2011 Kentucky Derby Preview
15 colts and 1 filly are scheduled to race in this year’s Kentucky Derby; however, one horse is a “mudder” and will only race on an off track.
Let’s get straight to it… A breakdown of this year’s entrants.
Big N’ Tough (Big N’ Rich x Sovereign Belle)
Owner: Rivendell Stables
Breeder: Jersey Shore Stables
With a record of 9:6-0-0 and nearly $1.5 million in earnings this colt is a frontrunner to win this year’s Derby. He won at 10 furlongs as a two year old with a good time of 2:00.99. We expect that he will post a much better time as a 3 year old.
His wins include the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby. He has been carefully trained for this very race. He will be well-rested and ready to follow War Machine’s footsteps in becoming a BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby winner.
Matt’s Prediction: Will be surprised if this colt does not place in Top 3.
Blessed (Songandaprayer x Affluent)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Phoenix Hill Farm
This colt has a record of 7:2-2-0 and has won $350,000 in earnings. He is coming from a win in the G3 Flamingo Stakes, but when he faced Big N’ Tough in the Florida Derby he placed off the board – 5th. However, he had a rough trip and was not able to make up ground.
His problem in that race was that he prefers to drop back and make a late move and stunning run to the finish. However, he was not able to clear traffic in the relatively small field of 8. This field will be much larger and stronger than the Florida Derby; while he should be able to handle 10 furlongs – we wonder if he’ll be able to navigate past 15 other horses.
Matt’s Prediction: Will be running late. Could be an upset.
Cold Come Back (Revenge x Lady Justice)
Owner: FDL Lodge
Breeder: History’s Own Stable
This colt was purchased only a week ago by FDL Lodge with a big ticket price of $2 million dollars after he nearly beat another FDL colt Heat Seeker (who is running in the 2000 Guineas) in the Santa Anita Derby.
This colt posted an excellent time at 9F with 1:45.76 in the Santa Anita with a PSR of 114. He is coming into his own at precisely the right time. The question is whether or not FDL made the right choice in which colt to send to the Derby. But, it looks like the connections at FDL Lodge are looking to conquer both Triple Crowns with their 2 talented colts.
Matt’s Prediction: Should be there in the end. Looked strong in Santa Anita – should be able to go in the last furlong
Ditko (Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong)
Owner: Iron Racing
Breeder: Iron Racing
With a record of 10:2-5-2 and $671,250 this colt has earned a right to run for the Roses. He placed 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby with a time of 1:46.16. And last year placed 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
He may have earned a ticket to Kentucky, but we’re not sure how this colt will fare in that last furlong. He ran a 2:01.68 earlier this year. I just don’t think that’ll be enough to cut it in this year’s Derby.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt isn’t a favorite to win and even though he’s shown some good signs this year – I just don’t think he’ll have enough stamina to go a full 10 furlongs.
Find a Way (Wheelaway x Awesome Find)
Owner: Eureka Racing Stables
Breeder: Eureka Racing Stables
This colt is coming off his win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Dubai World Cup with a time of 2:00.56 on a slow track. He has a record of 6:2-0-2 with $1.21 million in earnings.
He did well in the Dubai World Cup on a slow track against older competition going up against last year’s Champion 3 Year old Colt (Regal Son) and the very talented Mystic River. However, racing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes he’ll only have 18 days of rest.
Matt’s Prediction: He has just over 2 weeks of rest before the Derby, but I don’t see that as a factor. He’ll be one to watch in the finish; expect a good result.
Fireball (Medaglia D'oro x Henry’s Slew)
Owner: Royal Flush Farms
Breeder: Fender Stables
This colt has a record of 7:2-1-0 with $224,000 in earnings. However, after a lackluster 2 year old campaign he has a record of 4:2-1-0 for this season. He most recently placed 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Thyroid Storm.
