Reposted: By Willis
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Welcome to the 2011 PF Kentucky Derby Preview Special, I’m your host, Willis and you can call me Willis (and if one person even so much as thinks of doing the “What you talking bout Willis” joke, I will go Tanya Harding on your horse). The first race in the coveted Triple Crown will come you live Sunday, September 7th from the historic Churchill Downs in Kentucky and for a short history lesson on the track, I recommend Google.
The 10th running (give or take depending on when the archives feel like working) of this race drew a 16 horse field. We got big names, small names, no names, and who dat? All lined up to enter the starting gate for a run at immortality. 4 of the top 10 3 year old money earners have entered, Find A Way, Tundra Sky, Big N’Tough and last but certainly not least, our very own Winning Colors, as Road to Zion will be the lone filly to take on the boys. Some notable absences include A View To A Kill, the Wood Memorial winner owned by Otsego farms and Heat Seeker, owned by FDL Lodge and winner of the Santa Anita Derby.
But, with that said, we still have a deep and talented field for which I will get you up to speed on very shortly, but first, we got to pay some bills and go to commercial. Someone has to sponsor this gibberish!
(INSERT Advertisement Using Horses Here. you know, some random company who wouldn’t know a starting gate from a farm tractor to sell their product during a race they think is taking place in Alabama. Whoohoo they like horse racing, so you should to. Now go buy that Viagra because it boosts horsepower…….get it…..horsepower)
Well that was umm, yeah, now the fun part, to see how many hurt feelings I can cause throughout this Preview. (The over/under is 10) And don’t ask me post position, trust me if I knew, you’d know.
Top Contenders
Big N' Tough - $1,428,000 - 9-6-0-0
Rivendell Stable - Big N' Rich x Sovereign Belle
This horse is certainly one of the favorites to capture the Run for the Roses, and why not. A winner of his last 6 races since maturing late as a 2 yr old, this winner of the 2010 BC Juvenile came into his 3yr old campaign with the hype train honking and didn’t fail to deliver. Impressive wins in the G3 Risen Star and G1 Florida Derby, there is a lot to like about this Smarty Jones size horse, but I question his ability to make the 10 furlong distance. His breeding makes him suspect, as both his parents were equally incapable beyond 9 furlongs. He has a win at the Derby distance of 10F, but that was as a 2yr old and on turf, and with a very close win in the Florida Derby at 9F, can he hold his track record setting speed for an additional furlong which can be an eternity.
Find A Way - $1,210,000 6-2-0-2
Eureka Racing Stables - Wheelaway x Awesome Find
This homebred colt may lack the impressive parental lineage as Big N’Tough, he certainly makes up for in talent. An immature 2yr old, he began his 3yr old campaign with a nice victory in the G2 San Rafael Stakes, and then he took on older horses for the prestigious G1 Dubai Wold Cup, where he finished a close 3rd at the 10F distance, proving he is quite capable of lasting down the front stretch for home. His last race saw him set the track record in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass. The lone question will be his endurance, after running what some would consider a tough campaign, coming off back to back races on 3 weeks rest and entering the Derby on another 3 week layoff after running a massive race in the Toyota Blue Grass, will he have any gas left in the tank, and at $4 a gallon, I wouldn’t blame him if he came up empty.
Road to Zion - F – $2,626,000 13-6-3-0
Godolphin17 - Big N' Rich x Giant's K D
The only filly entered in the and half sister to race favorite Big N’ Tough, is a winner of her last 4, and especially noticeable is her decent 2yr old runs over the Churchill Downs dirt, finishing 2nd in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies & winning G3 Golden Rod Stakes, so she has experience on the surface, which could be a determining factor. Her 3yr old season started out on the turf, winning the G3 Queen Cup in Tokyo and G1 Epsom Handicap at Royal Randwick against the boys. Her final prep race was G2 United Arab Emirates Derby at 10F over the dirt where she fended off the boys again and punched her ticket to the Derby. The well traveled filly has conquered the boys on both surfaces, so she will not be intimidated, and unlike her half brother, she has the ability to make the distance and with a solid 5 week layoff, she should well rested, but, she will need a far better PSR than the 68 she posted in the Emirates Derby to fend off this field, otherwise, it’s a Rags to Riches story and a filly in the Derby.
