A Gleam Handicap

This week's featured race comes to us from Hollywood Park. This will be the 6th installment of the 7 furlong race for fillies and mares. In it's history, there have been a few things that can be counted on. The race will be run on a "fast" track and the winner will need to be fast (100+ PSR each year). The list of previous winners looks like this:

• 2003: Royal Dame - 1:22.33 (101 PSR)
• 2004: Flying Roller Girl - 1:21.02 (119)
• 2005: Lava Drop - 1:21.84 (106)
• 2007: Irene's Affair - 1:21.39 (113)
• 2008: Miss Fitz - 1:22.05 (103)

Let's continue with some fast facts before we get to this year's race.

• At the time, Flying Roller Girl's effort was the World Record mark.
• The smallest field was in the inaugural race when only two horses went to the post. The very next year brought the largest field as ten horses gave it a shot. The other fields were then three, seven, and six.
• The smallest winning margin came in last year's race, as Miss Fitz beat Floating by 1.25 lengths. The largest winning distance came in the 2005 version, with Lava Drop besting 2003 winner, Royal Dame, by 14.5 lengths.
• The first three winners all came from the number one post position. Since then, the winners have come from the number 3 and 4 holes.
• The race has produced three of the top-100 times for the distance. Flying Roller Girl's win checks in at 11th, Irene's Affair's effort was good for 56th, and Unbridled Energy's second place effort in 2004 put her in 63rd.

Ok, on to this year's version...

