Wold Cup, where he finished a close 3rd at the 10F distance, proving he is quite capable of lasting down the front stretch for home. His last race saw him set the track record in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass. The lone question will be his endurance, after running what some would consider a tough campaign, coming off back to back races on 3 weeks rest and entering the Derby on another 3 week layoff after running a massive race in the Toyota Blue Grass, will he have any gas left in the tank, and at $4 a gallon, I wouldn’t blame him if he came up empty.



Road to Zion - F – $2,626,000 13-6-3-0

Godolphin17 - Big N' Rich x Giant's K D



The only filly entered in the and half sister to race favorite Big N’ Tough, is a winner of her last 4, and especially noticeable is her decent 2yr old runs over the Churchill Downs dirt, finishing 2nd in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies & winning G3 Golden Rod Stakes, so she has experience on the surface, which could be a determining factor. Her 3yr old season started out on the turf, winning the G3 Queen Cup in Tokyo and G1 Epsom Handicap at Royal Randwick against the boys. Her final prep race was G2 United Arab Emirates Derby at 10F over the dirt where she fended off the boys again and punched her ticket to the Derby. The well traveled filly has conquered the boys on both surfaces, so she will not be intimidated, and unlike her half brother, she has the ability to make the distance and with a solid 5 week layoff, she should well rested, but, she will need a far better PSR than the 68 she posted in the Emirates Derby to fend off this field, otherwise, it’s a Rags to Riches story and a filly in the Derby.



State Tower - $270,000 10-3-0-0

Goforwand Stables - Troll Tower x Fashion Statement



Don’t be fooled by the low earnings or the unimpressive record, this horse has pedigree on his side. Son of Troll Tower who sired last years Derby winner New Tower, who was also owned by Goforwand, the most successful stable in Derby history with two winners, the other being the filly Pegasus Song, its hard to deny the connections, both the owner and the horse, have history on their side. The maturing 3yr old has one all of his 3 starts this season, the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes, G3 El Camino Real Derby & Tampa Bay Derby. Not as impressive as the other top contenders, he makes this section based on family ancestry, but the negatives are all to glaring, primarily when it concerns is mother. The unraced mare, has birthed three horses from Troll Tower, none of them being performing exceptionally well on the track. But, if his fathers blood runs deeper, he is certainly a dark horse contender worth throwing some money at.





Maybe Contenders



Blessed – $350,000 7-2-2-0

Rainbow – Songandaprayer x Affluent



Owned by the 2008 Derby winning stable who took the win that year with filly Perfect Bell returns with a decent challenger for this year’s edition. The son of the expensive dud Songandaprayer, who hit the scenes fast and faded faster, does not it would seem have pedigree on his side. I’d give stats for his mother, but Google doesn’t seem to recognize her. The easily likeable 2yr old campaign, he appears to be peaking with wins in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes (like his pops) and G3 Flamingo Stakes. Though his showing in the G1 Florida Derby was a less than stellar showing, it wasn’t as bad as the 5th place finish would indicate either. He finished 9 lengths back of the winner Big N’Tough, but that could be chalked up to a quick turnaround from the Fountain Of Youth. Such questions of rest time will not be an excuse for this race however, only the massive weight of not flaming out like his sire.



Ditko – $671,250 10-2-5-2

Iron Racing - Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong



So, maybe he isn’t even a “Maybe” contender, but I like his consistency, finishing out of the money, nay, out of the top 3 in just one career start. He ended his 2yr old season with a win in the G1 Hollywood Futurity and has shown a propensity to hang around in his 3 starts this season. A 4 length loss to Big N’Tough in the Golden Gate Derby to finish 2nd, 3rd in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over the turf that saw Heat Seeker crush the competition and a really close 3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby again losing to Heat Seeker. He has raced the top horses and refused to fold, so he has the heart and courage to make things interesting. If the top horses don’t have their best days, Ditko could pull off the mild upset and finally have his breakthrough win. Or he could just show that he will never be nothing more than a nice horse to throw into a trifecta.



Sligeach – $479,125 6-3-1-1

Woodbury Stables - Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee



Sired by Dawn Patrol, who has produced 8 million dollar winning horses, most notably, Deux Francais, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen, but the classic distance pedigree comes from the pink side of the bracket in Fleet Renee, who from the stats I could find, won 2 G1 races, Mother Goose Stakes & Kentucky Oaks, so Sligeach (which I think is a city/town/place in Ireland) can go the distance. His most recent starts, the end of his 2yr old season, he won the G2 Norfolk Stakes and was a winner in his only start this season, the G3 Louisiana Derby, unfortunately, not one other Derby entrant was even in that race so it is hard to draw a comparison. My only concern is his stamina to go 10F, I must say, his pedigree, notably on his father’s side, suggests turf/sprinter and just one start as a 3yr old is always sketchy, he might’ve been a bit overprotected.



Tundra Sky - $978,000 6-3-2-0

Rainbow - Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder



The 2nd entrant from Rainbow stables, one of 3 stables to enter more than one horse, might actually be better than stable mate Blessed, and probably deserves to be higher, but it makes it more interesting for him down here. He could have the best sire in Thunder Arctic, 2X HOTY and 2X BC Classic winner and Derby/Belmont winner of any horse entered in the race. He has pedigree for days to discuss, a shaky 2yr old season, turned into an eye opening 3yr old season thus far. Winner of the G1 Donn Handicap, that saw him crush older horses and defeat horses like Regal Son, New Tower & Arctic Memories he followed that up with a very impressive 2nd in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby, where he ran a below average race and still finished ahead of Big N’Tough and close to race winner Road to Zion. He is probably the best chance Rainbow stable has of recapturing the glory of the 2008 Derby.