State Tower - $270,000 10-3-0-0
Goforwand Stables - Troll Tower x Fashion Statement
Don’t be fooled by the low earnings or the unimpressive record, this horse has pedigree on his side. Son of Troll Tower who sired last years Derby winner New Tower, who was also owned by Goforwand, the most successful stable in Derby history with two winners, the other being the filly Pegasus Song, its hard to deny the connections, both the owner and the horse, have history on their side. The maturing 3yr old has one all of his 3 starts this season, the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes, G3 El Camino Real Derby & Tampa Bay Derby. Not as impressive as the other top contenders, he makes this section based on family ancestry, but the negatives are all to glaring, primarily when it concerns is mother. The unraced mare, has birthed three horses from Troll Tower, none of them being performing exceptionally well on the track. But, if his fathers blood runs deeper, he is certainly a dark horse contender worth throwing some money at.
Maybe Contenders
Blessed – $350,000 7-2-2-0
Rainbow – Songandaprayer x Affluent
Owned by the 2008 Derby winning stable who took the win that year with filly Perfect Bell returns with a decent challenger for this year’s edition. The son of the expensive dud Songandaprayer, who hit the scenes fast and faded faster, does not it would seem have pedigree on his side. I’d give stats for his mother, but Google doesn’t seem to recognize her. The easily likeable 2yr old campaign, he appears to be peaking with wins in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes (like his pops) and G3 Flamingo Stakes. Though his showing in the G1 Florida Derby was a less than stellar showing, it wasn’t as bad as the 5th place finish would indicate either. He finished 9 lengths back of the winner Big N’Tough, but that could be chalked up to a quick turnaround from the Fountain Of Youth. Such questions of rest time will not be an excuse for this race however, only the massive weight of not flaming out like his sire.
Ditko – $671,250 10-2-5-2
Iron Racing - Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong
So, maybe he isn’t even a “Maybe” contender, but I like his consistency, finishing out of the money, nay, out of the top 3 in just one career start. He ended his 2yr old season with a win in the G1 Hollywood Futurity and has shown a propensity to hang around in his 3 starts this season. A 4 length loss to Big N’Tough in the Golden Gate Derby to finish 2nd, 3rd in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over the turf that saw Heat Seeker crush the competition and a really close 3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby again losing to Heat Seeker. He has raced the top horses and refused to fold, so he has the heart and courage to make things interesting. If the top horses don’t have their best days, Ditko could pull off the mild upset and finally have his breakthrough win. Or he could just show that he will never be nothing more than a nice horse to throw into a trifecta.
Sligeach – $479,125 6-3-1-1
Woodbury Stables - Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee
Sired by Dawn Patrol, who has produced 8 million dollar winning horses, most notably, Deux Francais, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen, but the classic distance pedigree comes from the pink side of the bracket in Fleet Renee, who from the stats I could find, won 2 G1 races, Mother Goose Stakes & Kentucky Oaks, so Sligeach (which I think is a city/town/place in Ireland) can go the distance. His most recent starts, the end of his 2yr old season, he won the G2 Norfolk Stakes and was a winner in his only start this season, the G3 Louisiana Derby, unfortunately, not one other Derby entrant was even in that race so it is hard to draw a comparison. My only concern is his stamina to go 10F, I must say, his pedigree, notably on his father’s side, suggests turf/sprinter and just one start as a 3yr old is always sketchy, he might’ve been a bit overprotected.
Tundra Sky - $978,000 6-3-2-0
Rainbow - Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder
The 2nd entrant from Rainbow stables, one of 3 stables to enter more than one horse, might actually be better than stable mate Blessed, and probably deserves to be higher, but it makes it more interesting for him down here. He could have the best sire in Thunder Arctic, 2X HOTY and 2X BC Classic winner and Derby/Belmont winner of any horse entered in the race. He has pedigree for days to discuss, a shaky 2yr old season, turned into an eye opening 3yr old season thus far. Winner of the G1 Donn Handicap, that saw him crush older horses and defeat horses like Regal Son, New Tower & Arctic Memories he followed that up with a very impressive 2nd in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby, where he ran a below average race and still finished ahead of Big N’Tough and close to race winner Road to Zion. He is probably the best chance Rainbow stable has of recapturing the glory of the 2008 Derby.
