Kentucky Derby Preview

Could the finish of the Kentucky Derby be like this picture above?

7- Kentucky Derby 3.30
2000m $1,000,000 and trophy. G1. 3yo. SW. No claims.
1 1s111 BIG N’ TOUGH, 1 Rivendell Stables 55.5 2.60f
2 7s151 BLESSED, 2 Rainbow 55.5 41.00
3 91s62 COLD COME BACK, 3 FDL Lodge 55.5 9.00
4 1s233 DITKO, 4 Iron Racing 55.5 11.00
5 3s131 FIND A WAY, 5 Eureka Racing Stables 55.5 4.50
6 s6112 FIREBALL, 6 Royal Flush Farms 55.5 31.00
7 s7143 GOLFO BLANCO, 7 Yeguarda Lore Toki 55.5 41.00
8 85s23 KEY LARGO, 8 Alydar Stables 55.5 71.00
9 2672 OUT OF TIME, 9 Underworld Stables 55.5 151.00
10 s3643 RED DAWN, 10 Alydar Stables 55.5 26.00
11 s1324 SILVER SWORD, 12 Snowbank Farms 55.5 61.00
12 431s1 SLIGEACH, 13 Woodbury Stables 55.5 7.00
13 6s111 STATE TOWER, 14 Goforwand Stables 55.5 11.00
14 02821 THYROID STORM, 15 Underworld Stables 55.5 21.00
15 20s12 TUNDRA SKY, 16 Rainbow 55.5 15.00
16 1s111 ROAD TO ZION, 11 Godolphin17 53 2.80
Big N’ Tough 1, Find A Way 2, Cold Come Back 3, Road to Zion 4

The betting odds in this form guide are an assessor’s estimate of the odds which will prevail on the date of the particular racing event and are not necessarily the odds that will be offered by a licensed bookmaker.

1 BIG N’ TOUGH 55.5 (Rivendell Stables) 9: 6-0-0 $1,428,000 Distance: 1: 1-0-0
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of last season which is always a good guide to this race. Has been given plenty of time for this and the trainer has been building up his distances perfectly so far. Last start he beat a high class field in the last 100m, beating runner Blessed in the process. Looks primed to win this and a brilliant chance in the triple crown.

2 BLESSED 55.5 (Rainbow) 7: 2-2-0 $350,000 Distance: No starts
Very promising horse in the making here. Has been well favoured in his last few starts in top class fields. Two starts ago in the Florida Derby he ran $7.00 third favourite behind Big N’ Tough and Badge. He was unlucky on that occasion. Last start he rounded up a good field with ease and beat Kentucky Derby runner Key Largo by eight lengths. He’s the best roughie in my opinion.

3 COLD COME BACK 55.5 (FDL Lodge) 5: 1-1-0 $278,800 Distance: No starts
Recent buy by leading trainer FDL Lodge for $2,000,000 from Eureka Racing Stables. He’s had two runs on the dirt for for a $71 last (immature and probably too short a distance) and a magnificent run last start when he scared Heat Seeker and ran a close 2nd to him. No horse has done that so far so he’ll have plenty of admirers. No Heat Seeker here today but Big N’ Tough is the proven dirt champ for 3yos and he’ll will have to pull out a lot to beat him but I think it’s possible.

4 DITKO 55.5 (Iron Racing) 10: 2-5-2 $671,250 Distance: 1: 0-0-1
Perennial bridesmade who has ran very well this campaign. First up he bumped into Big N’ Tough, second up he bumped into Heat Seeker and again at his next start. He’s just not having much luck at the moment. First-up he ran very well but was beaten 4 lengths by Big N’ Tough. Second-up he ran well again over this distance on turf but lacked the sprint to run down Heat Seeker. At his last run he ran a very good race to be beaten only 2 lengths behind Heat Seeker, against Cold Come Back among his rivals today. Great chance for being in the money.

5 FIND A WAY 55.5 (Eureka Racing Stables) 6: 2-0-2 $1,210,000 Distance: 1: 0-0-1
This fella can’t be faulted. Since he’s been up to this distance range he has ran well everytime. Three starts back he won his first race in beating Remsen Stakes winner Antagonist. At his next start he was the only 3yo in the Dubai World Cup and he ran a great race, finishing 2 lengths behind the dirt champ Regal Lad. Last start he won his first Group 1 beating Red Dawn easily. He’s a tough nut and he’ll be in the proceedings at the finish.

6 FIREBALL 55.5 (Royal Flush Farms) 7: 2-1-0 $224,000 Distance: 3: 2-0-0
Improving horse with the best record at the distance in the whole field. Has been racing on turf mostly this campaign but he ran a nice race last start for second behind another runner in this Thyroid Storm. He will run out the distance out fine but I think he’ll be a better chance in the Belmont.

7 GOLFO BLANCO 55.5 (Yeguarda Lore Toki) 11: 2-1-2 $410,650 Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Group 1 winner who has been so-so this campaign. Ran a nice fourth in the U.A.E Derby before running a good third to A View To A Kill last week. Fought on well. Before that ran a very good race for fourth behind Road To Zion. Looks to be a horse at big odds that can run fourth or fifth but I can’t honestly see him winning.