Rocky Balboa Contenders



Fireball – $224,000 7-2-1-0

Flush Farms - Medaglia D'oro x Henry's Slew



Fireball is the epitome of the Rocky Balboa contenders, son of well respected sire Medaglia D’oro, who won graded stakes at 3, 4 and 5, and finished 2nd countless times in other big graded stakes races, Fireball has the pedigree to get the job done or to disappoint horrendously. Noting the abysmal record of fouls out of Henry’s Slew, who dampens the excitement produced from mentioning the history of his father, he has his own record to stand on. A non-factor as a 2yr old, he struggled in his first start this season, but came back to win the Dulcify Quality Handicap and G2 Aami Vase, both on turf. He made his dirt debut at 3 in the G2 Arkansas Derby, finishing a decent 2nd to fellow Balboa contender Thyroid Storm. With minimal dirt experience, a weak bloodline on his mother’s side, and a history of disappointment from his fathers, I look for him to be their early, but eventually fade into the final turn.



Silver Sword – $142,500 5-1-1-1

Snowbank Farm – Dansilver x Demoness



This horse by all measure has failed to live up to his pedigree thus far, son of Demoness, top 2yr old Filly of 2002 and Dansilver 2yr old TC winner and superstar sprinter, Silver Sword has been somewhat of a bust. A dismal single race as a 2yr old, he started this year with a win in a minor stakes race on the turf and then transitioned to dirt. Though he has placed, his failure to win a single prep race given his ancestry is startling and has me questioning whether he should even be in the race, or if he would be better suited to running sprints like his father. A 3rd in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, 2nd in the G3 Lafayette Stakes at the more appropriate 7F and finished a well back 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial. Snowbank is throwing haymakers in this race with this entrant, but eventually one of them might land and pull off a Sarava and then fade into obscurity.



Thyroid Storm - $362,500 6-1-2-0

Underworld Stables – Kendane x Missy's Mirage



The first of two entrants from newcomer Underworld Stables, is the highest earning racer for his sire to date, and though his pedigree would suggest a turf specialist, his debut on the turf was a disaster of a debacle. Moved to the dirt he has displayed tenacity and is always lurking. A 2nd in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes that saw him lose a close race to State Tower and another 2nd in the G3 Gotham Stakes that saw him lose a photo to top filly Camera Shy shows he has some talent. Throw out a devastating 8th place finish in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he just hated the track, he finally broke through in his most recent start winning the G2 Arkansas Derby. If one horse in this field benefits from the extra distance of 10F, it is this one. For a new stable to have a horse with a punchers chance has to be pretty special, as long as he doesn’t repeat his performance in the Fountain Of Youth. His owner says he is the Giacamo of the race, I’d say more like Funny Cide/Afleet Alex.



Longshots



Golfo Blanco – $410,650 11-2-1-2

Yeguada Lore Toki - Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose



Golfo Blanco might have the least prestigious pedigree and has a lot of races, but with wildly mixed results. A 2yr old seasn midred by last place finishes, mid pack results overshadows the G1 victory near the end of last year. As a 3yr old, he has fared little better, with 4 races this year; it is a grab bag of results. A 7th in the G3 Holy Bull only managing to beat the lone filly ente3red in the race. A distant 4th in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby and 3rd in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. His lone win came in a non-graded stakes, The Sam F. Davis Stakes where he defeated a bunch of also-rans who won’t be showing up this Sunday. And, lets not forget, being a white horse, I imagine he will be brown by the time the race is over, covered in the dirt of the dozen or so other horses in front of him. Even Budweiser wouldn’t take a shot on this one.



Cold Come Back - $278,800 5-1-1-0

FDL Lodge – Revenge x Lady Justice



So FDL keeps Heat Seeker away and sends Cold Come Back in his place. Talk about sending a 3rd stringer instead of the first team all-star. This son of the legendary Revenge who accolades are well known is not matching his father’s success and is unfortunately showing signs he is more like his mother, the dreadful Lady Justice who never sniffed the money and it seems to be rubbing off on this horse a bit. 3 of his 5 career races have come on turf, his lone win was an allowance sprint as a 2yr old. In two career starts at 3, he finished 6th in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes on turf and showed signs of brilliance in the G1 Santa Anita Derby finishing just ahead of Ditko and losing in a photo to stable mate Heat Seeker who was making his first start on the dirt. It was either the start of good things to come, or the flash in the pan effort I believe it was.



Red Dawn - $221,750 11-0-3-3

Alydar Stables - Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora



The first of two entrants being sent to the race by Alydar Stables, it is the stables best chance for victory and it is a slim chance. He is also the 2nd horse in the race by sire Dawn Patrol, half brother to Sligeach. This winless horse in 11 career starts may have peaked as a mediocre 2 yr old. In four races at 3, he manages to finish in the money, but only makes a good trifecta pick. He ran a career best in the G2 Hutcheson Stakes at 7F, losing in a close 3rd. he was thoroughly throttled in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes finishing a distant 6th, made a quick 3 week turnaround and ran in the G2 San Felipe Stakes to finish a well beaten 4th. His final prep race he showed surprising form to finish 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, well behind race winner Find A Way. Red Dawn will need a miracle, but this isn’t 34th Street, its Kentucky, the Derby, the Run for the Roses for a horse that should be running for dandelions.





WTF?!?!? Hell has not Frozen over!