Rocky Balboa Contenders
Fireball – $224,000 7-2-1-0
Flush Farms - Medaglia D'oro x Henry's Slew
Fireball is the epitome of the Rocky Balboa contenders, son of well respected sire Medaglia D’oro, who won graded stakes at 3, 4 and 5, and finished 2nd countless times in other big graded stakes races, Fireball has the pedigree to get the job done or to disappoint horrendously. Noting the abysmal record of fouls out of Henry’s Slew, who dampens the excitement produced from mentioning the history of his father, he has his own record to stand on. A non-factor as a 2yr old, he struggled in his first start this season, but came back to win the Dulcify Quality Handicap and G2 Aami Vase, both on turf. He made his dirt debut at 3 in the G2 Arkansas Derby, finishing a decent 2nd to fellow Balboa contender Thyroid Storm. With minimal dirt experience, a weak bloodline on his mother’s side, and a history of disappointment from his fathers, I look for him to be their early, but eventually fade into the final turn.
Silver Sword – $142,500 5-1-1-1
Snowbank Farm – Dansilver x Demoness
This horse by all measure has failed to live up to his pedigree thus far, son of Demoness, top 2yr old Filly of 2002 and Dansilver 2yr old TC winner and superstar sprinter, Silver Sword has been somewhat of a bust. A dismal single race as a 2yr old, he started this year with a win in a minor stakes race on the turf and then transitioned to dirt. Though he has placed, his failure to win a single prep race given his ancestry is startling and has me questioning whether he should even be in the race, or if he would be better suited to running sprints like his father. A 3rd in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, 2nd in the G3 Lafayette Stakes at the more appropriate 7F and finished a well back 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial. Snowbank is throwing haymakers in this race with this entrant, but eventually one of them might land and pull off a Sarava and then fade into obscurity.
Thyroid Storm - $362,500 6-1-2-0
Underworld Stables – Kendane x Missy's Mirage
The first of two entrants from newcomer Underworld Stables, is the highest earning racer for his sire to date, and though his pedigree would suggest a turf specialist, his debut on the turf was a disaster of a debacle. Moved to the dirt he has displayed tenacity and is always lurking. A 2nd in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes that saw him lose a close race to State Tower and another 2nd in the G3 Gotham Stakes that saw him lose a photo to top filly Camera Shy shows he has some talent. Throw out a devastating 8th place finish in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he just hated the track, he finally broke through in his most recent start winning the G2 Arkansas Derby. If one horse in this field benefits from the extra distance of 10F, it is this one. For a new stable to have a horse with a punchers chance has to be pretty special, as long as he doesn’t repeat his performance in the Fountain Of Youth. His owner says he is the Giacamo of the race, I’d say more like Funny Cide/Afleet Alex.
Longshots
Golfo Blanco – $410,650 11-2-1-2
Yeguada Lore Toki - Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose
Golfo Blanco might have the least prestigious pedigree and has a lot of races, but with wildly mixed results. A 2yr old seasn midred by last place finishes, mid pack results overshadows the G1 victory near the end of last year. As a 3yr old, he has fared little better, with 4 races this year; it is a grab bag of results. A 7th in the G3 Holy Bull only managing to beat the lone filly ente3red in the race. A distant 4th in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby and 3rd in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. His lone win came in a non-graded stakes, The Sam F. Davis Stakes where he defeated a bunch of also-rans who won’t be showing up this Sunday. And, lets not forget, being a white horse, I imagine he will be brown by the time the race is over, covered in the dirt of the dozen or so other horses in front of him. Even Budweiser wouldn’t take a shot on this one.