This colt will have to find another gear to run with the favorites of this race. He’s run at 10 furlongs twice (on turf) with both times 2:02.06 and 2:02.15.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Golfo Blanco (Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose)
Owner: Yeguada Lore Toki
Breeder: Yeguada Lore Toki
This colt has a record of 11:2-1-2 and $410,650 in lifetime earnings. He recently placed 4th in the UAE Derby and 3rd in the Wood Memorial Stakes. He was nearly 8 lengths behind both Road to Zion in the UAE Derby and A View to a Kill in the Wood Memorial.
This colt is another who is taking a step up in class here and will need some help to finish in the money. He ran a lackluster 2:02.20 in the UAE Derby earlier this year.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Key Largo (Balding Matters x Miss Music)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables
This colt is one of the most inexperienced horses starting in this year’s Derby with a record of 5:0-1-1 and a mere $37,500 in earnings. This colt recently placed 3rd in the Flamingo Stakes with a time of 1:48.14.
This colt will have to show some real speed and stamina he hasn’t shown as of yet to compete in this year’s Derby.
Matt’s Prediction: Another colt that won’t be a factor.
Out of Time (Memcay x Xtra Special)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Fender Stables
This young and inexperienced colt will only compete if the track is “wet/muddy” according to the scratch instructions. With a record of 4:0-2-0 and $56,250 in earnings this colt is making his first G1 start.
He has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and doesn’t look like he has the stamina to run a full 10; nor the speed for this race.
Matt’s Prediction: Another non-factor colt.
Red Dawn (Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables
This colt is Alydar Stables’ second entrant and looks like a more convincing entrant than stable partner. He boasts a record of 11:0-3-3 and $221,750 in earnings. Recently he placed 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
This colt came some 10 lengths behind Find a Way in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. While a better entrant than stable partner, doesn’t seem to be as talented as the favorites in this field.
Matt’s Prediction: Should place better than stable partner – but another horse that won’t place in the money.
Road to Zion (Big N’ Rich x Giant’s KD) - FILLY
Owner: Godolphin17
Breeder: Godolphin17
This filly is looking to do what Perfect Bell could not and become the first filly to win the Triple Crown and first 3 year old since War Machine. She has a record of 13:6-3-0 with $2,626,000 in lifetime earnings. She has won all three races that she has entered in this season.
In the UAE Derby she ran the perfect race; stalking for the major part of the race and smoothly taking control in the last few furlongs – coasting in to win easily. She posted a time of 2:00.91 – not extraordinary by PF-standards; but neither was this filly fully extended.
Matt’s Prediction: This filly is one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win.
Silver Sword (Dansilver x Demoness)
Owner: Snowbank Farms
Breeder: Snowbank Farms
This colt has a record of 5:1-1-1 with $142,500 in lifetime earnings. He has never raced at the G1 level, so he’s taking a major class jump this weekend. In his last start he placed 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, some 9 lengths off A View to a Kill.
This colt doesn’t look like he can handle 10 furlongs or the speed and class of this Kentucky Derby field. For 9 furlongs he finished in 1:48.96 (in the Wood Memorial).
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Sligeach (Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee)
Owner: Woodbury
Breeder: Woodbury
This colt is coming off a win at the G3 Louisiana Derby putting his record to 6:3-1-1 and $479,125 in lifetime earnings. He’s got 2 wins in his last two starts (G2 Norfolk Stakes), but hasn’t raced past 8.5 furlongs yet and is making his G1 debut in the Derby this weekend.
In his win in the Louisiana Derby he had a horrible trip, was explosive to capture the lead, then coasted in to win. His time of 1:42.08 isn’t anything to be excited about – but the way he did it was impressive. And he came back with a whopping ESN (if you take any clout in them) – 3485.427.
Matt’s Prediction: This horse could be an upset. He’s an unknown and showed impressive signs in his last outing. Wouldn’t be all that surprised by a Top 3 finish.
State Tower (Troll Tower x Fashion Statement)
Owner: Goforwand Stables
Breeder: Goforwand Stables
This colt has a record of 10:3-0-0 with $270,000 in earnings. His last 3 wins come from his last 3 starts – all at 8.5 furlongs and all on dirt. His best time comes in at 1:40.49 in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes. This colt, also has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and is making his first G1 appearance.