And now the what were they thinking portion. Someone slap these people upside the head and scream “what you thinking bout”.



Key Largo - $37,500 5-0-1-1

Alydar Stables - Balding Matters x Miss Music



The 2nd Alydar Stables entrant is probably the least accomplished runner in the race, the embodiment of long shot. I’m more apt to have a one night stand with my dream girl Paris Hilton before this horse ever wins the Kentucky Derby. If they ran this race 100 times, he would lose 100 times. Horrendous as a 2yr old, he showed signs of a spark at 3, a spark from a sparkler. 2nd in the Texas Heritage Stakes against claimers and 3rd in the G3 Flamingo Stakes in a career best effort behind race winner Blessed. Both parents have been relative busts in the breeding shed, outside of Iginla, son of Balding Matters, and none of that talent has seemed to rub off. But the saying goes you can’t win if you don’t run, but in this case, Key Largo wouldn’t win in a one horse field.





Out of Time - $56,250 4-0-2-0

Underworld Stables – Memcay x Xtra Special



The 2nd entrant from the new Underworld Stable (guess he picked better horses than I did) is a step above Key Largo and with the scratch condition it will be tough to harshly criticize. Unraced as 2 yr old, and son of the iconic Memcay, twice male turf horse of the year, which given Out of Times short career as a 3yr old, someone might be mishandling him. Bred for longer distances over the turf, he has run 4 times this year, nothing on turf and nothing over 8.5F. 2nd in his debut in the G3 Lecomte Stakes on the mud, which might explain the scratch condition, he followed up with a down right horrible 6th in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes and then another awful showing in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he finished 7th. Then he finished 2nd in a two horse field in the G3 Rebel Stakes and came out of that race injured. Questions abound whether the horse is healed enough to even enter the race if it was muddy, but given the long shot that is might be, this horse will be a solid bet. If not, he and Key Largo can battle it out for last.



Now, for my top 4 and the long shot.



1 - Road to Zion (F)

2 - Tundra Sky

3 - State Tower

4 - Big N' Tough



Long Shot - Thyroid Storm



Dead Last - Key Largo



That’s the preview. Hopefully you enjoyed it, if you didn’t like it, next time write the damn thing yourself then.



Have a nice day and good luck to all the entrants.

2011 KYD Preview

2011 Kentucky Derby Preview
15 colts and 1 filly are scheduled to race in this year’s Kentucky Derby; however, one horse is a “mudder” and will only race on an off track.
Let’s get straight to it… A breakdown of this year’s entrants.

Big N’ Tough (Big N’ Rich x Sovereign Belle)
Owner: Rivendell Stables
Breeder: Jersey Shore Stables

With a record of 9:6-0-0 and nearly $1.5 million in earnings this colt is a frontrunner to win this year’s Derby. He won at 10 furlongs as a two year old with a good time of 2:00.99. We expect that he will post a much better time as a 3 year old.

His wins include the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby. He has been carefully trained for this very race. He will be well-rested and ready to follow War Machine’s footsteps in becoming a BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby winner.



Matt’s Prediction: Will be surprised if this colt does not place in Top 3.



Blessed (Songandaprayer x Affluent)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Phoenix Hill Farm

This colt has a record of 7:2-2-0 and has won $350,000 in earnings. He is coming from a win in the G3 Flamingo Stakes, but when he faced Big N’ Tough in the Florida Derby he placed off the board – 5th. However, he had a rough trip and was not able to make up ground.

His problem in that race was that he prefers to drop back and make a late move and stunning run to the finish. However, he was not able to clear traffic in the relatively small field of 8. This field will be much larger and stronger than the Florida Derby; while he should be able to handle 10 furlongs – we wonder if he’ll be able to navigate past 15 other horses.


Matt’s Prediction: Will be running late. Could be an upset.



Cold Come Back (Revenge x Lady Justice)
Owner: FDL Lodge
Breeder: History’s Own Stable

This colt was purchased only a week ago by FDL Lodge with a big ticket price of $2 million dollars after he nearly beat another FDL colt Heat Seeker (who is running in the 2000 Guineas) in the Santa Anita Derby.

This colt posted an excellent time at 9F with 1:45.76 in the Santa Anita with a PSR of 114. He is coming into his own at precisely the right time. The question is whether or not FDL made the right choice in which colt to send to the Derby. But, it looks like the connections at FDL Lodge are looking to conquer both Triple Crowns with their 2 talented colts.


Matt’s Prediction: Should be there in the end. Looked strong in Santa Anita – should be able to go in the last furlong



Ditko (Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong)
Owner: Iron Racing
Breeder: Iron Racing

With a record of 10:2-5-2 and $671,250 this colt has earned a right to run for the Roses. He placed 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby with a time of 1:46.16. And last year placed 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.

He may have earned a ticket to Kentucky, but we’re not sure how this colt will fare in that last furlong. He ran a 2:01.68 earlier this year. I just don’t think that’ll be enough to cut it in this year’s Derby.



Matt’s Prediction: This colt isn’t a favorite to win and even though he’s shown some good signs this year – I just don’t think he’ll have enough stamina to go a full 10 furlongs.




Find a Way (Wheelaway x Awesome Find)
Owner: Eureka Racing Stables
Breeder: Eureka Racing Stables

This colt is coming off his win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Dubai World Cup with a time of 2:00.56 on a slow track. He has a record of 6:2-0-2 with $1.21 million in earnings.

He did well in the Dubai World Cup on a slow track against older competition going up against last year’s Champion 3 Year old Colt (Regal Son) and the very talented Mystic River. However, racing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes he’ll only have 18 days of rest.