Cold Come Back - $278,800 5-1-1-0
FDL Lodge – Revenge x Lady Justice
So FDL keeps Heat Seeker away and sends Cold Come Back in his place. Talk about sending a 3rd stringer instead of the first team all-star. This son of the legendary Revenge who accolades are well known is not matching his father’s success and is unfortunately showing signs he is more like his mother, the dreadful Lady Justice who never sniffed the money and it seems to be rubbing off on this horse a bit. 3 of his 5 career races have come on turf, his lone win was an allowance sprint as a 2yr old. In two career starts at 3, he finished 6th in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes on turf and showed signs of brilliance in the G1 Santa Anita Derby finishing just ahead of Ditko and losing in a photo to stable mate Heat Seeker who was making his first start on the dirt. It was either the start of good things to come, or the flash in the pan effort I believe it was.
Red Dawn - $221,750 11-0-3-3
Alydar Stables - Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora
The first of two entrants being sent to the race by Alydar Stables, it is the stables best chance for victory and it is a slim chance. He is also the 2nd horse in the race by sire Dawn Patrol, half brother to Sligeach. This winless horse in 11 career starts may have peaked as a mediocre 2 yr old. In four races at 3, he manages to finish in the money, but only makes a good trifecta pick. He ran a career best in the G2 Hutcheson Stakes at 7F, losing in a close 3rd. he was thoroughly throttled in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes finishing a distant 6th, made a quick 3 week turnaround and ran in the G2 San Felipe Stakes to finish a well beaten 4th. His final prep race he showed surprising form to finish 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, well behind race winner Find A Way. Red Dawn will need a miracle, but this isn’t 34th Street, its Kentucky, the Derby, the Run for the Roses for a horse that should be running for dandelions.
WTF?!?!? Hell has not Frozen over!
And now the what were they thinking portion. Someone slap these people upside the head and scream “what you thinking bout”.
Key Largo - $37,500 5-0-1-1
Alydar Stables - Balding Matters x Miss Music
The 2nd Alydar Stables entrant is probably the least accomplished runner in the race, the embodiment of long shot. I’m more apt to have a one night stand with my dream girl Paris Hilton before this horse ever wins the Kentucky Derby. If they ran this race 100 times, he would lose 100 times. Horrendous as a 2yr old, he showed signs of a spark at 3, a spark from a sparkler. 2nd in the Texas Heritage Stakes against claimers and 3rd in the G3 Flamingo Stakes in a career best effort behind race winner Blessed. Both parents have been relative busts in the breeding shed, outside of Iginla, son of Balding Matters, and none of that talent has seemed to rub off. But the saying goes you can’t win if you don’t run, but in this case, Key Largo wouldn’t win in a one horse field.
Out of Time - $56,250 4-0-2-0
Underworld Stables – Memcay x Xtra Special
The 2nd entrant from the new Underworld Stable (guess he picked better horses than I did) is a step above Key Largo and with the scratch condition it will be tough to harshly criticize. Unraced as 2 yr old, and son of the iconic Memcay, twice male turf horse of the year, which given Out of Times short career as a 3yr old, someone might be mishandling him. Bred for longer distances over the turf, he has run 4 times this year, nothing on turf and nothing over 8.5F. 2nd in his debut in the G3 Lecomte Stakes on the mud, which might explain the scratch condition, he followed up with a down right horrible 6th in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes and then another awful showing in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he finished 7th. Then he finished 2nd in a two horse field in the G3 Rebel Stakes and came out of that race injured. Questions abound whether the horse is healed enough to even enter the race if it was muddy, but given the long shot that is might be, this horse will be a solid bet. If not, he and Key Largo can battle it out for last.
Now, for my top 4 and the long shot.
1 - Road to Zion (F)
2 - Tundra Sky
3 - State Tower
4 - Big N' Tough
Long Shot - Thyroid Storm
Dead Last - Key Largo
That’s the preview. Hopefully you enjoyed it, if you didn’t like it, next time write the damn thing yourself then.
Have a nice day and good luck to all the entrants.