• Ab-Daledigeath: In the midst of a nice season. Two wins from six starts, plus two other on the board finishes. Coming off a win at this same track in the 6 furlong Los Angeles Handicap. Ran that one in a track record 1:07.89 (111 PSR). This will be her 4th start at this distance/surface on the year. The first two were very impessive: a win in 1:21.34 (51st best all-time) and a second in 1:21.00 (10th best). The third time definitely wasn't a charm though, finishing last in 1:23.37. It wasn't a rest issue or an injury issue. I'd guess maybe a track thing, but she performed decent enough on the track the previous year in the Breeders Cup Sprint. So, who knows? Just one of those things, I guess. It'd be a lot more worrisome if she hadn't been so impressive last time out. She has run this distance at this track previously. Only a 5th place finish in the Railbird Stakes last year, but in a decent enough time (1:22.15, 100 PSR). It's going to take a very good performance to beat her...unless she has another of those "just one of those things" days.
• Causality: One win from four tries on the season. The win came in her initial start of the season. She followed that with three fairly comparable efforts, just without much to show for it. Has yet to try this distance this year...at least on dirt. Her last start was over 7 furlongs on the turf, where she finished 4th in the Jungle Dawn Classic in 1:23.71. This will be her first ever start at this track. She has just two previous efforts at this distance/surface. One was an uninspriring effort on a muddy track, but the other was an impressive 2nd in 1:21.77 (128th best). Duplicating her best effort would definitely put her in the mix, but I'm thinking that a high 1:21 won't be good enough in this field.
• Clever Critter: Dropping down in distance after three straight runs of 8.5 furlongs to start the year. The last one was over this track and resulted in a nice 3rd (103 PSR). She has actually shown quite an affinity for the track in her career with a record of 4:2-1-1 with an average PSR of 102. She will be making just her 4th start at this distance/surface. Actually, she will be making her yearly start at this distance/surface. That's right, she did it once at 2, once at 3, once at 4, and now this year. She does have two wins from the three starts, but her times have gotten slower each year. Her best was at 2, when she ran 1:22.76 (468th). I'm actually quite surprised by her times. With her speed, I'd think she'd be a natural for this distance. Maybe it was just circumstances. She did win her first one by open lengths (8.5) after all. Considering her past efforts at this track, I think you have to figure her for some kind of check in this one.
• Daydreamer: WARNING! The following is not for the thin of skin or faint of heart. If that applies to you, please use your own discretion before going on this ride. You have been warned. Enter at your own risk... Ok, to start with, this is nothing against the trainer of this particular horse. They've just happened to show up in the entries of this races with some perfect material for me to go on a rant about. Take a look at Daydreamer's average PSR column. To average 55 in six starts is not a good sign. Either the horse is outside their peak (before or after) or is just plain bad. There is another possibility though...mismanagement. This horse doesn't particularly like turf. It definitely isn't it's best surface. Yet, her first five starts of the year were on turf. Now, there are horses out there that have to run on surfaces that aren't exactly ideal becuase no surface is really ideal for them. I've had a few of those myself...it happens. But this one actually LOVES "fast" dirt, which as we all know (or should) is what the overwhelming majority of dirt races end up being. Now, there's nothing wrong with trying out the other surface on occasion, even if it isn't ideal. But, to consistently do it (and unsuccessfully at that) when there's a better option being ignored? Why? Those preferences do mean something. All things being equal, you're more likely to get a better performance from your horse on the surface they prefer. Even to those who don't have the HRFan software, there is a wealth of information available...from the past performance sheets, to all those that are always offering help on the forum and chat, to those that are willing to express opinions about horses. That being said, not only were this horse's first five starts this year on turf, they were also all at least a mile (4 - 1 mile starts and 1 - 1 9/16 miles!). So what you might say? Well, this horse's stamina is listed as "Poor". I will grant you, that these are just a guide and there's nothing wrong with pushing the envelope a little to see what the true limit is. But, when it's shown once (or twice even) that it is in fact a true "Poor", then what exactly is the point in continuing to do it? Trying to force square pegs into round holes generally doesn't work too well. Now, I can already hear some of the objections to the criticism I levied here..."but, how can you be so harsh when the horse has picked up checks in four of those five starts?" That is true. Four checks in five starts is welcome in any stable...especially the newer ones. I will say this though. Without access to previous race cards, I can't tell if this is the case here or not, but sticking horses in where they don't belong (this horse did finish dead last in all five races...trounced in three and well-beaten in all)...hoping for a small field (guaranteed check) just rubs me the wrong way. I understand the concept, but I don't see how there can be any enjoyment at all in doing it that way. I'd much rather see one of my horses run a really nice race, show some ability, and just miss out on a check than run dead last, beaten by 26 lengths, post a 16 PSR, and pick up a 4th place check. Maybe it's just me though. I have one more thing to counter the 4 out of 5 checks people. When this horse was placed where she belongs her last time out (on dirt and very short), she actually showed some ability (a decent time and a career best PSR of 86), beat some horses to the line for the first time all year (finsishing a nice 2nd), and picked up a bigger check than she did in all those other races. Kind of makes you wonder what her year may have looked like had she been placed like that all along, eh? Ok, that's enough for the ranting. Time to get down off the soapbox, put it away, and get back to the race at hand. Northern Lights - hopefully, you don't take this this wrong way. Like I said, it just provided a bunch of "hot button" material for me to "go off" on. Hopefully, it ends up helping someone out there. Anyway, take it for what's it's worth....I'm sure some consider it the ravings of a madman. Oh yeah, this horse will be scratching out of this one and heading to another spot that's probably a bit more appropriate for her...a lower level, same age horses, shorter distance, and it'll give her a few more days rest. She has a better chance to do well in that race than she would have here.
• Dynamica: Turf horse trolling for a check way above her level. Thankfully, will be scratching out and heading to a much more appropriate place for her.
• Hell Hath No Fury: 1:23.25, 1:23.24, and 1:24.49, if I told you that these were three of her most recent times at this distance, you'd probably think the rest of this comment would be why she doesn't belong here. Well, they are and I'm not. 7 furlongs is right in this one's wheelhouse. I don't know what to say about those times. They shocked me when I saw them. The last two are from consecutive races this year, and I'm still ready to give her a pass for them. Why is that? Well, she did bounce back in her last outing to run a 1:21.31 (her 2nd best ever and 44th on the all-time list). Plus, she's had a couple of really nice performances at 8.5 furlongs right in the middle of that lackluster 7 furlong run. Besides the 44th best time, she has two other top-100 times with 1:21.18 being her best (30th). In addition, she has two other sub-1:22 times that aren't top-100. See, the distance is right in her wheelhouse...she's just happened to throw some clunkers in along the way too (more than just those three mentioned actually). She's run this distance at this track twice before (the aforementioned other two sub-1:22 times) coming in 2nd and 4th. Her only other appearance at the track was in a win at 8.5 furlongs (also mentioned previously). Her PSR average at the track is almost 105. As long as she doesn't throw in one of those clunkers (which she's avoided at this track so far), you have to figure she's one of the live shots in this one.
• Perfect Burn: This sure seems like a completely random place for this one to show up. This will only be her 4th start since the end of her 2YO season, and just her second this year. She's never come close to winning a race...11 lengths is the closest she's ever finished. Her career best PSR is at this distance. But, it's a 70. She's run this distance one time in her career and finished in 1:24.23. She finished 9th of 11 starters in her last race...and that was in a Starter Allowance at Shenandoah Downs. I'm not sure what else there is to say. Kind of looks like a thrown away entry fee when you add it all up.
• Rose: Coming into this year, she had only ever won at 8.5 furlongs. Well, she looked awful when she tried that distance earlier this year. It does make one wonder if she's on the downside of her career. She did post a win this year at 6 furlongs, though it was only in a decent time (1:09.97, 80 PSR). She's tried 7 furlongs twice in her career. Once was as a 2YO, and isn't all that relevant. The other was this year, and she did it in 1:22.44 (337th best) finishing 7 lengths behind Ab-Daledigaeth. She's raced three times at this track, finishing 1st, 3rd, and 11th. Her average PSR here is 96. With her speed, I think she would have been a really interesting 7 furlong horse...last year. She does seem to be on the downside though. With some of these in this one, that's not good.
• Run With The Bulls: Another horse trolling for a check, but this one is probably scratching into an even worse race for her...an open race (i.e. against males) at a distance that's probably just too far for her. It might be lucky for the connections that I do the horses alphabetically, as I've already gotten my big rant off my chest. This one has actually tried 7 furlongs before, and finished in 1:28.91. That's like a zip code away from where the winner of this one will finish. Actually, this one has always pretty much finished a zip code away from the leader...until her only start this year at Shenandoah Downs. Anyone can feel free to file this away for further use. If your horse gets trounced everywhere else, but happens to run a close race at Shenandoah Downs, that isn't a sign to go try the "everywhere elses" again...it's a sign to stick at Shenandoah Downs.
• Smart Habit: She's back on a decent amount of rest this time, which should make her quite a threat in this one. Two wins from six starts this year, including that super-impressive win at a mile two starts back. Why super-impressive? It was the 6th best time ever run and it wasn't done on the best track (just a "good" rating). She has run once at this distance this year, finishing second to Ab-Daledigaeth (I think I've finally learned how to spell this without looking it up now!) by three lengths in 1:21.89 (161st best). Her only other start at this distance came in her second career start as a 2YO...not a lot to take out of that one that will have any bearing on this one. Her only career start at this track came last time out, where previously discussed rest issues adversely affected her causing a last place finish. Could this be where she gets her revenge?
• One could make a case for any of three or four different horses to prevail in this one. I think I'll go with maybe a bit of an upset in some people's eyes. Give me Smart Habit to bounce back in a big way. Hell Hath No Fury and Ab-Daledigaeth to round out the tri. And if you're feeling adventurous, Clever Critter (or Rose, but I'm leaning towards CC) to finish out the super.