Matt’s Prediction: He has just over 2 weeks of rest before the Derby, but I don’t see that as a factor. He’ll be one to watch in the finish; expect a good result.



Fireball (Medaglia D'oro x Henry’s Slew)
Owner: Royal Flush Farms
Breeder: Fender Stables

This colt has a record of 7:2-1-0 with $224,000 in earnings. However, after a lackluster 2 year old campaign he has a record of 4:2-1-0 for this season. He most recently placed 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Thyroid Storm.

This colt will have to find another gear to run with the favorites of this race. He’s run at 10 furlongs twice (on turf) with both times 2:02.06 and 2:02.15.


Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.




Golfo Blanco (Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose)
Owner: Yeguada Lore Toki
Breeder: Yeguada Lore Toki

This colt has a record of 11:2-1-2 and $410,650 in lifetime earnings. He recently placed 4th in the UAE Derby and 3rd in the Wood Memorial Stakes. He was nearly 8 lengths behind both Road to Zion in the UAE Derby and A View to a Kill in the Wood Memorial.

This colt is another who is taking a step up in class here and will need some help to finish in the money. He ran a lackluster 2:02.20 in the UAE Derby earlier this year.


Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.



Key Largo (Balding Matters x Miss Music)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables

This colt is one of the most inexperienced horses starting in this year’s Derby with a record of 5:0-1-1 and a mere $37,500 in earnings. This colt recently placed 3rd in the Flamingo Stakes with a time of 1:48.14.

This colt will have to show some real speed and stamina he hasn’t shown as of yet to compete in this year’s Derby.



Matt’s Prediction: Another colt that won’t be a factor.



Out of Time (Memcay x Xtra Special)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Fender Stables

This young and inexperienced colt will only compete if the track is “wet/muddy” according to the scratch instructions. With a record of 4:0-2-0 and $56,250 in earnings this colt is making his first G1 start.

He has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and doesn’t look like he has the stamina to run a full 10; nor the speed for this race.



Matt’s Prediction: Another non-factor colt.



Red Dawn (Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables

This colt is Alydar Stables’ second entrant and looks like a more convincing entrant than stable partner. He boasts a record of 11:0-3-3 and $221,750 in earnings. Recently he placed 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

This colt came some 10 lengths behind Find a Way in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. While a better entrant than stable partner, doesn’t seem to be as talented as the favorites in this field.



Matt’s Prediction: Should place better than stable partner – but another horse that won’t place in the money.



Road to Zion (Big N’ Rich x Giant’s KD) - FILLY
Owner: Godolphin17
Breeder: Godolphin17

This filly is looking to do what Perfect Bell could not and become the first filly to win the Triple Crown and first 3 year old since War Machine. She has a record of 13:6-3-0 with $2,626,000 in lifetime earnings. She has won all three races that she has entered in this season.

In the UAE Derby she ran the perfect race; stalking for the major part of the race and smoothly taking control in the last few furlongs – coasting in to win easily. She posted a time of 2:00.91 – not extraordinary by PF-standards; but neither was this filly fully extended.



Matt’s Prediction: This filly is one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win.



Silver Sword (Dansilver x Demoness)
Owner: Snowbank Farms
Breeder: Snowbank Farms


This colt has a record of 5:1-1-1 with $142,500 in lifetime earnings. He has never raced at the G1 level, so he’s taking a major class jump this weekend. In his last start he placed 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, some 9 lengths off A View to a Kill.

This colt doesn’t look like he can handle 10 furlongs or the speed and class of this Kentucky Derby field. For 9 furlongs he finished in 1:48.96 (in the Wood Memorial).



Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.



Sligeach (Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee)
Owner: Woodbury
Breeder: Woodbury

This colt is coming off a win at the G3 Louisiana Derby putting his record to 6:3-1-1 and $479,125 in lifetime earnings. He’s got 2 wins in his last two starts (G2 Norfolk Stakes), but hasn’t raced past 8.5 furlongs yet and is making his G1 debut in the Derby this weekend.

In his win in the Louisiana Derby he had a horrible trip, was explosive to capture the lead, then coasted in to win. His time of 1:42.08 isn’t anything to be excited about – but the way he did it was impressive. And he came back with a whopping ESN (if you take any clout in them) – 3485.427.


Matt’s Prediction: This horse could be an upset. He’s an unknown and showed impressive signs in his last outing. Wouldn’t be all that surprised by a Top 3 finish.



State Tower (Troll Tower x Fashion Statement)
Owner: Goforwand Stables
Breeder: Goforwand Stables

This colt has a record of 10:3-0-0 with $270,000 in earnings. His last 3 wins come from his last 3 starts – all at 8.5 furlongs and all on dirt. His best time comes in at 1:40.49 in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes. This colt, also has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and is making his first G1 appearance.

He is ready for a bump up in class. He has the speed and in his last race coasted winning wire to wire in decisive fashion. This is another colt that is a question mark. He hasn’t faced tough competition and hasn’t raced at 9+ furlongs.


Matt’s Prediction: This colt could also be an upset. Another unknown with some impressive races under his belt; will do well at 8 – 9 furlongs – the question is can he go 10?



Thyroid Storm (Kendane x Missy’s Mirage)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Parklands

This second Underworld colt has a bit more experience winning the G2 Arkansas Derby, putting his record to 6:1-2-0 with $362,500 in earnings. He hasn’t race in a G1 before, so this’ll be his first start at the G1 level.