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Welcome to the 2011 PF Kentucky Derby Preview Special, I’m your host, Willis and you can call me Willis (and if one person even so much as thinks of doing the “What you talking bout Willis” joke, I will go Tanya Harding on your horse). The first race in the coveted Triple Crown will come you live Sunday, September 7th from the historic Churchill Downs in Kentucky and for a short history lesson on the track, I recommend Google.
The 10th running (give or take depending on when the archives feel like working) of this race drew a 16 horse field. We got big names, small names, no names, and who dat? All lined up to enter the starting gate for a run at immortality. 4 of the top 10 3 year old money earners have entered, Find A Way, Tundra Sky, Big N’Tough and last but certainly not least, our very own Winning Colors, as Road to Zion will be the lone filly to take on the boys. Some notable absences include A View To A Kill, the Wood Memorial winner owned by Otsego farms and Heat Seeker, owned by FDL Lodge and winner of the Santa Anita Derby.
But, with that said, we still have a deep and talented field for which I will get you up to speed on very shortly, but first, we got to pay some bills and go to commercial. Someone has to sponsor this gibberish!
(INSERT Advertisement Using Horses Here. you know, some random company who wouldn’t know a starting gate from a farm tractor to sell their product during a race they think is taking place in Alabama. Whoohoo they like horse racing, so you should to. Now go buy that Viagra because it boosts horsepower…….get it…..horsepower)
Well that was umm, yeah, now the fun part, to see how many hurt feelings I can cause throughout this Preview. (The over/under is 10) And don’t ask me post position, trust me if I knew, you’d know.
Top Contenders
Big N' Tough - $1,428,000 - 9-6-0-0
Rivendell Stable - Big N' Rich x Sovereign Belle
This horse is certainly one of the favorites to capture the Run for the Roses, and why not. A winner of his last 6 races since maturing late as a 2 yr old, this winner of the 2010 BC Juvenile came into his 3yr old campaign with the hype train honking and didn’t fail to deliver. Impressive wins in the G3 Risen Star and G1 Florida Derby, there is a lot to like about this Smarty Jones size horse, but I question his ability to make the 10 furlong distance. His breeding makes him suspect, as both his parents were equally incapable beyond 9 furlongs. He has a win at the Derby distance of 10F, but that was as a 2yr old and on turf, and with a very close win in the Florida Derby at 9F, can he hold his track record setting speed for an additional furlong which can be an eternity.
Find A Way - $1,210,000 6-2-0-2
Eureka Racing Stables - Wheelaway x Awesome Find
This homebred colt may lack the impressive parental lineage as Big N’Tough, he certainly makes up for in talent. An immature 2yr old, he began his 3yr old campaign with a nice victory in the G2 San Rafael Stakes, and then he took on older horses for the prestigious G1 Dubai Wold Cup, where he finished a close 3rd at the 10F distance, proving he is quite capable of lasting down the front stretch for home. His last race saw him set the track record in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass. The lone question will be his endurance, after running what some would consider a tough campaign, coming off back to back races on 3 weeks rest and entering the Derby on another 3 week layoff after running a massive race in the Toyota Blue Grass, will he have any gas left in the tank, and at $4 a gallon, I wouldn’t blame him if he came up empty.
Road to Zion - F – $2,626,000 13-6-3-0
Godolphin17 - Big N' Rich x Giant's K D
The only filly entered in the and half sister to race favorite Big N’ Tough, is a winner of her last 4, and especially noticeable is her decent 2yr old runs over the Churchill Downs dirt, finishing 2nd in the G1 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies & winning G3 Golden Rod Stakes, so she has experience on the surface, which could be a determining factor. Her 3yr old season started out on the turf, winning the G3 Queen Cup in Tokyo and G1 Epsom Handicap at Royal Randwick against the boys. Her final prep race was G2 United Arab Emirates Derby at 10F over the dirt where she fended off the boys again and punched her ticket to the Derby. The well traveled filly has conquered the boys on both surfaces, so she will not be intimidated, and unlike her half brother, she has the ability to make the distance and with a solid 5 week layoff, she should well rested, but, she will need a far better PSR than the 68 she posted in the Emirates Derby to fend off this field, otherwise, it’s a Rags to Riches story and a filly in the Derby.
