Initial Photo Finish Power Rankings - Top 25 Overall.

Since we're waiting on results today (and it looks like I finally have the program working the way I want it to), I figured I'd post the intitial Power Rankings for the year. I know I used that name last year for a bit, but this is something completely different. I just couldn't think of anything better to call it than Power Rankings. Anyway, without further ado, here they are!

• The first three columns should be pretty self-explanatory.
• Average points comes from all points accumulated by the horse all year divided by the number of starts they've made. Horses accumulate points by finishing "on the board" in a race. Each race has a designated point value based on it's grade and purse. Therefore, a $500,000 G1 is worth much more than an ungraded $50,000 race.
• Average race strength comes from adding up the strength of each race the horse has run in and then dividing by the number of starts. A single race's strength is determined by adding up every runner in the race's average points and then dividing by the number of entries in said race.
• The Power Ranking number is derived by simply multiplying the average points and average race strength. Just a quick note. The multiplication in this table might not work out exactly as each column has been limited to three decimal places and in the original sheet (where the actual multiplication takes place) the full numbers are used.
• The average PSR isn't used in the Power Rankings in any way. It's just provided here as an extra column of data...something else to chew on as it were. Stats geeks just can't help including data!
• How does a horse with a 65 PSR average rank so high? Well, after her initial race where she posted an 11 PSR, she won a $350,000 G1 and finished 2nd in a $250,000 G1.
• Is Double Dome really the 5th best horse? Well, that certainly remains to be seen. But, he certainly came up big at the right moment. All his points come from winning a $1,600,000 G1. A race that is coming in with a 2.364 strength number at the moment.
• Will running below your level hurt your ranking much? Well, it certainly didn't help A Bus out much as he has the second best average points, but was leap-frogged by a couple of horses with better race strengths. That $150,000 G2 win doesn't bring a lot of points to the table compared to what a G1 would have. His second place in a $250,000 G1 scored more points for him, plus brought in a better strength score. Luckily for him, 9 of the 11 horses in the G2 have scored points already so it's strength score isn't completely terrible.
• Another example of how your ranking can be affected: Braveheart, one of the best horses in the game, has two races so far. One is a 3rd place finish in a $1,500,000 G1. The other is a win in a $100,000 G3. That 3rd place finish accounts for a whopping 91% of his point total. Plus, the G1's strength score comes in at a very strong 2.529 while the lowly G3 drags his average way down by checking in at .497!
• If you asked a variety of people who the best 3YO colt was, you'd probably get a bunch of "Machete" or "Taco Bell" replies. Yet, they're no where to be found in the top-25. Machete and Taco Bell have both raced twice...against each other. So, they're both being dragged down by the same factors. For one, both races have been G2's...so less points available to start with. Secondly, their race strength is poor so far with a .685 and a .351. They have Bold N' Honorable to thank for the first score as he's the only other horse in either race (19 total entries combined) to bring any significant points to the table.
• This week's races will have a significant bearing on the rankings. The Dubai races, especially the World Cup, are worth a TON of points. It probably isn't possible for the World Cup winner NOT to be at the top next week.