In the Arkansas Derby he won with a time of 1:47.81 at 9 furlongs. I feel that 10 furlongs will be too far for this colt; and indeed the depth of this field as well.


Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.



Tundra Sky (Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Rainbow

This colt boasts a record of 6:3-2-0 with $978,000 in earnings. In his last race he placed second to Road to Zion in the UAE Derby. His only other start as a 3 year old was in the 9 furlong Donn Handicap where he won with a time of 1:47.38 beating Regal Son.

This colt is a good and respectable colt, but he couldn’t beat Road to Zion in the UAE Derby, and he’ll have a hard time beating her in the Derby. He’ll be out early, but I don’t expect him to hold his speed over the full 10 furlongs.


Matt’s Prediction: This colt could make his bid here and has a chance to place in the money; but I see him fading in the last furlong.




CONCLUSIONS

Road to Zion – My favorite to win
Big N’ Tough – 2nd favorite – Top 3 finisher
Find a Way – Will be impressive; Top 3 finisher
Cold Come Back – Will be in the battle. Could be an upset.
Blessed – Watch for this colt. Will be running hard in the last few furlongs



Top Upset Factors:
Sligeach
State Tower

Kentucky Derby Preview

Could the finish of the Kentucky Derby be like this picture above?

7- Kentucky Derby 3.30
2000m $1,000,000 and trophy. G1. 3yo. SW. No claims.
1 1s111 BIG N’ TOUGH, 1 Rivendell Stables 55.5 2.60f
2 7s151 BLESSED, 2 Rainbow 55.5 41.00
3 91s62 COLD COME BACK, 3 FDL Lodge 55.5 9.00
4 1s233 DITKO, 4 Iron Racing 55.5 11.00
5 3s131 FIND A WAY, 5 Eureka Racing Stables 55.5 4.50
6 s6112 FIREBALL, 6 Royal Flush Farms 55.5 31.00
7 s7143 GOLFO BLANCO, 7 Yeguarda Lore Toki 55.5 41.00
8 85s23 KEY LARGO, 8 Alydar Stables 55.5 71.00
9 2672 OUT OF TIME, 9 Underworld Stables 55.5 151.00
10 s3643 RED DAWN, 10 Alydar Stables 55.5 26.00
11 s1324 SILVER SWORD, 12 Snowbank Farms 55.5 61.00
12 431s1 SLIGEACH, 13 Woodbury Stables 55.5 7.00
13 6s111 STATE TOWER, 14 Goforwand Stables 55.5 11.00
14 02821 THYROID STORM, 15 Underworld Stables 55.5 21.00
15 20s12 TUNDRA SKY, 16 Rainbow 55.5 15.00
16 1s111 ROAD TO ZION, 11 Godolphin17 53 2.80
Big N’ Tough 1, Find A Way 2, Cold Come Back 3, Road to Zion 4

The betting odds in this form guide are an assessor’s estimate of the odds which will prevail on the date of the particular racing event and are not necessarily the odds that will be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

1 BIG N’ TOUGH 55.5 (Rivendell Stables) 9: 6-0-0 $1,428,000 Distance: 1: 1-0-0
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of last season which is always a good guide to this race. Has been given plenty of time for this and the trainer has been building up his distances perfectly so far. Last start he beat a high class field in the last 100m, beating runner Blessed in the process. Looks primed to win this and a brilliant chance in the triple crown.

2 BLESSED 55.5 (Rainbow) 7: 2-2-0 $350,000 Distance: No starts
Very promising horse in the making here. Has been well favoured in his last few starts in top class fields. Two starts ago in the Florida Derby he ran $7.00 third favourite behind Big N’ Tough and Badge. He was unlucky on that occasion. Last start he rounded up a good field with ease and beat Kentucky Derby runner Key Largo by eight lengths. He’s the best roughie in my opinion.

3 COLD COME BACK 55.5 (FDL Lodge) 5: 1-1-0 $278,800 Distance: No starts
Recent buy by leading trainer FDL Lodge for $2,000,000 from Eureka Racing Stables. He’s had two runs on the dirt for for a $71 last (immature and probably too short a distance) and a magnificent run last start when he scared Heat Seeker and ran a close 2nd to him. No horse has done that so far so he’ll have plenty of admirers. No Heat Seeker here today but Big N’ Tough is the proven dirt champ for 3yos and he’ll will have to pull out a lot to beat him but I think it’s possible.

4 DITKO 55.5 (Iron Racing) 10: 2-5-2 $671,250 Distance: 1: 0-0-1
Perennial bridesmade who has ran very well this campaign. First up he bumped into Big N’ Tough, second up he bumped into Heat Seeker and again at his next start. He’s just not having much luck at the moment. First-up he ran very well but was beaten 4 lengths by Big N’ Tough. Second-up he ran well again over this distance on turf but lacked the sprint to run down Heat Seeker. At his last run he ran a very good race to be beaten only 2 lengths behind Heat Seeker, against Cold Come Back among his rivals today. Great chance for being in the money.

5 FIND A WAY 55.5 (Eureka Racing Stables) 6: 2-0-2 $1,210,000 Distance: 1: 0-0-1
This fella can’t be faulted. Since he’s been up to this distance range he has ran well everytime. Three starts back he won his first race in beating Remsen Stakes winner Antagonist. At his next start he was the only 3yo in the Dubai World Cup and he ran a great race, finishing 2 lengths behind the dirt champ Regal Lad. Last start he won his first Group 1 beating Red Dawn easily. He’s a tough nut and he’ll be in the proceedings at the finish.