State Tower - $270,000 10-3-0-0
Goforwand Stables - Troll Tower x Fashion Statement
Don’t be fooled by the low earnings or the unimpressive record, this horse has pedigree on his side. Son of Troll Tower who sired last years Derby winner New Tower, who was also owned by Goforwand, the most successful stable in Derby history with two winners, the other being the filly Pegasus Song, its hard to deny the connections, both the owner and the horse, have history on their side. The maturing 3yr old has one all of his 3 starts this season, the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes, G3 El Camino Real Derby & Tampa Bay Derby. Not as impressive as the other top contenders, he makes this section based on family ancestry, but the negatives are all to glaring, primarily when it concerns is mother. The unraced mare, has birthed three horses from Troll Tower, none of them being performing exceptionally well on the track. But, if his fathers blood runs deeper, he is certainly a dark horse contender worth throwing some money at.
Maybe Contenders
Blessed – $350,000 7-2-2-0
Rainbow – Songandaprayer x Affluent
Owned by the 2008 Derby winning stable who took the win that year with filly Perfect Bell returns with a decent challenger for this year’s edition. The son of the expensive dud Songandaprayer, who hit the scenes fast and faded faster, does not it would seem have pedigree on his side. I’d give stats for his mother, but Google doesn’t seem to recognize her. The easily likeable 2yr old campaign, he appears to be peaking with wins in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes (like his pops) and G3 Flamingo Stakes. Though his showing in the G1 Florida Derby was a less than stellar showing, it wasn’t as bad as the 5th place finish would indicate either. He finished 9 lengths back of the winner Big N’Tough, but that could be chalked up to a quick turnaround from the Fountain Of Youth. Such questions of rest time will not be an excuse for this race however, only the massive weight of not flaming out like his sire.
Ditko – $671,250 10-2-5-2
Iron Racing - Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong
So, maybe he isn’t even a “Maybe” contender, but I like his consistency, finishing out of the money, nay, out of the top 3 in just one career start. He ended his 2yr old season with a win in the G1 Hollywood Futurity and has shown a propensity to hang around in his 3 starts this season. A 4 length loss to Big N’Tough in the Golden Gate Derby to finish 2nd, 3rd in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes over the turf that saw Heat Seeker crush the competition and a really close 3rd G1 Santa Anita Derby again losing to Heat Seeker. He has raced the top horses and refused to fold, so he has the heart and courage to make things interesting. If the top horses don’t have their best days, Ditko could pull off the mild upset and finally have his breakthrough win. Or he could just show that he will never be nothing more than a nice horse to throw into a trifecta.
Sligeach – $479,125 6-3-1-1
Woodbury Stables - Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee
Sired by Dawn Patrol, who has produced 8 million dollar winning horses, most notably, Deux Francais, winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen, but the classic distance pedigree comes from the pink side of the bracket in Fleet Renee, who from the stats I could find, won 2 G1 races, Mother Goose Stakes & Kentucky Oaks, so Sligeach (which I think is a city/town/place in Ireland) can go the distance. His most recent starts, the end of his 2yr old season, he won the G2 Norfolk Stakes and was a winner in his only start this season, the G3 Louisiana Derby, unfortunately, not one other Derby entrant was even in that race so it is hard to draw a comparison. My only concern is his stamina to go 10F, I must say, his pedigree, notably on his father’s side, suggests turf/sprinter and just one start as a 3yr old is always sketchy, he might’ve been a bit overprotected.
Tundra Sky - $978,000 6-3-2-0
Rainbow - Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder
The 2nd entrant from Rainbow stables, one of 3 stables to enter more than one horse, might actually be better than stable mate Blessed, and probably deserves to be higher, but it makes it more interesting for him down here. He could have the best sire in Thunder Arctic, 2X HOTY and 2X BC Classic winner and Derby/Belmont winner of any horse entered in the race. He has pedigree for days to discuss, a shaky 2yr old season, turned into an eye opening 3yr old season thus far. Winner of the G1 Donn Handicap, that saw him crush older horses and defeat horses like Regal Son, New Tower & Arctic Memories he followed that up with a very impressive 2nd in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby, where he ran a below average race and still finished ahead of Big N’Tough and close to race winner Road to Zion. He is probably the best chance Rainbow stable has of recapturing the glory of the 2008 Derby.