He is ready for a bump up in class. He has the speed and in his last race coasted winning wire to wire in decisive fashion. This is another colt that is a question mark. He hasn’t faced tough competition and hasn’t raced at 9+ furlongs.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt could also be an upset. Another unknown with some impressive races under his belt; will do well at 8 – 9 furlongs – the question is can he go 10?
Thyroid Storm (Kendane x Missy’s Mirage)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Parklands
This second Underworld colt has a bit more experience winning the G2 Arkansas Derby, putting his record to 6:1-2-0 with $362,500 in earnings. He hasn’t race in a G1 before, so this’ll be his first start at the G1 level.
In the Arkansas Derby he won with a time of 1:47.81 at 9 furlongs. I feel that 10 furlongs will be too far for this colt; and indeed the depth of this field as well.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Tundra Sky (Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Rainbow
This colt boasts a record of 6:3-2-0 with $978,000 in earnings. In his last race he placed second to Road to Zion in the UAE Derby. His only other start as a 3 year old was in the 9 furlong Donn Handicap where he won with a time of 1:47.38 beating Regal Son.
This colt is a good and respectable colt, but he couldn’t beat Road to Zion in the UAE Derby, and he’ll have a hard time beating her in the Derby. He’ll be out early, but I don’t expect him to hold his speed over the full 10 furlongs.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt could make his bid here and has a chance to place in the money; but I see him fading in the last furlong.
CONCLUSIONS
Road to Zion – My favorite to win
Big N’ Tough – 2nd favorite – Top 3 finisher
Find a Way – Will be impressive; Top 3 finisher
Cold Come Back – Will be in the battle. Could be an upset.
Blessed – Watch for this colt. Will be running hard in the last few furlongs
Top Upset Factors:
Sligeach
State Tower
15 colts and 1 filly are scheduled to race in this year’s Kentucky Derby; however, one horse is a “mudder” and will only race on an off track.
Let’s get straight to it… A breakdown of this year’s entrants.
Big N’ Tough (Big N’ Rich x Sovereign Belle)
Owner: Rivendell Stables
Breeder: Jersey Shore Stables
With a record of 9:6-0-0 and nearly $1.5 million in earnings this colt is a frontrunner to win this year’s Derby. He won at 10 furlongs as a two year old with a good time of 2:00.99. We expect that he will post a much better time as a 3 year old.
His wins include the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile and Florida Derby. He has been carefully trained for this very race. He will be well-rested and ready to follow War Machine’s footsteps in becoming a BC Juvenile and Kentucky Derby winner.
Matt’s Prediction: Will be surprised if this colt does not place in Top 3.
Blessed (Songandaprayer x Affluent)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Phoenix Hill Farm
This colt has a record of 7:2-2-0 and has won $350,000 in earnings. He is coming from a win in the G3 Flamingo Stakes, but when he faced Big N’ Tough in the Florida Derby he placed off the board – 5th. However, he had a rough trip and was not able to make up ground.
His problem in that race was that he prefers to drop back and make a late move and stunning run to the finish. However, he was not able to clear traffic in the relatively small field of 8. This field will be much larger and stronger than the Florida Derby; while he should be able to handle 10 furlongs – we wonder if he’ll be able to navigate past 15 other horses.
Matt’s Prediction: Will be running late. Could be an upset.
Cold Come Back (Revenge x Lady Justice)
Owner: FDL Lodge
Breeder: History’s Own Stable
This colt was purchased only a week ago by FDL Lodge with a big ticket price of $2 million dollars after he nearly beat another FDL colt Heat Seeker (who is running in the 2000 Guineas) in the Santa Anita Derby.
This colt posted an excellent time at 9F with 1:45.76 in the Santa Anita with a PSR of 114. He is coming into his own at precisely the right time. The question is whether or not FDL made the right choice in which colt to send to the Derby. But, it looks like the connections at FDL Lodge are looking to conquer both Triple Crowns with their 2 talented colts.