6 FIREBALL 55.5 (Royal Flush Farms) 7: 2-1-0 $224,000 Distance: 3: 2-0-0
Improving horse with the best record at the distance in the whole field. Has been racing on turf mostly this campaign but he ran a nice race last start for second behind another runner in this Thyroid Storm. He will run out the distance out fine but I think he’ll be a better chance in the Belmont.

7 GOLFO BLANCO 55.5 (Yeguarda Lore Toki) 11: 2-1-2 $410,650 Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Group 1 winner who has been so-so this campaign. Ran a nice fourth in the U.A.E Derby before running a good third to A View To A Kill last week. Fought on well. Before that ran a very good race for fourth behind Road To Zion. Looks to be a horse at big odds that can run fourth or fifth but I can’t honestly see him winning.

8 KEY LARGO 55.5 (Alydar Stables) 5: 0-1-1 $37,500 Distance: No starts
A promising horse from Alydar who’s two runs this campaign have been good efforts. First up as favourite he wasn’t beaten far as 2.60f behind subsequent winner Definite. Last start he was well fancied again but got beaten 8 lengths by Blessed. I see him improving even more as the season wears on but I don’t think he’s up to Kentucky Derby standard.


9 OUT OF TIME 55.5 (Underworld Stables) 4:0-2-0 $56,250 Distance: no starts
Honest youngster who has been around the mark this campaign. Four starts back in his first start he ran a rip-snorter of a run for a close second to Kenny’s Charm at $13. Next start he ran sixth against several top 3yos like State Tower, Thyroid Storm, Antagonist, Warrior King and Inside Man. Next start he ran against a top class field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and was by no means disgraced, and then last start he got well-beaten by a first starter, which we can’t a grip on. Don’t see him having the class to win but if it’s muddy he’ll run close up.

10 RED DAWN 55.5 (Alydar Stables) 11: 0-3-3 $221,750 Distance: no starts
Probably the best maiden on the game here. First up in the Hutcheson Stakes he ran a good race to only be beaten 1-1/4 len beating the Preakness bound Badge in the process. His next run was good behind some stars when well fancied. Punters were warming to him at his next start on form but he could only run fourth, but bounced back with an impressive run to beaten by 2 stars at Group 1 level last start. He has a heap of ability and will pay his way in later events but I don’t think he’ll break his maiden here.

11 SILVER SWORD 55.5 (Snowbank Farm) 5: 1-1-1 $142,500 Distance: no starts
Another promising horse trying to give Laurie her first Kentucky Derby win here. First up he astounded the Aussie trainers with a magnificent first up performance beating subsequent winners Eterno, Ride The Lightning, El Pais and Dancin In The Dark at $11.00. Next start he was back on his preferred surface and he ran third behind State Tower when one of the fancies. After that run he was back to 1400m and he ran an impressive second behind the sprint specialist Pharlane. After that he backed up 10 days later and had a brave performance for fourth behind A View To A Kill. Has showed he can win at big odds in the McEwen Trophy first up but I think he might be a tad outclassed in this.

12 SLIGEACH 55.5 (Woodbury Stables) 6:3-1-1 $479,125 Distance: no starts
Top performer here who has been very impressive in all his starts so far. His last run as a 2yo was very good winning quite easily beating Song Of The Sea. At his next start he dominated a handy field when winning by 3- ½ lengths over the promising Tahkodha Bay. Can’t fault him and his form has been impeccable. Never been out of the money. Gives the indication that he gets the distance. He’s a horse that I can see winning.

13 STATE TOWER 55.5 (Goforwand Stables) 10: 3-0-0 $270,000 Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Half-brother to last years winner New Tower from the same trainer Goforwand Stables. Three starts back he beat a top class field quite easily and then at his next start he won quite easily again. He won again last start at $1.50f. Can’t dismiss this fella, I’m not sure about how good he is but you would be crazy not to consider him a top 5 chance.

14 THYROID STORM 55.5 (Underworld Stables) 6:1-2-0 $362,500 Distance: no starts
Another promising horse who has been around the mark this campaign. In the Santa Catalina he probably found the winner a tad too good and at this next start he just failed to run down Camera Shy. Then last start he narrowly beat Fireball and Warrior King in a close finish. He has some class but it will be hard to see him beat the real good ones but I’d be surprised if he runs worse then midfield.

15 TUNDRA SKY 55.5 (Rainbow) 6:3-2-0 $978,000 Distance: 3: 2-1-0
A very good 3yo that has a great record this season. First-up he took on the older horses and at $15.00 beat the 3yo horse of the year Regal Son quite easily although the runner-ups jockey rode like he had ants in his pants. Then next start he made a sustained run but failed to run down Road To Zion. Has impeccable form and he runs the distance out strong. Great chance.

16 ROAD TO ZION 53 (Godolphin17) 13: 6-3-0 $2,626,000 Distance: 1: 1-0-0
Magnificent filly who has been brilliant this campaign. First up she beat the champion sprinter Life On Mars although LOM was unlucky, then went to Sydney and narrowly prevailed from Rocket, Arctic Slicker and Wanna Be A Fox. That form has been proven. Last start in Dubai he done a great job beating Tundra Sky in the U.A.E Derby. Can she be one of the first fillies to win the Kentucky Derby? Maybe she can.

Summary: It's impossible to pick a winner in this but I'm going for 1-BIG N' TOUGH as he's the class runner and he gets the distance. Other chances to 5-FIND A WAY who is in impeccable form, 3-COLD COME BACK who almost beat Heat Seeker last start and the champion filly 16-ROAD TO ZION. Other chances go to 2-BLESSED, 4-DITKO, 10-RED DAWN, 12-SLIGEACH, 13-STATE TOWER & 15-TUNDRA SKY. Roughies are 7-GOLFO BLANCO & 11-SILVER SWORD.