Rocky Balboa Contenders
Fireball – $224,000 7-2-1-0
Flush Farms - Medaglia D'oro x Henry's Slew
Fireball is the epitome of the Rocky Balboa contenders, son of well respected sire Medaglia D’oro, who won graded stakes at 3, 4 and 5, and finished 2nd countless times in other big graded stakes races, Fireball has the pedigree to get the job done or to disappoint horrendously. Noting the abysmal record of fouls out of Henry’s Slew, who dampens the excitement produced from mentioning the history of his father, he has his own record to stand on. A non-factor as a 2yr old, he struggled in his first start this season, but came back to win the Dulcify Quality Handicap and G2 Aami Vase, both on turf. He made his dirt debut at 3 in the G2 Arkansas Derby, finishing a decent 2nd to fellow Balboa contender Thyroid Storm. With minimal dirt experience, a weak bloodline on his mother’s side, and a history of disappointment from his fathers, I look for him to be their early, but eventually fade into the final turn.
Silver Sword – $142,500 5-1-1-1
Snowbank Farm – Dansilver x Demoness
This horse by all measure has failed to live up to his pedigree thus far, son of Demoness, top 2yr old Filly of 2002 and Dansilver 2yr old TC winner and superstar sprinter, Silver Sword has been somewhat of a bust. A dismal single race as a 2yr old, he started this year with a win in a minor stakes race on the turf and then transitioned to dirt. Though he has placed, his failure to win a single prep race given his ancestry is startling and has me questioning whether he should even be in the race, or if he would be better suited to running sprints like his father. A 3rd in the G3 El Camino Real Derby, 2nd in the G3 Lafayette Stakes at the more appropriate 7F and finished a well back 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial. Snowbank is throwing haymakers in this race with this entrant, but eventually one of them might land and pull off a Sarava and then fade into obscurity.
Thyroid Storm - $362,500 6-1-2-0
Underworld Stables – Kendane x Missy's Mirage
The first of two entrants from newcomer Underworld Stables, is the highest earning racer for his sire to date, and though his pedigree would suggest a turf specialist, his debut on the turf was a disaster of a debacle. Moved to the dirt he has displayed tenacity and is always lurking. A 2nd in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes that saw him lose a close race to State Tower and another 2nd in the G3 Gotham Stakes that saw him lose a photo to top filly Camera Shy shows he has some talent. Throw out a devastating 8th place finish in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he just hated the track, he finally broke through in his most recent start winning the G2 Arkansas Derby. If one horse in this field benefits from the extra distance of 10F, it is this one. For a new stable to have a horse with a punchers chance has to be pretty special, as long as he doesn’t repeat his performance in the Fountain Of Youth. His owner says he is the Giacamo of the race, I’d say more like Funny Cide/Afleet Alex.
Longshots
Golfo Blanco – $410,650 11-2-1-2
Yeguada Lore Toki - Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose
Golfo Blanco might have the least prestigious pedigree and has a lot of races, but with wildly mixed results. A 2yr old seasn midred by last place finishes, mid pack results overshadows the G1 victory near the end of last year. As a 3yr old, he has fared little better, with 4 races this year; it is a grab bag of results. A 7th in the G3 Holy Bull only managing to beat the lone filly ente3red in the race. A distant 4th in the G2 United Arab Emirates Derby and 3rd in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes. His lone win came in a non-graded stakes, The Sam F. Davis Stakes where he defeated a bunch of also-rans who won’t be showing up this Sunday. And, lets not forget, being a white horse, I imagine he will be brown by the time the race is over, covered in the dirt of the dozen or so other horses in front of him. Even Budweiser wouldn’t take a shot on this one.