Matt’s Prediction: Should be there in the end. Looked strong in Santa Anita – should be able to go in the last furlong
Ditko (Clever Yank x Lan Kwai Fong)
Owner: Iron Racing
Breeder: Iron Racing
With a record of 10:2-5-2 and $671,250 this colt has earned a right to run for the Roses. He placed 3rd in the Santa Anita Derby with a time of 1:46.16. And last year placed 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
He may have earned a ticket to Kentucky, but we’re not sure how this colt will fare in that last furlong. He ran a 2:01.68 earlier this year. I just don’t think that’ll be enough to cut it in this year’s Derby.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt isn’t a favorite to win and even though he’s shown some good signs this year – I just don’t think he’ll have enough stamina to go a full 10 furlongs.
Find a Way (Wheelaway x Awesome Find)
Owner: Eureka Racing Stables
Breeder: Eureka Racing Stables
This colt is coming off his win in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and a 3rd place finish in the Dubai World Cup with a time of 2:00.56 on a slow track. He has a record of 6:2-0-2 with $1.21 million in earnings.
He did well in the Dubai World Cup on a slow track against older competition going up against last year’s Champion 3 Year old Colt (Regal Son) and the very talented Mystic River. However, racing in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes he’ll only have 18 days of rest.
Matt’s Prediction: He has just over 2 weeks of rest before the Derby, but I don’t see that as a factor. He’ll be one to watch in the finish; expect a good result.
Fireball (Medaglia D'oro x Henry’s Slew)
Owner: Royal Flush Farms
Breeder: Fender Stables
This colt has a record of 7:2-1-0 with $224,000 in earnings. However, after a lackluster 2 year old campaign he has a record of 4:2-1-0 for this season. He most recently placed 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Thyroid Storm.
This colt will have to find another gear to run with the favorites of this race. He’s run at 10 furlongs twice (on turf) with both times 2:02.06 and 2:02.15.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Golfo Blanco (Octagonal Waltz x Golden Rose)
Owner: Yeguada Lore Toki
Breeder: Yeguada Lore Toki
This colt has a record of 11:2-1-2 and $410,650 in lifetime earnings. He recently placed 4th in the UAE Derby and 3rd in the Wood Memorial Stakes. He was nearly 8 lengths behind both Road to Zion in the UAE Derby and A View to a Kill in the Wood Memorial.
This colt is another who is taking a step up in class here and will need some help to finish in the money. He ran a lackluster 2:02.20 in the UAE Derby earlier this year.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Key Largo (Balding Matters x Miss Music)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables
This colt is one of the most inexperienced horses starting in this year’s Derby with a record of 5:0-1-1 and a mere $37,500 in earnings. This colt recently placed 3rd in the Flamingo Stakes with a time of 1:48.14.
This colt will have to show some real speed and stamina he hasn’t shown as of yet to compete in this year’s Derby.
Matt’s Prediction: Another colt that won’t be a factor.
Out of Time (Memcay x Xtra Special)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Fender Stables
This young and inexperienced colt will only compete if the track is “wet/muddy” according to the scratch instructions. With a record of 4:0-2-0 and $56,250 in earnings this colt is making his first G1 start.
He has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and doesn’t look like he has the stamina to run a full 10; nor the speed for this race.
Matt’s Prediction: Another non-factor colt.
Red Dawn (Dawn Patrol x Tora Tora Tora)
Owner: Alydar Stables
Breeder: Alydar Stables
This colt is Alydar Stables’ second entrant and looks like a more convincing entrant than stable partner. He boasts a record of 11:0-3-3 and $221,750 in earnings. Recently he placed 3rd in the G1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
This colt came some 10 lengths behind Find a Way in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes. While a better entrant than stable partner, doesn’t seem to be as talented as the favorites in this field.
Matt’s Prediction: Should place better than stable partner – but another horse that won’t place in the money.
Road to Zion (Big N’ Rich x Giant’s KD) - FILLY
Owner: Godolphin17
Breeder: Godolphin17
This filly is looking to do what Perfect Bell could not and become the first filly to win the Triple Crown and first 3 year old since War Machine. She has a record of 13:6-3-0 with $2,626,000 in lifetime earnings. She has won all three races that she has entered in this season.