VRC DERBY FORM GUIDE

6- VRC Derby 3.30
2500m $1,000,000 and trophy. 3yo. G1. No claims.
1 111 HEATSEEKER, 7 FDL Lodge 55.5 1.60f
2 2s211 DAREDEVIL, 3 Bonai Farms 55.5 4.00
3 15s42 GIRL CRAZY, 5 Rainbow 55.5 8.00
4 540s2 BOLD BARD, 1 Watch This Space 55.5 15.00
5 4s752 SINKING FEAR, 8 Olmo Dorato 55.5 15.00
6 5s471 BOMBTRACK, 2 Firstholme Racing 55.5 21.00
7 0s834 DIGGINFORVAMPIRES, 4 Olmo Dorato 55.5 26.00
8 020s UPWARDS, 9 Spartan Racing Stables 55.5 81.00
9 00s55 GRISU, 6 Yeguarda Lore Toki 55.5 41.00
Heatseeker 1, Daredevil 2, Sinking Fear 3, Girl Crazy 4

1 HEATSEEKER (FDL Lodge) 3c By Dubai Gold- Worldwide Elsie (3:3-0-0):
New superstar of the turf coming in unbeaten into this. Wasn’t ever going to be beaten despite determined run of runner-up when 4- ½ len 1st (122) Girl Crazy, Ditko, Di Vinci Code $1.50f 2000m Randwick Spring Champion Stakes (G 1) firm trk February 25. Trained by the current leading trainer Finlay from FDL Lodge. He looks like he will be the one to beat.

2 DAREDEVIL (Bonai Farms) 3c By Nightwing- Promised Land (9:3-3-1):
Showed his class last start with a magnificent win over the older horses when a 6- ¾ len 1st (107) Trigun, Nystoi, Cyberstar $2.80f 2000m Caulfield Yalumba Stakes (G 1) firm trk March 4. Couldn’t have been more impressive last start beating a few smart horses. Looks as if he’d run out the distance. The main danger to the favourite.

3 GIRL CRAZY (Rainbow) 3c By Princely Hall- Exoterra (6:1-2-0):
Very consistent youngster who has a great record around this distance. A typically dogged run with a 4- ½ len 2nd (122) Heatseeker, Ditko, Di Vinci Code $9.00 2000m Randwick Spring Champion Stakes (G 1) firm trk February 25. Last win: out-fought well placed outsider when a 1- ½ len 1st (115) Upwards, New Moon On Monday, Golfo Blanco $2.80f 2400m Shenandoah Downs Maiden firm trk April 9. Has ran as good as anyhorse versing Heatseeker so far, so he should run a good race again this time.

4 BOLD BARD (Watch This Space) 3c By Bold ‘N Free- Bardego (9:1-2-2):
Another consistent fellow who ran a very good race first up when a close second to the Caulfield Guineas placegetter in ¼ len 2nd (122) Gournay, Bullo Arrogante, Wild Dane $3.25 1600m Moonee Valley Bill Stutt Stakes (G 2) firm trk February 25. Last win: huge flogging when a 16- ¼ len 1st (122) Belvedere, High Heart, Imperial Champ $3.25f 1900m Shenandoah Downs Starter Allowance firm trk March 20. Looks like a horse that will keep on running on and has enough class to contend here.

5 SINKING FEAR (Olmo Dorato) 3c By Purple Passer- Classy Lassy (5:0-1-0):
Up-and-coming 3yo who ran a very nice race behind the retiring champion Jenny’s My Gal when a 6- ¾ len 2nd (89) Jenny’s My Gal, Seven Memory $6.00 2600m Randwick Metropolitan Stakes (G 1) firm trk February 25. Another horse that runs the distance right out and the second to Jenny’s My Gal is good form for this.

6 BOMBTRACK (Firstholme Racing) 3c By Encosta De Lago- Yanks Music (8:1-1-0):
Promising 3yo who broke through for his first win when a 6- ¾ len 1st (122) Grecian Rebel, Belltaw, Meigh Ho $2.50f 1800m Cheltenham Hill Smith Stakes firm trk March 11. Is a roughie at big odds but at his only previous run against Heat Seeker was a well beaten seventh at 60-1.

7 DIGGINFORVAMPIRES (Olmo Dorato) 3c By Mineshaft- Sunday Joy (4:0-0-1):
Another staying 3yo who has sound form against the older horses. Good run last start when a 9- ¼ len 4th (113) Tension, Wall Street, Confederation $21.00 2400m Caulfield Winning Edge Stakes (G 2) good trk March 4. He’ll run the distance out, but class is the only worry.

8 UPWARDS (Spartan Racing Stables) 3c By Collier Hill- Raised The Bar (3:0-1-0):
Recent auction buy from Plugger Racing for $91,000 before getting sold from him to Spartan Racing for $200,000 later on. Was beaten a far way behind a top class field when a 29 len 11th (115) Garson De Garcia, Big Risk, Di Vinci Code $34.00 1600m Hollywood Park Generous Stakes (G 3) firm trk November 20. Did run an excellent second over 2400m at $91.00 last year behind Girl Crazy and beating the top class New Moon On Monday. Could be a roughie that could run a half-decent race in this.