Cold Come Back - $278,800 5-1-1-0
FDL Lodge – Revenge x Lady Justice
So FDL keeps Heat Seeker away and sends Cold Come Back in his place. Talk about sending a 3rd stringer instead of the first team all-star. This son of the legendary Revenge who accolades are well known is not matching his father’s success and is unfortunately showing signs he is more like his mother, the dreadful Lady Justice who never sniffed the money and it seems to be rubbing off on this horse a bit. 3 of his 5 career races have come on turf, his lone win was an allowance sprint as a 2yr old. In two career starts at 3, he finished 6th in the G2 Peter Pan Stakes on turf and showed signs of brilliance in the G1 Santa Anita Derby finishing just ahead of Ditko and losing in a photo to stable mate Heat Seeker who was making his first start on the dirt. It was either the start of good things to come, or the flash in the pan effort I believe it was.
Red Dawn - $221,750 11-0-3-3
Alydar Stables - Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora
The first of two entrants being sent to the race by Alydar Stables, it is the stables best chance for victory and it is a slim chance. He is also the 2nd horse in the race by sire Dawn Patrol, half brother to Sligeach. This winless horse in 11 career starts may have peaked as a mediocre 2 yr old. In four races at 3, he manages to finish in the money, but only makes a good trifecta pick. He ran a career best in the G2 Hutcheson Stakes at 7F, losing in a close 3rd. he was thoroughly throttled in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes finishing a distant 6th, made a quick 3 week turnaround and ran in the G2 San Felipe Stakes to finish a well beaten 4th. His final prep race he showed surprising form to finish 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, well behind race winner Find A Way. Red Dawn will need a miracle, but this isn’t 34th Street, its Kentucky, the Derby, the Run for the Roses for a horse that should be running for dandelions.
WTF?!?!? Hell has not Frozen over!
And now the what were they thinking portion. Someone slap these people upside the head and scream “what you thinking bout”.
Key Largo - $37,500 5-0-1-1
Alydar Stables - Balding Matters x Miss Music
The 2nd Alydar Stables entrant is probably the least accomplished runner in the race, the embodiment of long shot. I’m more apt to have a one night stand with my dream girl Paris Hilton before this horse ever wins the Kentucky Derby. If they ran this race 100 times, he would lose 100 times. Horrendous as a 2yr old, he showed signs of a spark at 3, a spark from a sparkler. 2nd in the Texas Heritage Stakes against claimers and 3rd in the G3 Flamingo Stakes in a career best effort behind race winner Blessed. Both parents have been relative busts in the breeding shed, outside of Iginla, son of Balding Matters, and none of that talent has seemed to rub off. But the saying goes you can’t win if you don’t run, but in this case, Key Largo wouldn’t win in a one horse field.
Out of Time - $56,250 4-0-2-0
Underworld Stables – Memcay x Xtra Special
The 2nd entrant from the new Underworld Stable (guess he picked better horses than I did) is a step above Key Largo and with the scratch condition it will be tough to harshly criticize. Unraced as 2 yr old, and son of the iconic Memcay, twice male turf horse of the year, which given Out of Times short career as a 3yr old, someone might be mishandling him. Bred for longer distances over the turf, he has run 4 times this year, nothing on turf and nothing over 8.5F. 2nd in his debut in the G3 Lecomte Stakes on the mud, which might explain the scratch condition, he followed up with a down right horrible 6th in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes and then another awful showing in the G2 Fountain Of Youth Stakes where he finished 7th. Then he finished 2nd in a two horse field in the G3 Rebel Stakes and came out of that race injured. Questions abound whether the horse is healed enough to even enter the race if it was muddy, but given the long shot that is might be, this horse will be a solid bet. If not, he and Key Largo can battle it out for last.
Now, for my top 4 and the long shot.
1 - Road to Zion (F)
2 - Tundra Sky
3 - State Tower
4 - Big N' Tough
Long Shot - Thyroid Storm
Dead Last - Key Largo
That’s the preview. Hopefully you enjoyed it, if you didn’t like it, next time write the damn thing yourself then.
Have a nice day and good luck to all the entrants.
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