In the UAE Derby she ran the perfect race; stalking for the major part of the race and smoothly taking control in the last few furlongs – coasting in to win easily. She posted a time of 2:00.91 – not extraordinary by PF-standards; but neither was this filly fully extended.
Matt’s Prediction: This filly is one of the favorites, if not the favorite to win.
Silver Sword (Dansilver x Demoness)
Owner: Snowbank Farms
Breeder: Snowbank Farms
This colt has a record of 5:1-1-1 with $142,500 in lifetime earnings. He has never raced at the G1 level, so he’s taking a major class jump this weekend. In his last start he placed 4th in the G2 Wood Memorial Stakes, some 9 lengths off A View to a Kill.
This colt doesn’t look like he can handle 10 furlongs or the speed and class of this Kentucky Derby field. For 9 furlongs he finished in 1:48.96 (in the Wood Memorial).
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Sligeach (Dawn Patrol x Fleet Renee)
Owner: Woodbury
Breeder: Woodbury
This colt is coming off a win at the G3 Louisiana Derby putting his record to 6:3-1-1 and $479,125 in lifetime earnings. He’s got 2 wins in his last two starts (G2 Norfolk Stakes), but hasn’t raced past 8.5 furlongs yet and is making his G1 debut in the Derby this weekend.
In his win in the Louisiana Derby he had a horrible trip, was explosive to capture the lead, then coasted in to win. His time of 1:42.08 isn’t anything to be excited about – but the way he did it was impressive. And he came back with a whopping ESN (if you take any clout in them) – 3485.427.
Matt’s Prediction: This horse could be an upset. He’s an unknown and showed impressive signs in his last outing. Wouldn’t be all that surprised by a Top 3 finish.
State Tower (Troll Tower x Fashion Statement)
Owner: Goforwand Stables
Breeder: Goforwand Stables
This colt has a record of 10:3-0-0 with $270,000 in earnings. His last 3 wins come from his last 3 starts – all at 8.5 furlongs and all on dirt. His best time comes in at 1:40.49 in the G3 Santa Catalina Stakes. This colt, also has not raced past 8.5 furlongs and is making his first G1 appearance.
He is ready for a bump up in class. He has the speed and in his last race coasted winning wire to wire in decisive fashion. This is another colt that is a question mark. He hasn’t faced tough competition and hasn’t raced at 9+ furlongs.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt could also be an upset. Another unknown with some impressive races under his belt; will do well at 8 – 9 furlongs – the question is can he go 10?
Thyroid Storm (Kendane x Missy’s Mirage)
Owner: Underworld Stables
Breeder: Parklands
This second Underworld colt has a bit more experience winning the G2 Arkansas Derby, putting his record to 6:1-2-0 with $362,500 in earnings. He hasn’t race in a G1 before, so this’ll be his first start at the G1 level.
In the Arkansas Derby he won with a time of 1:47.81 at 9 furlongs. I feel that 10 furlongs will be too far for this colt; and indeed the depth of this field as well.
Matt’s Prediction: Won’t be a factor in this race.
Tundra Sky (Thunder Arctic x Skyfinder)
Owner: Rainbow
Breeder: Rainbow
This colt boasts a record of 6:3-2-0 with $978,000 in earnings. In his last race he placed second to Road to Zion in the UAE Derby. His only other start as a 3 year old was in the 9 furlong Donn Handicap where he won with a time of 1:47.38 beating Regal Son.
This colt is a good and respectable colt, but he couldn’t beat Road to Zion in the UAE Derby, and he’ll have a hard time beating her in the Derby. He’ll be out early, but I don’t expect him to hold his speed over the full 10 furlongs.
Matt’s Prediction: This colt could make his bid here and has a chance to place in the money; but I see him fading in the last furlong.
CONCLUSIONS
Road to Zion – My favorite to win
Big N’ Tough – 2nd favorite – Top 3 finisher
Find a Way – Will be impressive; Top 3 finisher
Cold Come Back – Will be in the battle. Could be an upset.
Blessed – Watch for this colt. Will be running hard in the last few furlongs
Top Upset Factors:
Sligeach
State Tower
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