9 GRISU (Yeguarda Lore Toki) 3c By Octagonal Waltz- Mischief (5:0-0-0):
An under-rated horse who has improved rapidly as the distance has increased. Tried hard but wasn’t good enough in the end when a 12- ¼ len 5th (114) Fireball, Ultimate Hustler, Tahkodha Bay $8.00 2000m Royal Randwick Dulcify Quality Handicap hard trk Febraury 26.

Memsie Stakes Preview

7- Memsie Stakes 4.00
1400m $150,000 and trophy. 3yo & up. G2. WFA. No claims.
1 8186s ETERNAMENTE, 3 Tree Top Farms 58 5.50
2 574s4 BELLFAST FOREVER, 1 JD Kayll Race Club 58 15.00
3 1129s DRUNKEN SMART, 2 Tree Top Farms 57.5 2.60f
4 5311s PROFESSOR’S DRAGON, 7 Godolphin17 57.5 8.00
5 460s0 GOING DOWNTOWN, 4 Olmo Dorato 57.5 26.00
6 017s2 SCREAM DAY, 8 Firstholme Racing 55 10.00
7 0533s HALF CUT, 5 Northern Lights 52 21.00
8 7s LORD OF THE DANCE, 6 Whisperwood 52 51.00
Drunken Smart 1, Professor’s Dragon 2, Eternamente 3, Bellfast Forever 4

1 ETERNAMENTE (Tree Top Farms) 5h By Prospect Bay- Mexican Hawk (34:5-4-9):
Group 1 winner three starts ago who had two honest runs after that triumph. Tried hard in large field when a 4 len 6th (130) Subliminal 1000m $8.00 Caulfield Sir John Monash Stakes good trk December 19. Last win: placed to perfection when 5- ½ len 1st (126) Flight Of Fancy, Thunderdome, King Chopin 1400m $2.80f Longchamp Prix De La Foret G1 yielding trk October 8. Is the class runner of the field and has ran well at this distance range. He’ll be hard to beat.

2 BELLFAST FOREVER (JD Kayll Race Club) 6h By Bellbuster- Forest Fae (44:3-8-6):
High-class sprinter second-up after a long break. First-up and a handy effort when 7- ½ len 4th (130) Beach Patrol, Bellfast Lad, Arod 1200m $3.50 Santa Rosa Park Sian’s Gold Sprint G2 firm trk January 1. Last win: easy as you like 2- ¾ len 1st (122) Wheel And Deal, Inspection, Absolut 1300m $1.80f Santa Anita Baldwin Stakes G3 hard trk February 2 (2008). Is very good when at his best and did run second at this distance and class behind Mirror Image in the Sandown Stakes. Can contend if he turns up on game day.

3 DRUNKEN SMART (Tree Top Farms) 4c By Smart Strike- Champagne (18:3-3-1):
One of the hot horses at the end of year auction with a bidding war won by Tree Top Farms. Tried hard but wasn’t up to those stars but a very good effort neverless when 7- ¾ len 9th (128) Flawless Tower 1000m $21.00 Sha Tin Cathay Pacific Hong Kong Sprint G1 firm trk December 10. Last win: nice win running away by 3-¼ len 1st (120) Always Charming, Island Refugee, Beer Tap 1600m Churchill Downs Iroquois Stakes G3 fast trk October 30. His effort last start was very good and that would win this and I expect him to do that.

4 PROFESSOR’S DRAGON (Godolphin17) 4c By Mr. Professor- Quarter Moon (20:3-3-1):
Emerging racehorse who is in impeccable form. Won as he liked when an easy favourite with a 1 len 1st (122) Wild Wonder, Oprah, Under The Bridge 1300m $3.25f Rosehill Gardens Winter Stakes hard trk December 12. Is going great and another with great distance claims.

5 GOING DOWNTOWN (Olmo Dorato) 4c By Kingston Town- Lashed (14:1-0-0):
Despite having an average strike rate he is very capable. Was beaten by a long way when 25- ½ len 5th (129) Beach Patrol 1200m $5.50 Santa Rosa Park Sian’s Gold Sprint G2 firm trk January 1. Last win: big form turnaround half- head 1st (118) Wild Wonder, Sphynx, Pike’s Peak 1600m $6.00 Royal Randwick Carbine Club Stakes hard trk August 29. If you dismiss his first run he’d be one of the fancies.

6 SCREAM DAY (Firstholme Racing) 4f By Ensign Day- Screaming Eagle (21:3-7-3):
Very consistent racehorse who tried very hard last start when a 2- ¼ len 2nd (117) Miss Disguise, Charming Lil 1300m $3.50 Santa Anita Montovia Handicap G3 good trk January 1. Last win: determined win nose 1st (117) Cashew, Professor’s Dragon, Dallas Cowboys 1600m $7.00 Eagle Farm Queensland Guineas G2 good trk October 3. Is a very good racehorse. Will be hard to beat.

7 HALF CUT (Northern Lights) 3c By Mineshaft- Half bridled (7:0-0-2):
Emerging racehorse who has really improved of late. Was beaten far as favourite but by no means a bad run when 11 len 3rd (122) Bullo Arrogante, Glauco 1400m EVENS Royal Randwick Ted Ballieu Handicap firm trk September 5. On the way up and a forward run won’t surprise.

8 LORD OF THE DANCE (Whisperwood) 3c By Bold N’Free- Shadow dancer (1:0-0-0):
Unproven racehorse with nice breeding, being related to Bold N’ Honourable & Diascay’s Shadow. First start at huge odds at 22- ¾ len 7th (122) Kennys Charm 1600m $81.00 Fair Grounds Lecomte Stakes muddy trk January 12. May be better on turf and firmer ground.