8 KEY LARGO 55.5 (Alydar Stables) 5: 0-1-1 $37,500 Distance: No starts
A promising horse from Alydar who’s two runs this campaign have been good efforts. First up as favourite he wasn’t beaten far as 2.60f behind subsequent winner Definite. Last start he was well fancied again but got beaten 8 lengths by Blessed. I see him improving even more as the season wears on but I don’t think he’s up to Kentucky Derby standard.


9 OUT OF TIME 55.5 (Underworld Stables) 4:0-2-0 $56,250 Distance: no starts
Honest youngster who has been around the mark this campaign. Four starts back in his first start he ran a rip-snorter of a run for a close second to Kenny’s Charm at $13. Next start he ran sixth against several top 3yos like State Tower, Thyroid Storm, Antagonist, Warrior King and Inside Man. Next start he ran against a top class field in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and was by no means disgraced, and then last start he got well-beaten by a first starter, which we can’t a grip on. Don’t see him having the class to win but if it’s muddy he’ll run close up.

10 RED DAWN 55.5 (Alydar Stables) 11: 0-3-3 $221,750 Distance: no starts
Probably the best maiden on the game here. First up in the Hutcheson Stakes he ran a good race to only be beaten 1-1/4 len beating the Preakness bound Badge in the process. His next run was good behind some stars when well fancied. Punters were warming to him at his next start on form but he could only run fourth, but bounced back with an impressive run to beaten by 2 stars at Group 1 level last start. He has a heap of ability and will pay his way in later events but I don’t think he’ll break his maiden here.

11 SILVER SWORD 55.5 (Snowbank Farm) 5: 1-1-1 $142,500 Distance: no starts
Another promising horse trying to give Laurie her first Kentucky Derby win here. First up he astounded the Aussie trainers with a magnificent first up performance beating subsequent winners Eterno, Ride The Lightning, El Pais and Dancin In The Dark at $11.00. Next start he was back on his preferred surface and he ran third behind State Tower when one of the fancies. After that run he was back to 1400m and he ran an impressive second behind the sprint specialist Pharlane. After that he backed up 10 days later and had a brave performance for fourth behind A View To A Kill. Has showed he can win at big odds in the McEwen Trophy first up but I think he might be a tad outclassed in this.

12 SLIGEACH 55.5 (Woodbury Stables) 6:3-1-1 $479,125 Distance: no starts
Top performer here who has been very impressive in all his starts so far. His last run as a 2yo was very good winning quite easily beating Song Of The Sea. At his next start he dominated a handy field when winning by 3- ½ lengths over the promising Tahkodha Bay. Can’t fault him and his form has been impeccable. Never been out of the money. Gives the indication that he gets the distance. He’s a horse that I can see winning.

13 STATE TOWER 55.5 (Goforwand Stables) 10: 3-0-0 $270,000 Distance: 1: 0-0-0
Half-brother to last years winner New Tower from the same trainer Goforwand Stables. Three starts back he beat a top class field quite easily and then at his next start he won quite easily again. He won again last start at $1.50f. Can’t dismiss this fella, I’m not sure about how good he is but you would be crazy not to consider him a top 5 chance.

14 THYROID STORM 55.5 (Underworld Stables) 6:1-2-0 $362,500 Distance: no starts
Another promising horse who has been around the mark this campaign. In the Santa Catalina he probably found the winner a tad too good and at this next start he just failed to run down Camera Shy. Then last start he narrowly beat Fireball and Warrior King in a close finish. He has some class but it will be hard to see him beat the real good ones but I’d be surprised if he runs worse then midfield.

15 TUNDRA SKY 55.5 (Rainbow) 6:3-2-0 $978,000 Distance: 3: 2-1-0
A very good 3yo that has a great record this season. First-up he took on the older horses and at $15.00 beat the 3yo horse of the year Regal Son quite easily although the runner-ups jockey rode like he had ants in his pants. Then next start he made a sustained run but failed to run down Road To Zion. Has impeccable form and he runs the distance out strong. Great chance.

16 ROAD TO ZION 53 (Godolphin17) 13: 6-3-0 $2,626,000 Distance: 1: 1-0-0
Magnificent filly who has been brilliant this campaign. First up she beat the champion sprinter Life On Mars although LOM was unlucky, then went to Sydney and narrowly prevailed from Rocket, Arctic Slicker and Wanna Be A Fox. That form has been proven. Last start in Dubai he done a great job beating Tundra Sky in the U.A.E Derby. Can she be one of the first fillies to win the Kentucky Derby? Maybe she can.

Summary: It's impossible to pick a winner in this but I'm going for 1-BIG N' TOUGH as he's the class runner and he gets the distance. Other chances to 5-FIND A WAY who is in impeccable form, 3-COLD COME BACK who almost beat Heat Seeker last start and the champion filly 16-ROAD TO ZION. Other chances go to 2-BLESSED, 4-DITKO, 10-RED DAWN, 12-SLIGEACH, 13-STATE TOWER & 15-TUNDRA SKY. Roughies are 7-GOLFO BLANCO & 11-SILVER SWORD.